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Iron Ore Junior Comparison

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Sean K

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I'm starting to put together an IO junior comparison for ease of analysis and to see who may be over or undervalued.

Would appreciate some help from any interested punters.

If you add in the following, I will update the spreadsheet and repost regularly.

Company
Shares on Issue
SP
MC (m)
Cash (m)
DSO (m/t)
Mag (m/t)
Prod tgt
Comments


Cheers.
 

Attachments

  • IO Junior Comparison.xls
    19.5 KB · Views: 123
Great idea. What does MC (m) stand for? Also would you consider add Debt level.
 
vincent191 said:
Great idea. What does MC (m) stand for? Also would you consider add Debt level.
Click to expand...
Market Cap, but the spead sheet automatically calculates that.

Yes, debt is important, will add it.
 
Perhaps also an EV (enterprise value) column in there K. MC - cash + debt is the formula i think...
 
prawn_86 said:
Perhaps also an EV (enterprise value) column in there K. MC - cash + debt is the formula i think...
Click to expand...
Thanks Prawn, will add it in.

It may be a bit more complicated though.

What I found was:

Enterprise value =
common equity at equity value
+ debt at market value
+ minority interest at market value, if any
- associate company at market value, if any
+ preferred equity at market value
- cash and cash-equivalents.



Can I just use your MC - cash + debt for ease of comparison?
 
kennas said:


Can I just use your MC - cash + debt for ease of comparison?
Click to expand...


Essentially that is what mine is stating. Most small co's wont have minority interest, associated co's or preferred equity.
 
kennas said:
Would appreciate some help from any interested punters.
Click to expand...

Like to help out Kennas, but I am a newbie. What identifies a junior, and is it for Aussie mines or just ASX listed and do they have to be IO producers?
Two I can think of are GRR Grange Resources, SDL Sundance but not sure they qualify for your list.

Tegards
JB
 
I'd say anyone except BHP, RIO, FMG, AQA, TTY maybe. Probably anyone who is still exploring, or only just started producing. GRR and SDL might fit the bill, but they're fairly well developed. Maybe a MC under 500m ish is a guide. Thoughts?
 
GWR - Golden West Resources

Shares - 143 million options 28 million
Sp - 50 cents
Market Cap -
Cash - $27 mill
Dso - 126 million tonnes (target 300 - 400 million additional)
Mag - 0
Debt: 0
Ev: around $40 mill

Comment: relying on oakajee to get off the ground and even then deposit still quite far away from proposed path. Does have a substantial resource eg DSO is close in size to MIS more than MMX and these cos are worth A LOT more but do have nice sugar daddies supporting them.



Atlas Iron

Shares on Issue - 300 million + around 84 million if placement fully subscribed. also around 40 mill options
SP $1.97
MC (m) before $600 mill after 756 million
Cash (m) 64 mill before + after 116.7 mill total around say $160 mill
DSO (m/t) around 90 million targeting more
Mag (m/t) 2 billion tonnes
Prod tgt 2010 - ^6mtpa 2012 - 12mtpa

Comments: Seem to have proactive management which does help. Hopefully able to use FMGs railline for some production which will make production cheaper



BC Iron Ore

Shares - 60.3M Options 6.1M
Sp - $1.41
MC - around 80 mill
Cash - $3.9 million
DSO - 51 million tonnes
Mag - 0
Prod start up 1.5 mtpa april 2010 ramp up 3-5 mtpa using FMG port/rail

comment: Looks good, will need cash soon though.
 
Company:Emergent Resources EMG
Shares on Issue: 42mill ord 21mill options
SP: 60c
MC (m) ~ 20 million (varies daily)
Cash (m) $1.1m this quarter, $1.7m previous
DSO (m/t) in exploration
Mag (m/t) in exploration
Prod tgt. This is what I'm waiting for. Have been some estimates on anns from memory but nothing concrete.
Comments: Main project is the Beyondie Magnetite Project.
(EMG earning 80%). Got on this a few months ago due to the low MC and the length of strike.Thinking of taking some profit now though. One to keep on the watchlist.
 
Updated list with EVs:

AGO
BRM
GIR
IOH
GWR
BCI
EMG
 

Attachments

  • IO Junior Comparison.xls
    21 KB · Views: 66
Thanks so much for doing this, and I would like to highlight one of my favourites.

FRS Ferraus Iron

Shares
FPO 151.6 mill
Class B 7.5
Unlisted oppies 8.4
Total fully diluted 167.5 million shares

Current price 53c
MC = $88.77 mill

Cash $15.8 mill, no debt

DSO 166.6 mill tonne grade of 58.6% Fe. All DSO no mag.

Target some 500 million tonne of DSO

Consent to mine granted by WA Govt recently.

Options

A. fast-track 1.5 - 2 MTpy H2/2010

B. 8 - 10 MTpy 2012/13 ramping up to >20MTpy 2014/16

Situated East Pilbara 30kms from rail line at Jimblebar. Looking at conveyor system to rail line end.

That's about it. Some major chinese interest there on the share registry already.
 
Hey Kennas and others,

I have added a 'Price per m/t' section, menaing that now you can compare how much you are paying per m/t of IO for each company.

3 seperate cols, based on DSO, Mag, or total, dependng on what your looking at comparing.

EDIT - Have not added in Graces pick as she posted as i was typing
 

Attachments

  • IO%20Junior%20Comparison(1).xls
    28.5 KB · Views: 57
Thanks Prawn, I've added that to the sheet, but follows the DSO and Mag JORCs.
 
Cool table. How are you dealing with options?
 
BMY - Brumby Resources

Shares - 63mill
Options - 18.3mill @ .15c Jan 2010
Share Price .17c
MC 10.7Mill
Cash 1.45mill
DSO -
Mag -
Comments: Top20 shareholders hold 47% with Independence Group holding 11%
4 iron ore projects within excellent Pilbara coastal infastructure
Announced in April that prelimanary drilling will commence in June at their Pardoo East Iron Ore Project
 
doctorj said:
Cool table. How are you dealing with options?
Click to expand...
I was going to do fully diluted, but it didn't seem to make much difference to the overall value, and who's to say they get excised? Actually, I think I was just feeling lazy... Maybe we should include them?
 
kennas said:
I was going to do fully diluted, but it didn't seem to make much difference to the overall value, and who's to say they get excised? Actually, I think I was just feeling lazy... Maybe we should include them?
Click to expand...
It probably makes sense to include them when they're ITM. It won't make much of a difference very often, but every now and then you come across a company that has a large number of options that create a significant overhang and are therefore worth knowing about.
 
Table updated with Options added in.
Market Caps are fully diluted.

If there are any errors please let me know.
I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the data. DYOR, blah blah blah...
 

Attachments

  • IO Junior Comparison.xls
    23 KB · Views: 58
Updated with current share prices and added in BMY and POL, and some colour.

I've also highlighted what looks to be the biggest anomolies.

FRS DSO valued at 41c a ton.
BRM Magnetite valued at 4c a ton.

Stocks covered:

AGO
BRM
GIR
IOH
GWR
BCI
EMG
FRS
POL
BMY
 

Attachments

  • IO Junior Comparison.xls
    27 KB · Views: 44
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