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IOF - Investa Office Fund

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Wrong computer earlier. Attached is the six month chart with the action for the last week.



I'd like to think that there is more scope for the share price of IOF to recover from here than there is reason for it to fall. However the market is a fickle lover and can change direction on the slightest whim, leaving me out in the cold. Still a good yield play at the moment but the international scenario is looking very grim with border conflicts in the middle east, a stuffed up Europe, a stuffed up U.S.A and persistant concerns on China. As always, d.y.o.r. and good luck. (If you have access to a good chart software, it is worth looking at the M.A.C.D and R.S.I charts as well).
 
It is nice to get one right from time to time. IOF proved me right, rebounding steadily from the low of $2.82 to tap $3.04 shortly after open on friday (just below the recent new interday high of $3.05).



With a distribution announcement due on/or about 21 December 2012, I suspect the IOF has the capacity to retest the $3.05 levels (and maybe higher?) in the next two weeks or so. Naturaly I could be wrong, I often am, so I caution you to do your own research etc. Good luck
 
IOF continued to display volitility during last week. After managing to hover arround the $3.02 - $3.05 price early in the week IOF (and a few other reit's) seemed to get savaged on thursday pushing down to test $2.93. My buy order at $2.95 didn't look like getting filled during the morning. Twice the share price dropped to $2.95 on the buy side and $2.96 on the sell side but rebounded above $2.96 after some miniscule trades at $2.955. Bored, I went out to lunch.

When I returned the share price was still buy $2.95 - sell $2.96 but the price had dropped to $2.93 during lunch and my order was filled . There is a theory that some of the funds are waiting until lunch time to run a shorting exercise on the chance that they may trigger the stop losses of other brokers who are on their lunch break. The stop loss triggered sells then push the price down further, at which point the shorters close out their trades. Clever buggers. Sometimes having a low ball offer sitting in the queue can be well rewarded. .



In my humble opinion, the price rally up to $3.00 on Friday, before sliding back to $2.96 in the friday afternoon sell off, bodes well for next week when the distribution notice is due. It will be interesting to see whether IOF can rally above $3.05 or has reached its' peak. As always do your own research and good luck.
 
The chart says it all. Another interesting week for IOF, bouncing around all week between $2.95 (with dips to $2.94) and $3.04 with (spikes to $3.05). I threw the parcel I picked up at $2.95 into the sell queue at $3.04 but the buying early in the week faded out at $3.03. When the price dipped again on Tuesday I topped up with another parcel at $2.96 (could have waited for $2.94).

The Thursday open looked like being low (arround $2.83) and I threw in another bid at $2.87 however shortly before open a bidder popped up in the queue for 2,100,000 at $2.99 ensuring the open was high. I let the shares bought at $2.96 go at $3.04 electing to keep the ones bought at $2.95 for a combo div and capital gain. They were in the money for a few seconds on friday as very small volumes held the share price up to $3.00+ but the sellers soon pushed IOF back to the close of $2.94.



I'm fairly confident IOF will rally again in the days/weeks ahead. The fiscal cliff continues to provide uncertainty in the market and investors don't know whether to seek security in yield or opt for growth opportunities in resources. However I also still have the bid in the queue at $2.87 in case it drops further. I guess the volitility makes for opportunites. As always do your own research and good luck.
 

I have been watching this for an entry. It looks a bit toppy to me now though.

The weekly over the last year illustrates this.

I would not be surprised to see it retreat to support at $2.60



gg
 

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Garpal Gumnut said:
I have been watching this for an entry. It looks a bit toppy to me now though.

The weekly over the last year illustrates this.

I would not be surprised to see it retreat to support at $2.60



gg
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In my humble opinion, IOF is highly unlikely to retrace to a level of 12 months ago, unless there was a sunami or nuclear disaster. IMO the relative security and yield offered to investors on the investment at the present levels, would make it highly unlikely for IOF to retrace below the recent support levels of $2.87 and $2.82.

The relative strength chart for IOF for the last 12 months, shows that IOF was significantly oversold when it dropped to $2.81 in mid November 2012 and is dipping into the oversold area currently when it tests $2.94.



