Iron Ore Junior Comparison

Great stuff Kennas. WHy hadnt anyone thought of doing this sooner? Im glad you decided to share

prawn_86 said:

Great stuff Kennas. WHy hadnt anyone thought of doing this sooner? Im glad you decided to share

Click to expand...

Yeah, should have. I'm still working with the gold one and should update for everyone. Should have done a CSG one too...

Updated and included SDL.

Covered:

AGO
BRM
GIR
IOH
GWR
BCI
EMG
FRS
POL
BMY
SDL


Comments/corrections/additional info welcome.

Kennas,

Thanks mate for all the advice i read from yourself, it really helps me develop as a trader. Maybe i can one day help some others when i become experienced.

Really like this thread. I myself own FMG on margin.

Just wondering what Mag (m.t) stood for. I had another thought on the thread whether comparing the juniors in each sector to a heavyweight would be a good idea, for comparsion?

liquidmaker said:

Just wondering what Mag (m.t) stood for.

Click to expand...

Magnetite (megatons / million tons)

Magnetite is more expensive to produce as it requires benefication to bring the grade up to standards. DSO is Direct Shipping Ore and is from another form of iron ore called hematite.

Hope this helps mate.

liquidmaker said:

Kennas,

Thanks mate

I had another thought on the thread whether comparing the juniors in each sector to a heavyweight would be a good idea, for comparsion?

Click to expand...

My pleasure.

Added in FMG as a pure IO major play for comparison.

Also added DMM and CFE.
BRM still has the cheapest Mag.
DMM takes over from FRS as the cheapest Hematite, although there's some questions regarding DMM impurities - may require beneficiation.

I've also put in a hyperlink to each companies website. Just click on their share code.

Remember when comparing these that there are many factors at play that effect value. The ore depth, imprutites, access to infrastructure, country risk, management, for example, are very important. So, while the numbers here are a good initial guide, the other factors must be considered.

List:

FMG
AGO
BRM
GIR
IOH
GWR
BCI
EMG
FRS
POL
BMY
SDL
DMM
CFE

this is outstanding guys, some really fantastic information, congrats kennans for your work.really appreciated.So, on the latest information, what are everyones thoughts, which iron ore junior has the greatest potential in terms of share price.obviously BRM is the cheapest and if they can get a JV partner soon then they will be looking very good, sdl also has high potential.Just wondering why MMX and MGX had been left out of this group, both a iron ore producers/explorers, although its for juniors i would consider them in the same class as ago and brm, they are just a tad further developed.keep up the great work

JnrTrader said:

Just wondering why MMX and MGX had been left out of this group, both a iron ore producers/explorers,

Click to expand...

I'll add them in JrT, cheers.

kennas said:

I'll add them in JrT, cheers.

Click to expand...

I'm struggling with MGX financials though. Their last quarterlies are a dogs breakfast for getting an understanding of their position. Perhaps deliberately. Can you tell me how much cash and debt they have?


I have updated the spreadsheet with current share prices and have also added a filter. It is currently filtered in alphabetical order. To see who has the lowest market cap, simply click on the arrow next to 'MC' and choose the 'smallest to largest'. The table will adjust. To see who has the lowest price per ton of DSO, go to the 'Price per m/t' column and click the 'DSO' arrow, then cloose 'smallest to largest'.

While this analysis may be handy right now, it may be even more handy when we get back to a bottom ish position in the market and IO is in major demand again. It may take some time, but hey, we've got time...

Right now the market troubles me.

Kennas

Thanks for the spreadsheet. Well done. I was wondering if you can GBG onto it. Will the spreadsheet work if I just copy and paste and add others on to it?
You got MML on the spreadsheet it should be MMX for Murchisons.

vincent191 said:

Kennas

Thanks for the spreadsheet. Well done. I was wondering if you can GBG onto it. Will the spreadsheet work if I just copy and paste and add others on to it?
You got MML on the spreadsheet it should be MMX for Murchisons.

Click to expand...

Yes, you can do that. You just need basic Excel and you can work it out.

But I'll add GBG in myself anyway, cheers.

Funny about the MMX code. I got confused because their website is MML.

www.mml.net.au

My method of selecting which junior to invest in is to pick the ones with the highest amount of DSO resource. Mining DSO is a no brainer, all you have to do is dig it up, crush it and ship.

With magnetite it is a different story. It will need huge amounts of investment to refine the bugger before you can ship it.

The other factor to consider is availability of infrastructure, preferably it should be as close as possible to rail & port facilities. No use having a large deposit of DSO but you have to pay huge prices to transport it.

So, bearing transport costs in mind if you have a large magnetite deposit but close to rail & port facilities the savings on transport can often off set the extra cost of processing magnetite.

The next important factor is to have good shareholders who can offer financial backing. This is where the Chinese comes in. Not only are they prepared to invest but they have marketing expertise. Provided the marketing/selling is done at arm's length this is a big plus.

