Inflation

JohnDe said:

Soon the cork will be released, ships will be rolling in and unloading, manufacturing will be at full production. There could be an oversupply problem and dampened demand due to low wages.

Click to expand...

that assumes there will be suitable staff to unload and some to deliver , it will NOT be as simple as it looks

i have already heard of two companies poaching truck drivers

divs4ever said:

that assumes there will be suitable staff to unload and some to deliver , it will NOT be as simple as it looks

i have already heard of two companies poaching truck drivers

Click to expand...

History, since the industrial revolution, shows that problems with production and delivery will be overcome by science and technology. That's Cathy's point, and Elon is one of the many working on solutions.

The cork will pop, it is inevitable. What is not known is whether the champagne cork will be pulled off slowly as required for all good champagnes, or if it will be party pop like a grand prix win.

JohnDe said:

History, since the industrial revolution, shows that problems with production and delivery will be overcome by science and technology. That's Cathy's point, and Elon is one of the many working on solutions.

The cork will pop, it is inevitable. What is not known is whether the champagne cork will be pulled off slowly as required for all good champagnes, or if it will be party pop like a grand prix win.

Click to expand...

i disagree with history this time

the science is becoming increasingly flawed and rushed , and the technology less based in reality

divs4ever said:

i disagree with history this time

the science is becoming increasingly flawed and rushed , and the technology less based in reality

Click to expand...

I don't know how you can claim that when for the past two years, most white collar industries have been able to maintain productivity by working from home....

waterbottle said:

I don't know how you can claim that when for the past two years, most white collar industries have been able to maintain productivity by working from home....

Click to expand...

Absolutely and university are increasing throughput, by outsourcing assignments, why do people think productivity isn't increasing?
The reality is the standard is the inverse function, but hey don't bring reality, into discussion about lifestyle choices.
How many blocks of flats built in the 1960's are falling over from structural problems?

have spent a lot of time in service industries and 'blue collar ' jobs ( you know the guys that get screamed at when office workers and technology 'experts ' stuff up ) my views will differ markedly from yours , by the sounds of it

about my only previous jobs that would have been affected by the virus debacle would have been as school cleaner and office/bank cleaner , all the rest involved real people sweating in the workplace/ work-site ( because there ain't no air-conditioning )

JohnDe said:

This adds some light on a lot of the issues floating on this thread -

Click to expand...

Interesting video. I think that there are still people out there who would claim that the current inflationary environment is transitory.

And I'd be lining up to agree with the them (depending on the day of the week).

I think the situation is alot more complicated then what is currently being discussed in public media. I say this because many who argue that inflation is truly here to stay point to statistics that compare humanity post-covid to humanity pre-COVID...

Yes. Post-COVID and pre-COVID. I use those terms as 2019-202x have been a defining moment in human history, regardless of whether or not you believe the politics /science /podcasts. The facts are that this period coincided with socio-economic upheaval that probably has not yet ended and will likely have implications for years to come. It's akin to 9/11 (the only event I could remember with a similar societal impact) and would be close to a few international wars.

How then, could you possibly compare post-COVID economics to the Pre-COVID era?

I personally don't think you can. Nor do the politicians, despite how much they are keen to use the nostalgia of yesteryear to placate people.

The reality is there has been a fundamental shift in how modern human society functions. Credit is easily accessible. Work can be done remotely. Density limits (whether legislated or not) will apply as human behaviour has changed. Healthy systems have been permanently disrupted (flu waves + covid waves). These are fundamental shifts, and so it's natural to expect a shift in the economic response.

Monetary easing to date has been extremely accommodative. The past 2 years have shown us that traditional tech, fintech, green energy and healthcare have managed to attract money. Because they have enabled the economy to continue function during a period where modern society was disrupted.

And now we face an economic test just as we (possibly) emerge out of the pandemic. The question will be whether or not we will return to regular society ala 2019 or we continue on some similar trajectory that was ignited during 2020.