The fundamentals for IOF at $2.94 are:



If anything, with the prevailing issues in Europe and the "Fiscal Cliff" negotiations in the U.S being at an impasse, I would not be surprised to see IOF retest $3.02+ in the next 2-3 weeks. If it drops to the $2.81 - $2.87 area I will take advantage of the opportunity to accumulate more. As always, do your own research and good luck.
 

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IOF continued to provide opportunities for entries at the $2.95 area and exits above $3.00 through xmas/new year and this past week. Traded out of the pre div entry for a nice combo div and capital gain with the opportunity to jump in for another trade two days later.



The lows were getting a bit higher from Wednesday through Friday with a support comming at $2.97. However resistance continues at the $3.01 - $3.02 levels. Volumes have thinned right out and it is increasingly difficult to move any sizeable parcels with confidence. Might have to sit on the sidelines with this one until volumes return to normal. As always, do your own research and good luck.
 
The lows got higher and the highs got higher still. IOF followed the euphoric surge of most of the A-REIT's and banged up to test the dizzy heights of $3.14. It appears that the previous resistance level of $3.04 could now be a support level? Well at least until the market falls off the "fiscal cliff".



The drop to $2.98, to me was screaming "buy me", so I did. As always, do your own research and good luck.
 
This last two weeks the share price rallied back to $3.10 (tapped $3.11) dropped back to $2.98 then rallied again to test $3.09 on Friday before fading slightly in the closing auction to finish on $3.08. I don't know why the share price fell in week ending 1/3/13 then rallied again. However when the release came out about the property developement with Leightons with funding commited for the next couple of years, the market reacted badly and sent the share price down again to $2.98.



At least there was a reason for the sell off the second time, the market anticipated that earnings will fall or be static hence the sell off. The recovery shows IOF has plenty of supporters in respect of the portion of shares available to trade/invest in that aren't tied up by the majority share holders. Mrs nulla was quick to seize this opportunity and managed to get in last week at $3.00, out at $3.09, back in this week at $3.01 and exiting her second parcel at $3.08. I held out for $3.12 on the first parcel picked up at $2.99 (last week) missed the exit, doubled up at $2.98 start of this week and rolled out in the rally at $3.04 and $3.07. A good two weeks all round for the nulla & Mrs nulla self managed super fund. Gotta love this volitility.

As always do your own research and good luck.
 
The volumes aren't big and there seems to be a lot of small trades, however the share price has been moving in a ten cent ($0.10) spread on a regular basis and presenting trade opportunities for the quick, the bold and the insane.



The fundamentals are still good at this level too:



As always, do your own research and good luck.
 
It will be interesting to see if the $3.06 closing price of Friday 5/4/13 will be supported and whether IOF will rebound to $3.11+ or will the share price continue to fall to or the lower support levels of $3.00 - $3.02?



The fundamentals are still sound and IOF is yet to be subjected to the extent of yield compression of the rest of the market.



As always do your own research and good luck.
 
Strewth. Someone forgot to read the script. IOF was supposed to bounce along between $3.02 and $3.12 with occaisional spikes/dips outside the channel. However, having spiked to $3.12+ yesterday it was supposed to consolidate or slide back to $3.06 or lower. Who would have thought that IOF could spike up to $3.23 before closing on $3.22?



A comparison of the fundamentals at last weeks close of $3.06 ($0.08 below the NTA value) against this weeks close of $3.32 ($0.08 above the NTA) follows:



With a yield compression trending toward 5% you have to wonder whether IOF can hold these levels without some announcement in respect of growth/earnings lift or a take over. Proceed with caution and do your own research.
 

I think the yield compression is here to stay. The strength in the REITs today was remarkable. CFX, DXS, CPA, CQR, MGR, SGP - strong across the board. All close to or pushing towards new highs. Even ALZ jumped a fair bit despite rumours of a block trade by major holder.

I am guessing it's the tsunami wave from the ever falling Yen hitting our shores looking for yields. And remember that overseas investors don't get franking credit, so a 6% yield on a REIT / utilities is better than a 5.5% yield on the banks.
 

Hmmm...however the Aud$ is fairly high atm against the US$ and the high A-REIT price combined with the high Aud$ is usualy a sell trigger for overseas investors taking the combo of higher sell prices and higher conversion rates?

