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And the fed pauses!

Promises plenty more hikes to come though, at least two more by year's end, fixed income pumping in response, "super hawkish pause".

5.6% now being priced as the terminal rate, 2 year is currently at 4.76 after bumping 12 points on the news. BOIL the only play still in the green on the day, NRGU pummeled, even the previously thought resilient (A.I blah blah) tech plays are well into the red.

Cash still the overwhelming best place to be. Famous last words but it seems very hard to see how SOXL/FNGU/TQQQ are going to keep rising from here. The fed's all but promised to crush them at this point. They've basically gone on record as saying that they are going to keep pumping rates until they bite, i.e the more rises the economy can take the more they will give them. In other words, they are not going to give in on this. If the economy can end up taking 200 points (or whatever) more than they expected then 200 more they will give it.

Fed dot point very concentrated for the short term but an absolute shitshow for even 2024 let alone 2025. A tacit admission that uncertainty is huge/even the fed really has no idea what's coming down the pipeline.

I've been saying for quite some time that SNAFU is going to be the new normal for quite some time and markets continue to prove me righter by the day.

<blockquote data-quote="over9k" data-source="post: 1231723" data-attributes="member: 82196">And the fed pauses! Promises plenty more hikes to come though, at least two more by year&#039;s end, fixed income pumping in response, &quot;super hawkish pause&quot;. 5.6% now being priced as the terminal rate, 2 year is currently at 4.76 after bumping 12 points on the news. BOIL the only play still in the green on the day, NRGU pummeled, even the previously thought resilient (A.I blah blah) tech plays are well into the red. Cash still the overwhelming best place to be. Famous last words but it seems very hard to see how SOXL/FNGU/TQQQ are going to keep rising from here. The fed&#039;s all but promised to crush them at this point. They&#039;ve basically gone on record as saying that they are going to keep pumping rates until they bite, i.e the more rises the economy can take the more they will give them. In other words, they are not going to give in on this. If the economy can end up taking 200 points (or whatever) more than they expected then 200 more they will give it. Fed dot point very concentrated for the short term but an absolute shitshow for even 2024 let alone 2025. A tacit admission that uncertainty is huge/even the fed really has no idea what&#039;s coming down the pipeline. I&#039;ve been saying for quite some time that SNAFU is going to be the new normal for quite some time and markets continue to prove me righter by the day.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="over9k, post: 1231723, member: 82196"] And the fed pauses! Promises plenty more hikes to come though, at least two more by year's end, fixed income pumping in response, "super hawkish pause". 5.6% now being priced as the terminal rate, 2 year is currently at 4.76 after bumping 12 points on the news. BOIL the only play still in the green on the day, NRGU pummeled, even the previously thought resilient (A.I blah blah) tech plays are well into the red. Cash still the overwhelming best place to be. Famous last words but it seems very hard to see how SOXL/FNGU/TQQQ are going to keep rising from here. The fed's all but promised to crush them at this point. They've basically gone on record as saying that they are going to keep pumping rates until they bite, i.e the more rises the economy can take the more they will give them. In other words, they are [I]not [/I]going to give in on this. If the economy can end up taking 200 points (or whatever) more than they expected then 200 more they will give it. Fed dot point very concentrated for the short term but an absolute shitshow for even 2024 let alone 2025. A tacit admission that uncertainty is huge/even the fed really has no idea what's coming down the pipeline. I've been saying for quite some time that SNAFU is going to be the new normal [I]for[/I] quite some time and markets continue to prove me righter by the day. [/QUOTE]

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