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There's only one problem with the train of thought in this thread ..... it's focus is on inflation , which developes in it's own way , usually edged on by market forces and manufacturing/processing pass ons etc.Being the uncontrolable beast that it is , perhaps first before we hunt it down , we should ascertain its species , size and power .The first test shows that it is not the vanilla inflation we are so mind numbingly told of by every would be economist and market reader/analyst , it is in fact stagflation ...... a completely different animal than the one the smart money is hunting !Whilst our dirt sales are going to hold the fort for a few more years , we will see higher prices evolve as demand soars higher throughtout the boom .I heard many an analyst quote a 20 year boom guaranteed on the back of China , but I beg to differ , as China pushes it's way through to a net exporter , with a keen eye on India , we too will see our dirt sales take on a second innings , as China and India compete for further ore sales ,The main winner would have to be coal by then , as costs will still be relatively cheaper for production methods used at present and don't look much like changing in the two above mentioned economies .The key factor for any disruption would clearly be Taiwan , if China were to retake their province by force , the shock waves would be felt by every economy on the planet .Now to add flavour to a current dilema on oil , the gurus have set an inflation adjusted prices per barrel at $101 , dating back to 1971 , but true figures predating that little blip , have it at $116.85 ........Now with CPI knocking the tiles of the roof , perhaps the focus should be defered to stagflationary pressures , which can lead on to either hyper-inflation , which smells close or puncture the waterbed and leak deflation everywhere ....... with the exporting help of Japan of course , it's not just cars they send off shore . An economic clash with China would force that issue further and make it a mandatory obligation for Japanese politicians to share the pain around globally , all with the colonizing help of the Yen .
There's only one problem with the train of thought in this thread ..... it's focus is on inflation , which developes in it's own way , usually edged on by market forces and manufacturing/processing pass ons etc.
Being the uncontrolable beast that it is , perhaps first before we hunt it down , we should ascertain its species , size and power .
The first test shows that it is not the vanilla inflation we are so mind numbingly told of by every would be economist and market reader/analyst , it is in fact stagflation ...... a completely different animal than the one the smart money is hunting !
Whilst our dirt sales are going to hold the fort for a few more years , we will see higher prices evolve as demand soars higher throughtout the boom .
I heard many an analyst quote a 20 year boom guaranteed on the back of China , but I beg to differ , as China pushes it's way through to a net exporter , with a keen eye on India , we too will see our dirt sales take on a second innings , as China and India compete for further ore sales ,
The main winner would have to be coal by then , as costs will still be relatively cheaper for production methods used at present and don't look much like changing in the two above mentioned economies .
The key factor for any disruption would clearly be Taiwan , if China were to retake their province by force , the shock waves would be felt by every economy on the planet .Now to add flavour to a current dilema on oil , the gurus have set an inflation adjusted prices per barrel at $101 , dating back to 1971 , but true figures predating that little blip , have it at $116.85 ........
Now with CPI knocking the tiles of the roof , perhaps the focus should be defered to stagflationary pressures , which can lead on to either hyper-inflation , which smells close or puncture the waterbed and leak deflation everywhere ....... with the exporting help of Japan of course , it's not just cars they send off shore . An economic clash with China would force that issue further and make it a mandatory obligation for Japanese politicians to share the pain around globally , all with the colonizing help of the Yen .
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