Only time will tell, but if the past 2 years have taught us anything it's that there is no straight line to walking along. If anything it will turbulent and volatile. And if so, how could anyone NOT expect inflation/deflation.

divs4ever said:

have spent a lot of time in service industries and 'blue collar ' jobs ( you know the guys that get screamed at when office workers and technology 'experts ' stuff up ) my views will differ markedly from yours , by the sounds of it

Click to expand...

It isn't always the dude working at home, that is wearing the backlash for producing something substandard, there is no point employing people when you are responsible for their output but have no control over their input.
I've been in the position where you have to give autonomy to workers in critical industries, I've got to say, on most occasions the trust was misplaced.
Unfortunately Australia has become mostly a country of people having a million reasons why the couldn't do something, rather than as it was, where they just found a way to do it.
The problem in Australia is no one gives a $hit anymore, the media tell everyone they are a losers if they haven't got a property in Sydney/Melbourne, the breakfast guy on the radio on $80k a month is telling all the wage slaves how Flcked life is, everyone is told to blame someone else for their predicament. Tradies on $180k a year committing suicide I mean what are we doing to people?
From this conditioning, people are expected to be upbeat and perform well on the treadmill?
Australia has gone mad IMO.
I don't know what is happening, but the media needs to stop this down beat depressing coverage of everything, it isn't healthy.
The only highlight in my life, is when one of the flckers is sacked or has to retire, from depression from regurgitating the shyte.
My rant for the year, hopefully. If anyone disagrees feel free to engage.

divs4ever said:

have spent a lot of time in service industries and 'blue collar ' jobs ( you know the guys that get screamed at when office workers and technology 'experts ' stuff up ) my views will differ markedly from yours , by the sounds of it

about my only previous jobs that would have been affected by the virus debacle would have been as school cleaner and office/bank cleaner , all the rest involved real people sweating in the workplace/ work-site ( because there ain't no air-conditioning )

Click to expand...

I can't speak to your experience and I haven't walked in your shoes so I'm not going to pretend I know what you know.

But the reality is - covid disrupted all sectors of society. Whether that was virus related or political is arguable but that isn't the point.

It's existence meant that all industries in one way or another were affected. Some service industries managed to survive. Others such as hospitality died out or were forced to innovate and reimagine their business model. Others still such as primary industries, were still affected by employees calling in sick (whether directly involved in a work site or indirectly involved in the manufacture of upstream goods).

All industries were affected, but those who managed to innovate and work around it survived. And the reality is those who were able to commandeer technology managed survive and thrive. Those that couldn't either went bankrupt or were dependent on government stimulus.

[QUOTE="sptrawler, post: 1161608, member:]
The problem in Australia is no one gives a $hit anymore, the media tell everyone they are a losers if they haven't got a property in Sydney/Melbourne, the breakfast guy on the radio on $80k a month is telling all the wage slaves how Flcked life is, everyone is told to blame someone else for their predicament. Tradies on $180k a year committing suicide I mean what are we doing to people?
From this conditioning, people are expected to be upbeat and perform well on the treadmill?
Australia has gone mad IMO.
I don't know what is happening, but the media needs to stop this down beat depressing coverage of everything, it isn't healthy.
The only highlight in my life, is when one of the flckers is sacked or has to retire, from depression from regurgitating the shyte.
My rant for the year, hopefully. If anyone disagrees feel free to engage.
[/QUOTE]


This is a problem with all of Western society, unfortunately.

waterbottle said:

This is a problem with all of Western society, unfortunately.

Click to expand...

It is going to end western society IMO, discontent leads to people being disenfranchised and looking elsewhere for options, the problem is where the options lie everyone is fleeing in boats to come here.
The Australian media has a lot to answer for, in making a truly wonderful country where people can achieve reward for endeavour, into a country where everyone feels they are failing.
It is so sad, when I remember what I left behind as an 8year old, in the U.K.

sptrawler said:

The Australian media has a lot to answer for, in making a truly wonderful country where people can achieve reward for endeavour, into a country where everyone feels they are failing.

Click to expand...

