As @Smurf1976 has been explaining for a while, but there is a way out.
One part i do not understand is the statement that if recession hits us,the AUD would go to the moon?
yes, my feeling too: I would expect the AUD not to go to the moon but go down down downView attachment 142452
Aussie$ v UK£ Live chart: https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=FX^GBPAUD&t=37&p=5&dm=0&vol=0&width=300&height=208&min_pre=0&min_after=0
It does look as if the Aussie is heading to AUD1.5 to GBP1.
You only have to look at what has happened in every other recession where the AUD, being a proxy for commodities, has always gone down steeply.yes, my feeling too: I would expect the AUD not to go to the moon but go down down down
Yep I've seen a couple of headlines showing this, particularly from the saudi's.Reports are suggesting that certain OPEC+ members are prepared to increase production should output from Russia fall significantly.
Nor is it rocket surgery...?It is not brain science !
The chart shows the opposite with the Aussie going up and up. It's the GBP going down. The European countries are stuffed as far as oil, gas, pasta, beef and wheat are concerned. The USA and Australia come out of this rather well except for food prices. Diesel in the UK costs A$3.20 a litre. UK inflation is 9%, USA 8.5%, Australia 6%, Russia 17.5%, Turkey 68%, New Zealand 6.9%, Germany 7.9%, China 8%, France 5.8%, Spain 8.7%, Italy 6.9%, Poland 13.9%, Switzerland 2.9%, Canada 6.9%, Iran 39.3%, Israel 4%, Japan 2.5%.yes, my feeling too: I would expect the AUD not to go to the moon but go down down down
Indeed, Europe is screwed via self mutilationThe chart shows the opposite with the Aussie going up and up. It's the GBP going down. The European countries are stuffed as far as oil, gas, pasta, beef and wheat are concerned. The USA and Australia come out of this rather well except for food prices. Diesel in the UK costs A$3.20 a litre. UK inflation is 9%, USA 8.5%, Australia 6%, Russia 17.5%, Turkey 68%, New Zealand 6.9%, Germany 7.9%, China 8%, France 5.8%, Spain 8.7%, Italy 6.9%, Poland 13.9%, Switzerland 2.9%, Canada 6.9%, Iran 39.3%, Israel 4%, Japan 2.5%.
View attachment 142473
Australia still has exports as long as the current regime doesn't irritate our trading partners ( not just China ) we should do comparatively OKyes, my feeling too: I would expect the AUD not to go to the moon but go down down down
it's easy to blame those 'oil-rich' nations but there is also an agenda to reduce funding for oil exploration and development ( and a separate agenda to destabilize many of those same nations )OPEC's real test...
It tends to be made of relatively poor nations who don't have much except for oil. It'd be real charitable of these poor nations to sit on their hands and not pump additional oil to make up the shortfall whilst POO is at all time highs...
We shall see
it's easy to blame those 'oil-rich' nations but there is also an agenda to reduce funding for oil exploration and development ( and a separate agenda to destabilize many of those same nations )
those 'poor-nations ' might have long memories and remember how opportunistic the West has been ,
it would be a shame if OPEC became stronger as a result of hostility towards them .. but not unreasonable
The AUD is the 5th most traded currency in the world according to FXSSI.The chart shows the opposite with the Aussie going up and up. It's the GBP going down. The European countries are stuffed as far as oil, gas, pasta, beef and wheat are concerned. The USA and Australia come out of this rather well except for food prices. Diesel in the UK costs A$3.20 a litre. UK inflation is 9%, USA 8.5%, Australia 6%, Russia 17.5%, Turkey 68%, New Zealand 6.9%, Germany 7.9%, China 8%, France 5.8%, Spain 8.7%, Italy 6.9%, Poland 13.9%, Switzerland 2.9%, Canada 6.9%, Iran 39.3%, Israel 4%, Japan 2.5%.
View attachment 142473
What do they mean by "policy rate hike"??The Fed believes that a $2.5T run-off will have the same effect as a 0.5% interest rate hike!!!! Seems pretty useless....
Substitutability between Balance Sheet Reductions and Policy Rate Hikes: Some Illustrations and a Discussion
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.www.federalreserve.gov
yepWhat do they mean by "policy rate hike"??
Is that a weird name for interest rates?
Last runoff in I think 2018 resulted in a pretty decent drop just for those wondering.
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