Anyone else got anything other thing to add? Most welcome, we need all the help we can get.

some more for the list

had included all options in determining mc

several of these co's have placements and cash arriving over the next few weeks (will keep thread updated)

in determining ev, have used the as suggested mc-cash+debt

some sa fe'ees

co CXM
shares 269,330,665
options 3,475,000 ($695,000 if exercised, all itm)
total 272,805,665
sp .27
mc $73,657,752.95
cash $9,159,000
jorc dso 13.3Mt @ 57.7% fe, 4.8% sio2, 2.8% al2o3, 5.0% loi, 0.51% p indicated, 0.8Mt @ 56.6% fe, 5.2% sio2, 2.5% al2o3, 4.0% loi, 0.57% p inferred
jorc magnetite nil
prod target 1.6Mt p/a from mid 2010
target dso unknown
target magnetite currently 568.4Mt - 1,202.4Mt (cxm's 40% share)
ev $64,498,752.95
comments cxm expected to finalise jv with wisco in july, wilgerup da for export expected july

co IFE
shares 40,000,003
options 10,700,000 ($21.57M approx if exercised, nil itm)
total 50,700,003
sp .28
mc $14,196,000.84
cash $3,922,000
jorc dso nil
jorc magnetite 35Mt @ 29.9% Fe, 30.4% SiO2, 9.54% Al2O3, 0.04% P indicated; 24.9Mt @ 31.7% Fe, 30.2% SiO2, 8.2% Al2O3, 0.05% P inferred; 215.6Mt @ 27.7% Fe, 44.0% SiO2, 2.69% Al2O3, 0.19% P, 4.82% loi (ife 40% interest 110Mt all up)
prod target 2-4Mt p/a (wilcherry hill, TFR 20% interest) commencing 2011
target dso unknown
target magnetite 540 - 1040 Mt @ 25-30% Fe
ev $10,274,000.84
comments wisco 50/50 jv still in discussion (wisco still undertaking dd), has identified dso at hercules, 20M shares to be released from escrow in july (likely TRF's holding, ife spin-off from trf)

co LML
shares 75,321,221
options 40,736,854 ($11.75M approx if exercised, nil itm)
total 116,058,075
sp .089
mc $10,329,168.67
cash $2,213,000
jorc dso 7-10Kt @ 66.2% Fe, 2.02% SiO2, 1.31% Al2O3, 0.04% P, 1.85% loi (indonesia, 45% interest 3,150-4,500t)
jorc magnetite 55Mt @ 20.6% dtr inferred (60% interest 33Mt @ 20.6% dtr)
prod target 250Kt p/a (indonesia, 45% interest 112,500t p/a)
target dso 0.9 - 2.6Mt @ 60-68% Fe (indonesia, 45% interest 405Kt-1.17Mt)
target magnetite 125 - 200Mt @ 15-25% Fe (60% interest 75 - 120Mt @ 15-25% Fe)
ev $8,116,168.67
comments u308 Ni-Co Au, rights issue undersubscribed (14,674,290 @ .08 tradeable from 1st july, 10,449,783 shortfall, expected to be placed soon)

co IXR
shares 174,472,803
options 11,360,000 ($6,035,200 if exercised, nil itm)
total 185,832,803
sp .235
mc $43,670,708.70
cash $3,658,000
jorc dso nil
jorc magnetite 10.5Mt @ 50% Fe indicated
prod target 1.255Mt p/a (dso magnetite) commencing 2009, long term 3-5Mt p/a
target dso unknown
target magnetite unknown
ev $40,012,708.70
comments phase 1 processing of magnetite in china - dig and ship commencing Q3, shareholdings in uranex (spin-off from IXR) 33M shares continental nickel (canadian) 14.3M shares, Cu Au, royalty sale $6M due soon

co WPG
shares 93,553,187
options 12,737,500 ($6,189,375 if exercised, approx 4.5M itm)
total 106,290,687
sp .31
mc $32,950,112.97
cash $5,359,999
jorc dso 25.5Mt @ 62.9% Fe, 7.7% SiO2, 0.8% Al2O3, 0.03% P, 0.7% loi measured; 9.3Mt @ 61.6% Fe, 9.5% SiO2, 0.7% Al2O3, 0.05% P, 0.8% loi indicated; 2.6Mt @ 63% Fe, 7.8% SiO2, 0.5% Al2O3, 0.04% P, 0.5% loi inferred
jorc magnetite 100Mt @ 37% Fe, 37% SiO2, 0.8% Al2O3, 0.06% P, 0.6% loi measured; 60Mt @ 36% Fe, 38% SiO2, 1.0% Al2O3, 0.06% P, 0.8% loi indicated; 409Mt @ 35% Fe inferred (WPG interest only 50%, 284.5Mt)
prod target 2Mt p/a from 2010 (dso) then up to 4.5Mt p/a (dso); 6Mt p/a from 2012 (magnetite)
target dso unknown
target magnetite more than 1,000Mt
ev $27,590,113.97
comments 50/50 jv with wisco for magnetite, 1 for 12 rights issue @ .25 currently underway