Them and the politicians.
I first noticed political negativity from that worm Bill Shorten, however I believe it may have started before him. Perhaps Abbott? However, Shorten took it to new levels I believe.

Anyway, saw this, which answered a few questions I've had in my mind. I had noticed money leaving funds over the last few months and going to EUro's.
"Inflation Risks New Era of Currency Tensions For Central Banks"

sptrawler said:

It isn't always the dude working at home, that is wearing the backlash for producing something substandard, there is no point employing people when you are responsible for their output but have no control over their input.
I've been in the position where you have to give autonomy to workers in critical industries, I've got to say, on most occasions the trust was misplaced.
Unfortunately Australia has become mostly a country of people having a million reasons why the couldn't do something, rather than as it was, where they just found a way to do it.
The problem in Australia is no one gives a $hit anymore, the media tell everyone they are a losers if they haven't got a property in Sydney/Melbourne, the breakfast guy on the radio on $80k a month is telling all the wage slaves how Flcked life is, everyone is told to blame someone else for their predicament. Tradies on $180k a year committing suicide I mean what are we doing to people?
From this conditioning, people are expected to be upbeat and perform well on the treadmill?
Australia has gone mad IMO.
I don't know what is happening, but the media needs to stop this down beat depressing coverage of everything, it isn't healthy.
The only highlight in my life, is when one of the flckers is sacked or has to retire, from depression from regurgitating the shyte.
My rant for the year, hopefully. If anyone disagrees feel free to engage.

Click to expand...

i had been retired before the 'working from home era ' and maybe those working from home were more productive ( and accurate ) i can't imagine the distractions at home being much worse than ones i observed walking through various offices ( when i was working )

HOWEVER i see many of those 'work at home ' jobs being exported internationally or significantly automated ( or both )

now while this was an interesting adventure ( work from home ) i wonder about the need for CBD office space ( and dedicated furniture and services .. you know , the guy the changes the water cooler , cleaners , on site security etc etc etc ) in the future

now i think Australia had lost the plot ( in many places ) after 2001

BTW the media industry wasn't healthy even back in 1995 , but the momentum was for the worse , and will get worse still as they finally realize they have suicided their industry/careers .

Trump was their last big hope and they HATED that .

BTW i have a VERY dark sense of humor that has been a big help at various workplaces , it works much better than screaming , crying and ranting ( especially if you can find the right cartoon )

waterbottle said:

I can't speak to your experience and I haven't walked in your shoes so I'm not going to pretend I know what you know.

But the reality is - covid disrupted all sectors of society. Whether that was virus related or political is arguable but that isn't the point.

It's existence meant that all industries in one way or another were affected. Some service industries managed to survive. Others such as hospitality died out or were forced to innovate and reimagine their business model. Others still such as primary industries, were still affected by employees calling in sick (whether directly involved in a work site or indirectly involved in the manufacture of upstream goods).

All industries were affected, but those who managed to innovate and work around it survived. And the reality is those who were able to commandeer technology managed survive and thrive. Those that couldn't either went bankrupt or were dependent on government stimulus.

Click to expand...

my talent was for being officially forbidden to use innovative, creative fixes , now to be sure they were CRUDE , but they were quick , cheap and effective .. my best one took them 4 years to notice i had fixed a recurring problem ( happened once or twice a night before the fix ) it took other 4 hours to unfix the problem , to solve another issue ( which i had been working around with a six inch nail when needed for about 3 years )

the official option was the call the contractor who would arrive between 2 and 24 hours after the call charge a $75 call-out fee + hours on site
... and fix it to the extent the same problem might recur that shift or the next shift .. now officially they could have bought a new handle and retaining collar ( or had one made by any competent fitter ) .. but they had rules and protocols and budgets

my fix cost less than $10 including the wages for the time taken to apply the fix actually closer to $20 if you account for the roasting i got when the hasty fix was discovered

so YEP i love retirement , i can patch and fix my own stuff , my own way , and watch Australia strangle in rules and regulations , safety courses and site inductions