Personaly, I think todays 2% jump in A-REIT prices was a burst of irrational exuberance, possibly driven by the disclosure that Goldman Sachs was telling clients to sell Gold and invest in shares. The logical choice being the higher yield stocks (such as A-REIT's). If their clients managed to soak up entry at or arround 5% yields rates and the market took off compressing yield rates to less than 5%, as you point out, they are far better off than bond holders and bank deposits.

However, if the European issues and the fiscal cliff problem re-emerges, reality may mean a return to the thursday and prior levels. Currently, it is indeed a time to tread carefully. Buy and hold investors having purchased sub $3.00 could do very well to sit and hold. Traders may just have to wait for the next range/spread to develop.
 
Well the buy and hold traders that bought below $3.00 are doing very well indeed. Up by 10% and some new highs.




The tsunami wave of the Japanese investors money hitting our shores is allegedly not only driving up the share prices but also supposed to be looking to soak up good properties with solid rental returns. Over the past few weeks IOF has jumped off a low of $3.03 to hit $3.33. even at the closing price on friday the yield is still 5%. It is possible that IOF could sneak a little higher?



As always, do your own research and good luck.
 
IOF has been jumping arround like an over excited kid in a jumping castle. Ranging from low $3.20's up to $3.34 (with a spike up to $3.42) on low volumes it has been a testing choice of shares to try and trade.



While other A-REIT's finished the week in the mid range for the week following on from the volatility in the sector, IOF closed out on Friday at a high of $3.35. The share price climb is definitely rewarding long term holders. Yield is still in close enough proximity to 5% for IOF to attract the attention of yield chasers in the A-REIT sector.



The volatility continues to provide short term opportunities for the hit and run drivers amongst us. Mind you the spread is tight and the volumes are thin making trading very hairy. As always do your own research and good luck.
 

Thanks for posting this chart and the GPT one. Interesting. IOF moved up a fair amount on good volume and closed on its high on Friday. Trading on a yield of <5% without franking credits.
 
Like most of the other A-REIT's IOF fell back from the dizzy heights of April and early May. The daily trading on IOF has been eratic jumping several cents up and down on trades of relatively low volumes.



Good if you can pick up some volume low and find a buyer up high but this last 7 - 10 days has been mostly a downtrend and to risky to venture into in my humble opinion. The yield could attract investors in the lead up to the exdiv date...maybe.

As always do your own research and good luck.
 
After falling from the lofty heights of $3.40 in late May IOF tapped an interday low of $2.72 on 24 June 2013, a drop of 20%. It would have been scarey if not for the probability that it was overpriced at the higher levels. Possibly inflated by an iflux of cheap overseas funds chasing local yields. That all came undone when the Aud$ started to get sold down from US$1.06 to US$0.90. Foreign buyers at the upper price levels got hit with the double whammy of a falling share price and a falling Aud$. That 20% share price fall equated to something like a 30%+ price fall for foreign buyers, ouch.



Fortunately for IOF followers, the share price fell into trading range between $2.89 and $3.05 for the confident, brave and those suffering from sun stroke. The only problem was the daily volumes. The share price would dip on low volumes, recover then find buying and selling volume support. Often the viable trading range for those wanting to churn any reasonable trade parcels was only a few cents. I couldn't, even if I had wanted too, as (until Friday) my capital was tied up in GPT & WRT. It will be interesting to see whether IOf tries to retest the lofty heights or settles back under the recent resistance levels. As always do your own research and good luck .
 
"Slowly but surely, step by step...." I'm sure there was a horror movie a long time back with that line in it, describing the approach of some hidious monster. Don't get me wrong. IOF is certainly not a hidious monster but the share price certainly seems to struggle to make any sustainable advances.



While the price has lifted from the $3.00 to $3.10 range and is now testing the $3.11 - $3.18 range the trades are generally low and IOF seems to be able to swing either way, lifting or dropping a few cents on barely any shares being turned over. Daily volumes are fair but the trade parcels make me wonder how these "traders" are making anything out of it. IOF will go ex-div in December and there may be some interest from the yield chasers in the lead up, maybe? Then again the Aud$ is likely to take another fall on the back of any rumurs regarding the slowing of quantative easing and this will drag our A-REITs down again. Mind You if IOF goes under $3.00, in my opininion, it becomes a screaming buy. As always do your own research and good luck .
 
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