the post i answered had a question that started with why not how
i stuck in the word "how"
i think that's pretty clear
( per the email request )
It has been established previously in this forum that editing and altering another member's post is unacceptable. If you have a point to make, take the time to express it in a separate post, not by presuming to alter, much less "correct" (as per your response to my Private Message to you), what someone else wrote or how that was expressed.
most traders simply dont have enough knowledge and wont have enough money to get themselves through the journey or enough character to get to the level of consistancy.......
most traders simply dont have enough knowledge and wont have enough money to get themselves through the journey or enough character to get to the level of consistancy.......
Who knows really but the probability of success as a fulltime trader long term is grim.
If the "business" alters significantly then
adaptation is required if you cannot successfully
adapt then failure is not far away.
Joules, very true but the statement from was from TH about long term carrer as a trader, ie 'looking grim'. TH is very much so beyond that particular hurdle, so yes i am looking for more explanation/clarification as to why it would be not viable in the long term or why is it looking 'grim' expecially for someone with consistent profitablility. TH over to you?
See aboveHey TH ......
You talking literally(financially) here, or referring to the physical stress/toll associated when trading with size
My point is about consistent profitability.
My point is about consistent profitability. Since starting what is scarily over 10 years ago I've been here,
2001-2004 idiot punta
2005-2006 Stock/CFD/FX trader with a "rough" discretionary system profiting from an early bull market
2006-2008 SPI scalper trading smallish lots with lots of success
2009- early 2010 Struggling SPI trader making 40% of previous years as a percentage of capital.
2010 - NOW nuts HSI trader trying to increase my size to stupid levels to milk what is a definite edge but one which will, if it goes the same as other "edges"/market conditions, I suspect disappear.
So already I've faced 4 major shifts in markets where I've had to relearn my game. Anyone of these could of taken me out. Now here is the kicker. Full time traders have one big disadvantage to part-timers. They have a continual drag on their accounts from having to live like a rock star, pay tax out of etc. Few will be able to survive a year where their account is down after living expenses and your market is forcing you to reassess your approach or face another down year.
Thats why there is no more SPI locals.
See above
View attachment 49078
Can, did you watch that little swap of drivers pos's in the DAX......shorts on
This means the probability that in a time interval , where we have approximated the as , denoting a time period of one year, the probability that is always be positive or negative is 0.64%. This is quite a small probability. In other words, it is highly unlikely that over a period of one year a trader will consistently make profits or losses. His skill – or, the lack of it – is completely negated by the arc sine law. Instead of one year, change the time interval to 5 years, i.e. choose . The probability comes out to be 0.13%, even smaller. A trader’s luck has to run out somewhere.
Assuming that the trader started out with a very modest capital (this is an assumption to make the process consistent with ) and built his fortune over time, then over a 5 year period, i.e. the probability that , that is the trader will lose his shirt, is given by
This means that there is a big possibility – nearly certain – that all profits made by the trader will be wiped out in a 5 year period.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?