INA - Ingenia Communities Group

[Ben10]

Has anybody been following this group? I have a small stake and am scratching my head as to what its doing..

P.s Im quit new to this lol

 

[Ben10]

Re: ILF - ING Community Living Trust

ILF present their results today to if anybody is interesed...

40c seems to have been the resistance level over the past few weeks, quite short of what i consider to be their true value, but maybe today will clear things up a bit??

Does anybody else follow ILF?

 

[Ben10]

Re: ILF - ING Community Living Trust

Broken through what i beleive to be resistance at 40cents today

Wonder if this rally will keep up. Not sure what has prompted it, there was an article in Mondays AFR noting their div. payments have been cut over 50%

 

[dmagnus]

Re: ILF - ING Community Living Trust

their announcements look the same as BNB.... debt coming up for renewal...

it is totally misleading to say the div is gonna be 6c then go no, itll be 1c maybe...

 

[Aka]

Re: ILF - ING Community Living Trust

risky but a good gumble

1. NTA is .55
2. rapid share price deterioration=oversold
3. good stock for Long term
4. its operating results can cover reppayments

happy hunting

 

[late_start]

Re: ILF - ING Community Living Trust

Does anyone know why the sp has gone up a bit for the last couple of days? No annoucement, no nothing..... dis i hold

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Re: ILF - ING Community Living Trust

Up 12%. Could go hard into next week, IMO. Resistance at 14-15c, then very little overhead.

 

[Country Lad]

The interesting thing about P&F charts is that time is irrelevant and patterns based on prices from may years ago can usually still be relied upon. The rise has followed the script so far and if the congestion around the 40 - 45 cents (from 2008) can be overcome there is a likelihood the price rise will continue.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[Country Lad]

The rise has followed the script so far and if the congestion around the 40 - 45 cents (from 2008) can be overcome there is a likelihood the price rise will continue.

Well, still going according to the script and it is at the top of the congestion, now at 45 so let's see if it goes on with it.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[Country Lad]

................... at the top of the congestion, now at 45 so let's see if it goes on with it.

Finally it may be through the congestion.

Cheers
Country Lad

 

[Miner]

Notwithstanding there was no posting on this thread for about 12 months, if any one is reading it and has interest on INA please post view in favour or against of current rights offer with a very limited opening dates.
I got rights but confused to commit or not using my super fund

 

[greggles]

Outstanding breakout today for Ingenia Communities Group after upgrading its FY18 guidance.

The INA share price smashed through resistance at $2.85 yesterday, finishing the day at its high of $2.90. It has gapped up this morning and continues to run hot, up another 5.5% to be currently trading at $3.06.

All time high for INA is $3.21 which it touched twice in October 2013 and March 2014. It is now rapidly closing in on that previous high and if the price action over the past few days is anything to go by, it could be heading into blue sky territory very soon.

 

[Porper]

Long consolidation. Ideally this breakout is here to stay. Loads of these patterns around at the moment.

Target out of the triangle around $4.25. I'll be using a trailing stop as opposed to a set target.

I Hold.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Umbrella said recently

Stocks that have hit my radar are RHT, TLX, TRU, MVP, AVH, SES, MAG, KZA, SDV and INA. INA also meets the criteria for some fundamantal investors.

Some back story information on any of the above stocks would be sincerely appreciated.

Ingenia is one of the more predictable stories, with more tail- than headwinds (along with LIC, Lifestyle Communities, another good story of the last few years). Well, it has been and should continue to perform as .

Together with LIC and recently taken over AOG and Gateway GTW, INA sits in between aged care and manufactured home sectors, in what is termed community or retirement accommodation and positioned in the sweet spot of steady demand but not too much govt intervention.

The demand is there; baby boomers retiring is an observed trend that has a while to go, with the demographic data showing extended periods of independent living post-retirement. But also a stigma, the old mentality of caravan parks, of prefab homes or manufactured housing. For many it is the only option:

The high cost of housing in Australia .. stimulated by tax incentives and fuelled by years of cheap credit ... and the swelling ranks of senior Australians heading into retirement are perennial topics at the proverbial barbecue.

