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The basic situation at present to the best of my knowledge:

Non-OPEC countries are essentially flat out with production, there's nothing to spare at all. With price being what it is, anyone in a free market economy able to produce oil is doing so, there's simply no reason not to unless something breaks etc.

For the OPEC members that's where it gets interesting. The "normal" problem within OPEC is individual member countries exceeding quotas for reasons of financial self-interest whereas in 2022 the opposite problem has emerged, quite a few are really struggling to even meet the quota.

Bearing in mind that the quotas are intended to hold production down not up, that's a bit like saying you've got no chance of being fined for speeding since your car can't actually get to 100 km/h anyway.

From OPEC published data, April 2022 quota versus production. Figures are million barrels per day.

OPEC members subject to quotas:

Algeria = 1.00 (actual) | 1.002 (quota)

Angola = 0.27 | 0.309

Equatorial Guinea = 0.09 | 0.121

Gabon = 0.18 | 0.177

Iraq = 4.42 | 4.414

Kuwait = 2.64 | 2.666

Nigeria = 1.40 | 1.735

Saudi Arabia = 10.40 | 10.436

UAE = 3.01 | 3.006

OPEC members exempt from quotas:

Iran = 2.58

Libya = 0.90

Venezuela = 0.75

Non-OPEC but participate in the quota system voluntarily:

Azerbaijan = 0.58 | 0.682

Bahrain = 0.20 | 0.195

Brunei = 0.08 | 0.097

Kazakhstan = 1.33 | 1.621

Malaysia = 0.40 | 0.565

Oman = 0.84 | 0.837

Russia = 9.14 | 10.436

Sudan = 0.06 | 0.072

South Sudan = 0.15 | 0.123

Total all OPEC+ with quotas excluding exempt members = 37.35 (actual) | 39.944 (quota)

So there's a definite shortfall in meeting quota which from an historic perspective is abnormal, the traditional problem being the opposite. Of the lot there's only one that's significantly exceeding quota in % terms whilst a number are well short.

In Russia's case the reason is obvious but for most the general consensus is the reasons are a lack of functional production capacity. That is, either everything they have is running or whatever isn't running has some sort of physical problem. There's nothing to spare that's actually able to pump oil right now.

Saudi Arabia claims its present production capacity is 12 million barrels per day meanwhile a look at historic data suggests Iran's is likely about 3.9 million barrels per day. For the rest, it seems that there's probably a bit of spare capacity in some of them but overall it's not much, they're struggling to get production up, they're not struggling to keep it down.

Then we have the US releasing 1 million barrels per day of physical oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That by its very nature is a short term unsustainable oil "supply" that can't continue indefinitely, it's simply emptying out a storage facility.

Putting that together, there is uncertainty due to the nature of data and politicisation of some of it but my overall thought is that the only way to get global production up is to lift all restrictions on Iran. Beyond that, the Saudi's really only seem to have enough spare to offset the inevitable ending of SPR withdrawals but that's it, and there's not much spare anywhere else.

Physical oil supply is a real constraint on economic activity going forward is my thinking. Price may well come down, potentially a lot, but only so long as demand doesn't breach capacity which appears to be barely higher than present production.

There's a lot of uncertainty there, nobody on earth likely has every detail with confidence that it's correct, but that's my interpretation of the situation with oil.

The real energy problem however is LNG. Natural gas "as gas" is OK in some countries not exposed to global markets but for LNG being shipped, the market is beyond stuffed at the moment. It's actually cheaper to fire a boiler with jet fuel than it is to fire it with LNG right now and that says it all really. It's extremely expensive, if you can even get it.