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Actually the inverted 2/10 yield curve DOES NOT 'guarantee' a recession. Having listened to the author (A university researcher/Ph.D student ? of some US University in maybe 1980's or 1990's) of the paper her wrote that assessed this phenomenon in a podcast he stated that 'it all depends on how long the inversion lasts for'. I can't remember for the life of me what timeframe it needs to be to 'statistically confirm the future occurrance of a recession' however just that it is inverted does not confirm a recession.
This may be pedantic but when people quote this fact inversion=recession they misrepresent the researchers work, and he states in the podcast I heard that it annoys him and it all depends on the length of the inversion, 1month, 2 months, 3 months etc.
I think the podcast was either NPR's 'Planet Money' or NPR's 'Indicator podcast in about ....... June/July this year.

Personally thinking ........ I've no idea whether the US IS in recession or will be, however I think it is likely.

Just a comment to ground ourselves in the facts as in the current market we (or some of us) are looking at each comment, tick or trend in order to try to make moeny in the market.

Stay safe out there. Patience.

Gunnerguy.
(DYOR)

<blockquote data-quote="Gunnerguy" data-source="post: 1192779" data-attributes="member: 36813">Actually the inverted 2/10 yield curve DOES NOT &#039;guarantee&#039; a recession. Having listened to the author (A university researcher/Ph.D student ? of some US University in maybe 1980&#039;s or 1990&#039;s) of the paper her wrote that assessed this phenomenon in a podcast he stated that &#039;it all depends on how long the inversion lasts for&#039;. I can&#039;t remember for the life of me what timeframe it needs to be to &#039;statistically confirm the future occurrance of a recession&#039; however just that it is inverted does not confirm a recession.This may be pedantic but when people quote this fact inversion=recession they misrepresent the researchers work, and he states in the podcast I heard that it annoys him and it all depends on the length of the inversion, 1month, 2 months, 3 months etc.I think the podcast was either NPR&#039;s&nbsp; &#039;Planet Money&#039; or NPR&#039;s &#039;Indicator podcast in about ....... June/July this year.Personally thinking ........ I&#039;ve no idea whether the US IS in recession or will be, however I think it is likely.Just a comment to ground ourselves in the facts as in the current market we (or some of us) are looking at each comment, tick or trend in order to try to make moeny in the market.Stay safe out there. Patience.Gunnerguy.(DYOR)</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Gunnerguy, post: 1192779, member: 36813"] Actually the inverted 2/10 yield curve DOES NOT 'guarantee' a recession. Having listened to the author (A university researcher/Ph.D student ? of some US University in maybe 1980's or 1990's) of the paper her wrote that assessed this phenomenon in a podcast he stated that 'it all depends on how long the inversion lasts for'. I can't remember for the life of me what timeframe it needs to be to 'statistically confirm the future occurrance of a recession' however just that it is inverted does not confirm a recession. This may be pedantic but when people quote this fact inversion=recession they misrepresent the researchers work, and he states in the podcast I heard that it annoys him and it all depends on the length of the inversion, 1month, 2 months, 3 months etc. I think the podcast was either NPR's 'Planet Money' or NPR's 'Indicator podcast in about ....... June/July this year. Personally thinking ........ I've no idea whether the US IS in recession or will be, however I think it is likely. Just a comment to ground ourselves in the facts as in the current market we (or some of us) are looking at each comment, tick or trend in order to try to make moeny in the market. Stay safe out there. Patience. Gunnerguy. (DYOR) [/QUOTE]

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