International markets traders banter

sinner · 14 March 2012

skc said:
Would it be right to say that, the positions that pushed MF Global to bankruptcy have now all comeback?

Hard to answer that q if you ask me skc, I mean it was all short term Gov debt, as long as those Govs didn't default there wasn't really a risk of MF bankruptcy...what caused the bankruptcy (imho) was the behaviour of JP Morgan and regulators.

This article by London Banker says it best, I recommend both the article and the author.

http://londonbanker.blogspot.com.au/2012/01/survivor-bias-and-tbtf-tyranny.html

In regards to the securities themselves, most of the debt series they held have tightened the spread versus Germany again, but at the same time Portugal is significantly wider now than it was.

skc · 14 March 2012

sinner said:
Hard to answer that q if you ask me skc, I mean it was all short term Gov debt, as long as those Govs didn't default there wasn't really a risk of MF bankruptcy...what caused the bankruptcy (imho) was the behaviour of JP Morgan and regulators.

This article by London Banker says it best, I recommend both the article and the author.

http://londonbanker.blogspot.com.au/2012/01/survivor-bias-and-tbtf-tyranny.html

In regards to the securities themselves, most of the debt series they held have tightened the spread versus Germany again, but at the same time Portugal is significantly wider now than it was.

From what I know it was the margin call that bankrupted them, not the realised loss (of which there wasn't any like you said if they are held to maturity).

I've never heard the theory of JPM doing them in before... I guess it isn't inconceivable in these times.

Anyway, it's all water under the bridge. But I think it gives a good illustration of the asymmetric nature of leveraged risk positions.

skyQuake · 14 March 2012

Speaking of Margin Calls, has anyone seen (streamed) the movie of the same name recently? Expected it to be terrible, actually turned out to be quite enjoyable.

skc · 14 March 2012

skyQuake said:
Speaking of Margin Calls, has anyone seen (streamed) the movie of the same name recently? Expected it to be terrible, actually turned out to be quite enjoyable.

Is this movie tax deductible for the full time trader?

On second thought - Demi Moore? No thanks

Trembling Hand · 14 March 2012

Who through the spanner in? :grenade:

sinner · 14 March 2012

skyQuake said:
Speaking of Margin Calls, has anyone seen (streamed) the movie of the same name recently? Expected it to be terrible, actually turned out to be quite enjoyable.

I watched it. Thought it was O.K, especially for the directors first ever film. No trouble recommending it to watch.

Have you seen Rollover?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083006/

Trembling Hand · 14 March 2012

just to add to my highly informative post above. China chart,

barney · 14 March 2012

I was going to say off topic, but I figure the topic here is "any thing goes"

AUD/USD just been hammered in the short term ....... Looks way overdone to me considering the rest of the market ...

I can't scalp to save my life, but it looks like an opportunity to scale some position/s to the "Long" side to me ............... Under 1.04800 I would re-assess that view

sinner · 14 March 2012

barney said:
I was going to say off topic, but I figure the topic here is "any thing goes"

AUD/USD just been hammered in the short term ....... Looks way overdone to me considering the rest of the market ...

I can't scalp to save my life, but it looks like an opportunity to scale some position/s to the "Long" side to me ............... Under 1.04800 I would re-assess that view

Hmmm I dunno, I watch the SWFX market sentiment daily and 'liquidity providers' been net long (AUD 70% vs short 30% approx avg) for months now. Right when I look, liquidity providers have
reduced AUD longs down to 50.13% i.e. barely net long!

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/sentiment/

That is a large reduction for such a short duration, AUD position longs beware. Who knows, maybe the banks will increase to a larger net long again very quickly, but I would only be game to enter long position trades on a trendy breakout (which is quite a ways away yet).

EDIT: Whoops thats what you get for posting without looking at the chart, we are already down 1.047ish.

sinner · 14 March 2012

Psychology is a funny thing on the intraday, I find it very difficult to run an algo like I do on the daily for various models. Following hard rules on the very short term moves simply kills my account!