Absolutely @divs4ever , I have a laugh with my best mate, we did our apprenticeships together in the 70's, we would have races to overhaul CW pump motors. They were vertically mounted 1MW electric motors, it used to take us one day to strip, clean, put on new bearings and seals, check end floats, Megger and do a polarisation index reading then have it ready to go back onto the pump.
In the 80's I became a planner and had to allow three days, because the guys said that's how long it takes, then in 2000 it was sent off site for overhaul because it was half the price of using our own tradesmen. Now the place is closed.
Yes Australia is an amazing place, it's a shame everyone is so determined to stuff it up IMO

yes sadly my experiences were not unique , i also got to watch obvious talent get poached to ( mostly ) international companies and shores

waterbottle said:

I don't know how you can claim that when for the past two years, most white collar industries have been able to maintain productivity by working from home....

Click to expand...

I would actually genuinely type the above but add a ROL.
Before covid, there was a bit of talk in the corporates about BS jobs ..jobs which are in essence useless just parasite on a company/state..
Well guess what, these are the very jobs which are being WFH without any productivity fall.
In a nutshell.
And with a bit of exaggerated license..
The less affected by WFH your job is, the more BS it is....
?

waterbottle said:

I can't speak to your experience and I haven't walked in your shoes so I'm not going to pretend I know what you know.

But the reality is - covid disrupted all sectors of society. Whether that was virus related or political is arguable but that isn't the point.

It's existence meant that all industries in one way or another were affected. Some service industries managed to survive. Others such as hospitality died out or were forced to innovate and reimagine their business model. Others still such as primary industries, were still affected by employees calling in sick (whether directly involved in a work site or indirectly involved in the manufacture of upstream goods).

All industries were affected, but those who managed to innovate and work around it survived. And the reality is those who were able to commandeer technology managed survive and thrive. Those that couldn't either went bankrupt or were dependent on government stimulus.

Click to expand...

The disruption of sectors of society pales in comparison to the disruption caused by over the top reactions from the governments.
The one size fits all approach is a magnificent example of why centralised planning is an abject failure.
The closure of artificial borders when those borders had little or no bearing on the day to day lives of those living along it is a prime example.
Stupid comments like the QLD premiers statement that Queensland hospitals are for Queenslanders. Creation of artificial bubbles along border towns with ridiculous unwieldy systems in place. Checkpoints in regional areas manned by out of area police or military personel who had no idea where towns where making the queues longer. The forcing and enforcing of curfews on swathes of the population for no discernable benefit. The ridiculous notion that each state had to approve various treatments, RAT tests, and border entry protocols.
The locking up of the elderly when in many cases their only reason to even stay alive was visits from friends and relatives.
Society is angrier and less tolerant, less forgiving and less generous.
We are forever changed.
Mick

When saying"
All industries were affected, but those who managed to innovate and work around it survived. And the reality is those who were able to commandeer technology managed survive and thrive. Those that couldn't either went bankrupt or were dependent on government stimulus."
That's the official BS.
A good example i know: mine..
Startup in China, world patents just 3y ago working in AI and AR.
Government restrictions put an halt: i had 2 options.move permanently there or give up.
At 55, and able to do it, i just gave up.
Folding company: pty ltd..which is actually quite a lot of paperwork and costs.
The chinese part going on, mostly unaffected within China after mid 2020.
Australian company closing 0 income and myself retired. China one Australia 0.
And no.you can not efficiently manage a company tech in leading edge fields 100pc remotely during 2 years.
Maybe i am not tech savy enough....LOL
So that's a nice narrative to tell to shift the blame away from politicians, but not much substance...
I am sure the apples unpicked on the trees could have been picked by Zoom conferences....or the restaurants should be all booming doing takeaway..
The Australian politicians were able..and still do .. to destroy the economy for a few votes, as Australian population is generally uninformed and in the absence of border with "the rest of the world" were able to go along with the upmost BS.
Travel blocks also prevented retourning residents from spreading news and facts about what life outside the curtain was.or is...

qldfrog said:

Maybe i am not tech savy enough....LOL

Click to expand...

or too tech savvy ( i am assuming bloatware is still a popular trend )