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InvestoBoy,
Lets agree to disagree. Attack the opinion not the indevidual.
I stand by my post. IR needs to be higher to get Inflation down. Shops are still busy, unemployment is low, Christmas spending I believe will not be a 'horrifically bad retail results', maybe 'soft'. AUD is sinking, Aussies will likely travel less (abroad), and thus 'stay at home and spend'. Yes savings rates are down, I think 12% down to about 5%. Many still on fixed rates and IR's not affecting them.
Recession may be coming, but currently I don't really think thehigher IR's are going to have very much impact on holding back inflation.

Your May to August numbers suggest in 4 months inflation has increased by about 1.4%, which YOY would be 4.2%.
I don't believe the CPI figures in your spreadsheet are representative.

TLDR: Inflation at 0% by August 2023 will only happen if there is a catastrophic decline in the Australian/Global economy, evan Global War/Pandemic, or IR at 7% and mortgages at 10%.

Please disagree politely. It's disappointing that so very many discussions on ASF just end up arguments and slagging.
In my many years on ASF I have never 'Ignore'd' anyone.

Gunnerguy

<blockquote data-quote="Gunnerguy" data-source="post: 1195169" data-attributes="member: 36813">InvestoBoy,Lets agree to disagree. Attack the opinion not the indevidual.I stand by my post. IR needs to be higher to get Inflation down. Shops are still busy, unemployment is low, Christmas spending I believe will not be a &#039;horrifically bad retail results&#039;, maybe &#039;soft&#039;. AUD is sinking, Aussies will likely travel less (abroad), and thus &#039;stay at home and spend&#039;. Yes savings rates are down, I think 12% down to about 5%. Many still on fixed rates and IR&#039;s not affecting them.Recession may be coming, but currently I don&#039;t really think thehigher IR&#039;s are going to have very much impact on holding back inflation.Your May to August numbers suggest in 4 months inflation has increased by about 1.4%, which YOY would be 4.2%.I don&#039;t believe the CPI figures in your spreadsheet are representative.TLDR: Inflation at 0% by August 2023 will only happen if there is a catastrophic decline in the Australian/Global economy, evan Global&nbsp; War/Pandemic, or IR at 7% and mortgages at 10%.Please disagree politely. It&#039;s disappointing that so very many discussions on ASF just end up arguments and slagging.In my many years on ASF I have never &#039;Ignore&#039;d&#039; anyone.Gunnerguy</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Gunnerguy, post: 1195169, member: 36813"] InvestoBoy, Lets agree to disagree. Attack the opinion not the indevidual. I stand by my post. IR needs to be higher to get Inflation down. Shops are still busy, unemployment is low, Christmas spending I believe will not be a 'horrifically bad retail results', maybe 'soft'. AUD is sinking, Aussies will likely travel less (abroad), and thus 'stay at home and spend'. Yes savings rates are down, I think 12% down to about 5%. Many still on fixed rates and IR's not affecting them. Recession may be coming, but currently I don't really think thehigher IR's are going to have very much impact on holding back inflation. Your May to August numbers suggest in 4 months inflation has increased by about 1.4%, which YOY would be 4.2%. I don't believe the CPI figures in your spreadsheet are representative. TLDR: Inflation at 0% by August 2023 will only happen if there is a catastrophic decline in the Australian/Global economy, evan Global War/Pandemic, or IR at 7% and mortgages at 10%. Please disagree politely. It's disappointing that so very many discussions on ASF just end up arguments and slagging. In my many years on ASF I have never 'Ignore'd' anyone. Gunnerguy [/QUOTE]

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