some other gropers

co WRK
shares 94,938,605
options 37,835,784 ($10.6M if exercised, 28M approx itm)
total 132,774,389
sp .30
mc $39,832,316.70
cash $4,770,000
jorc dso 12.6Mt @ 57.5% Fe, 7% SiO2, 2.0% Al2O3, 0.06% P 7.9% loi inferred; 13.8Mt @ 53.9% Fe, 0.04% P inferred
jorc magnetite nil
prod target unknown
target dso 63 - 121Mt @ 56-60% Fe
target magnetite unknown
ev $35,062,316.70
comments 4M shares in PRW, AGO largest shareholder approx 19%, several tenements close (8kms) to bhp mines/railways, over 3,000 sq kms tenements, hannans fe consolidation expected to be approved july, further drilling commencing july

co TLM
shares 86,782,503
options 41,274,257 ($18.15M approx if exercised, approx 31M itm)
total 128,056,760
sp .30
mc $38,417,028
cash $6.9M approx
jorc dso 78.3Mt @ 56.0% Fe, 6.6% SiO2, 3.6% Al2O3, 0.08% P, 9.2% loi (incls 10.0Mt @ 61.3% Fe, 3.1% SiO2, 1.7% Al2O3, 0.08% P, 7.3% loi) inferred
jorc magnetite nil
prod target 2-5Mt p/a (to nearby mines, within 20kms of west angelas, area c, hope downs)
target dso unknown
target magnetite unknown
ev $31.5M approx
comments former jubilee mines management, also Ni Mn Au Cu, approx 6.2M share issue shareholder approval in july

note if anyone knows of any errors in the above, feel free to correct them

cheers

Whoohoo, HT!!!

Give me a day to add this in.

Thank you!

Now that we have this database, how do we select the candidates? Tell us your method and your criterias.

kennas,

don't know if this warrants listing as the co currently has no jorc nor target tonnage, however has potential in its tenements and is planning to begin drilling this qtr


co DMA
shares 55,631,312
options 27,067,029 ($8,600,960.15 if exercised, nil itm)
total 82,698,341
sp .125
mc $10,337,292.62
cash $2,299,000
jorc dso nil
jorc magnetite nil
prod target nil
target dso nil
target magnetite nil
ev $8,038,292.62
comments has rejected chinese rebecca's share placement/farm-in as not in s/holders best interests (approx $5M for approx 33% of co), targets defined for drilling (subject to approval) to begin this qtr, rock chip samples encouraging, currently has 15% interest in qld tiaro maryborough basin coal project

cheers

Cheers HT, will add.

Vincent, The main factors are probably the IO (and quality) to MC comparison, and infrastructure access.

I haven't updated the spreadsheet as I've been busy in the Andes the past week riding horses.

Hopefully tomorrow with updated share prices also.

kennas said:

Cheers HT, will add.

Vincent, The main factors are probably the IO (and quality) to MC comparison, and infrastructure access.

I haven't updated the spreadsheet as I've been busy in the Andes the past week riding horses.

Hopefully tomorrow with updated share prices also.

Click to expand...

Hi Kennas

Worth mentioning for clarity that BRM does not have any magnetite, it is all haematite. For comparison purposes it might be worth reducing the BRM resource to its DSO equivalent which is approx 1 billion tonnes.

co AON
shares 103,155,292
options 78,977,646 ($20,006,911.50 if exercised, approx 75.7M just itm)
total 182,132,938
sp .255
mc $46,443,899.19
cash $2,809,000
jorc dso nil
jorc magnetite nil
prod target unknown
target dso unknown
target magnetite 800Mt @ 35-39% Fe (100%-owned mt oscar, 30kms south of cape lambert - port etc); 50Mt (100%-owned commonwealth hill, WPG farm-in up to 75%, 12.5Mt for AON)
ev $43,634,899.19
comments recent chinese road show as aon seeks chinese partner (equity and/or farm-in - ann dated 09/06/09) (commitments from 11 co's to take negs on to mou status - ann dated 01/07/09), drilling starts this month (pending approval), approx 47M options expire end of this month @ .25

cheers

Mozart56 said:

Hi Kennas

Worth mentioning for clarity that BRM does not have any magnetite, it is all haematite. For comparison purposes it might be worth reducing the BRM resource to its DSO equivalent which is approx 1 billion tonnes.

Click to expand...

Total inferred and indicated is 1.4b
Total beneficiation feed 1325m (included Detrital and low grade CID) @ 43% ish
Total DSO 67.8m @ 57% ish

Table updated as best I can.

It's getting a bit long and unweildy now and time consuming to update prices, so I'll leave it to you guys to save and manipulate as you see fit from now on.

If you're an excel noob, and don't know how to use it, just post questions here.