Less well known is the remarkable level of relative poverty, by global standards, of those retirees. Among the OECD nations, Australia has the third-highest rate of relative income poverty for people aged over 65 at 25.7 per cent...

So this sector has grown as it is offering an affordable option. For many, without too much Super, maybe a home but possibly some lingering debt, the chance to enhance quality of life is persuasive, as is the notion of a community of like minded retirees.

"What really underpins our model is that we're not so much selling a home, we talk to our residents about 'what would your life look like if you had an extra couple of hundred thousands dollars in the bank to support the pension?'" Ingenia chief executive Simon Owen said. "There's a meaningful arbitrage between what the resident can sell their home for and what their buy-in price is in one of our communities."

.... But [these] companies face challenges too. The main one is the built communities are a land-hungry model that requires access to lower-cost real estate. Another key risk is the state of the broader residential market. A meltdown would disrupt the transition of downsizers into the prefab communities.

... landlords do not just rely on home sales. At Ingenia for example that revenue accounts for just 30 per cent of its total income. The rest is from the rent roll, an annuity style income that flows on regardless of vicissitudes in the property market. Much of that income total, in turn, is underpinned by government-funded pensions. "Our residents have very low credit risk," Mr Owen said.

https://www.afr.com/property/reside...s-a-boom-for-listed-landlords-20180731-h13dto

What are we looking at? A Property Fund, but not really.
- can do brownfield and greenfield developments
- essentially self-funding with no need for additional equity; growing annuity asset base and contracting cap rates should allow for debt-funded land acquisitions and developments.
- can also be part of consolidation in the sector (recently INA acquired Eight Gate Funds of Qld, and about $140 million in assets under management, with underlying assets including 10 holiday and lifestyle communities sites)
- But dependent on sales, and settlement of individual contracts. I suspect their projects on S Coast of NSW, and into Victoria will see a slowdown !!

In Nov 2019, Goldman Sachs lifted their price target on Ingenia Communities by 14 per cent to $5 a share, saying the company is well-placed to grow at around 10 per cent a year as it focuses on developing its strong on-balance sheet pipeline and joint venture greenfields projects.

Like all property plays, watch Debt Levels and Capitalisation Rates!
.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And, bang on cue, an Announcement the Lake Conjola Park was affected. Two dwellings burnt down - & damn lucky it stopped there, for the space between buildings is not huge. With 27 settlements due this year in this new facility, they are expecting 'material impact' (nervous purchasers?).

INA has 3 tourism parks on the South Coast, and anticipate negative impact though covered by insurance to an extent.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Update from Ingenia

Highlights
• Rental inflows from lngenia Lifestyle and Gardens residents continue unchanged - Ingenia Gardens now trading at record high occupancy
• Holiday communities in NSW and QLD to reopen in June – strong forward bookings in place
• Solid new home settlements continuing – forecasting 300 plus settlements for FY20, with further 175 contracts and deposits in place for FY21
• New acquisitions – mature NSW coastal lifestyle community with development upside and greenfield development site in key Melbourne growth corridor

And Capital raise recently from instos. still open is the SPP at $3.45. This would be attractive

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Acquisition Highlights
• Acquisition of Merry Beach Caravan Park on NSW South Coast
• Expands holidays footprint on NSW South Coast, through acquisition of an established park in a premium beachfront location with identified upside
• Adds over 540 cabins, sites, permanents and annuals – increases size of holidays business by over 10%

Trading update
Recent Government announcements enforcing travel restrictions and revising social distancing measures for NSW residents are being closely monitored by the Group. Operating protocols have been put in place within the Group’s Lifestyle and Gardens communities to ensure compliance with new requirements and to remind residents and their guests of changes as they arise.

While the holiday’s business has experienced limited cancellations to date, the Group is continuing to monitor the situation and to work with guests whose plans have been impacted by changing restrictions. The majority of guests to the Group’s holiday parks continue to be intrastate, rather than interstate, guests

 

[Dona Ferentes]

If ever there was proof we are in a property bubble, it is here: a home on an estate traded for a million dollars. ... Just the building, a manufactured home, on a postage stamp sized block that is not owned but rented from the management of the park. It's at Port Stephens, and is probably waterfront, on the bay, but that is extreme !