Tonight on the EURUSD, 3 losers (small position size) and a winner (big position size). But the losers all came in a row, so when I finally got the move I wanted and sized for, was more concerned with getting back to even for the day than seeing where she would go. In the end it turned out ok for the night, but that concern got me out of the winner >10 pips earlier than otherwise.

The difference between an 'ok' night and a 'WooHoo Wednesday' night...

barney · 15 March 2012

barney said:
Under 1.04800 I would re-assess that view

Note to self ...... Always go with Plan B

sinner said:
Hmmm I dunno, I watch the SWFX market sentiment daily and 'liquidity providers' been net long (AUD 70% vs short 30% approx avg) for months now. Right when I look, liquidity providers have
reduced AUD longs down to 50.13% i.e. barely net long!

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/sentiment/

.

Thanks for the link Sinner.

The GBP/JPY is interesting ..... The Liquidity Consumers are overweight to the sell side but the Pair keep rising. Is that just the Punters hedging their positions?? (Prelude to a top??).......

Do you tend to follow the lead of the Liquidity Providers, or just look for imbalance in general?

Trembling Hand · 15 March 2012

sinner said:
Psychology is a funny thing on the intraday.............

Tonight on the EURUSD, 3 losers (small position size) and a winner (big position size).

In the end it turned out ok for the night, but that concern got me out of the winner >10 pips earlier than otherwise.

The 'trick' is to trade more. 4 trades in a day anything can happen. 100 trades in a day ya gotta be ahead .

(assuming of course you find a system that can take that many trades profitably)

MRC & Co · 15 March 2012

See bonds last night, holy sh*t!!!

MRC & Co · 15 March 2012

skyQuake said:
Speaking of Margin Calls, has anyone seen (streamed) the movie of the same name recently? Expected it to be terrible, actually turned out to be quite enjoyable.

Def want to watch that one.

sinner · 15 March 2012

barney said:
Thanks for the link Sinner.

The GBP/JPY is interesting ..... The Liquidity Consumers are overweight to the sell side but the Pair keep rising. Is that just the Punters hedging their positions?? (Prelude to a top??).......

No that sounds about right, what it means is retail is stubbornly short while the instrument trends up.

Do you tend to follow the lead of the Liquidity Providers, or just look for imbalance in general?

I don't follow their lead but I don't like being on the opposite side of a trade to them if my 'view' is expressed by the majority of retail and will generally size lower if so. I find it useful only for position/swing trades, I don't use it intraday. For example, I won't try and pick a bottom on a pair daily chart if that's what retail is trying to do.

MRC & Co · 15 March 2012

Gringotts Bank said:
Sam, TT = Turbo Trader?

I'm a member of TT, but haven't seen anything about algos?

TT = Trading Technologies (I believe this is what Sam is talking about).

CQG also has a way of 'coding' which sounds similar to what TT is bringing out I believe.

Trembling Hand · 15 March 2012

MRC & Co said:
See bonds last night, holy sh*t!!!

Yeah two nasty days.

Will be interested to see where Asia goes today. We have had all sort of funky stuff going on. HSI, China etc tanked yesterday. AUD etc going south YM, Nas, Dax going up.

What happened to the good old day when everything went up & down together. :

blue0810 · 15 March 2012

MRC & Co said:
See bonds last night, holy sh*t!!!

i checked this morning US:BND

sinner · 15 March 2012

MRC & Co said:
See bonds last night, holy sh*t!!!

I been waiting for the 2Y:10Y pair to move in line with the equity upmove/TED spread compression (or those two move back to meet the 2:10) for some time now! My perception was actually that bonds were signalling skepticism of the 2012 up-move.

We haven't been here in the 2Y:10Y (front month rolling futs) since the start of Dec '11 or Oct '11 in the cash.

ThingyMajiggy · 15 March 2012

MRC & Co said:
TT = Trading Technologies (I believe this is what Sam is talking about).

CQG also has a way of 'coding' which sounds similar to what TT is bringing out I believe.

Yep, Trading Technologies it is. TH posted a link earlier.

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