James Marlay (Livewire Markets): Buy on MNF. Let’s go from tech and fast growth to something which I had no idea was going to see the growth that it has. Retirement living and holiday parks, Ingenia. It seems every second park I drive past these days seems to be an Ingenia Lifestyles community. Simon, is it a buy, hold or a sell?

Simon Conn (Investors Mutual): Look, it’s a sell for us, James, just on valuation. Simon Owen has built a really good business. He’s done a great job, but like a lot of reopening trades, there’s a lot priced in with this one. When 50 per cent of your profits come from development, that’s not a recurring business of our liking. It’s a one-off profit generator. So on over 25 times, we think it’s pretty full. Whilst it’s obviously going to have a good summer with people holidaying domestically, you’ve got to look at their longer term earnings projection and the development profits that are already baked into that business.

James Marlay (Livewire Markets): Roger, the latest result from Ingenia was a 30 per cent profit increase on the prior financial result. A buy, hold or a sell for you?

Roger Montgomery (M.I M.): We own it. It’s a hold for us rather than aggressive buy, for the reason that Simon mentioned, just on pricing. Manufactured home estates have been the single top-performing property asset class overseas. In Australia, we’ve seen Stockland enter the market and Mirvac’s going to follow suit.
The market’s been underestimating how long the domestic holiday market’s going to be strong for. We think there’s a massive latent profit pool that sits inside those assets that are leveraged to that theme, which is also being underestimated. There are more caravans being sold in Australia than ever before. And nomads, not grey nomads, just nomads generally, have to take them somewhere to stay. Now our channel checks tell us that caravan parks and national park campgrounds are fully booked until the start of next year’s school year. So, you won’t be able to get a space.

The other thing that’s happening is a residential property boom which means the grey nomads are cashed up. They’ve been selling at record prices and consequently, they’ve been paying record prices for manufactured housing estate homes. In Port Stephens, a manufactured housing estate home was sold for a million dollars. So, it’s a proper sea change event, and it’s already been driving 10 per cent earnings growth. We think if you combine the fast growth with the high prices in Ingenia’s development book, and the fact that they’ve grown their pipeline by 50 per cent in the last couple of years, and they reckon they’re going to grow another 50 per cent over the next 12 months, we think the EPS growth could exceed 10 per cent in the future. So, it’s a good hold for us at the moment.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Ingenia to acquire 20 communities and development sites via $552m of identified acquisitions and undertake equity raising
An underwritten 1 for 4.24 accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer .. to raise approximately $475 million issued at $6.12 per security

Highlights
• $404 million of contracted acquisitions, including two portfolios - Seachange Group and Caravan Parks of Australia
• Identified acquisitions total ~$552 million across seven separate transactions
• 20 high quality communities and developments contracted or under exclusivity or final due diligence
• Acquisitions add 2,955 income producing sites and 856 development sites to Ingenia’s platform, expanding the portfolio by approximately 38% to approximately $1.8 billion
• Underwritten accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer to raise approximately $475 million
• Transaction delivers mid to high single digit percentage accretion in FY22 underlying EPS
• Pro forma NAV of $3.47 per security (15% increase)
• Pro forma LVR of 29.1%3 (target range of 30% – 40%)
• FY22 earnings guidance of growth in EBIT of 20% – 25% and underlying EPS growth of 3% – 6% relative to FY214
• Transforms the Group’s development pipeline and capacity for growth – targeting 1,800 - 2,000 new home settlements across next three years (FY22 – FY24) as development accelerates

 

[Country Lad]

Ingenia to acquire 20 communities and development sites via $552m of identified acquisitions and undertake equity raising

I am involved in the industry and bought these at the height of the initial covid scare when the shares fell for really no reason. The industry is becoming dominated by large corporates and until the Act governing these communities is a little more regulated as the Qld government has done with retirement villages, it is open slather for these community owners to increase rent virtually at will and most are ignoring the legislative requirements governing them. At the moment the industry has a licence to print money. I am surprised Pradella sold.