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Barney,

My about BDG.

Why would you be considering BUYING a stock that is going DOWN?

Profitable traders:
Stock price going down = SELL
Stock price going up = BUY

Unprofitable masses:
Stock price going down = BARGAIN

I tend to agree with Snake in that there is a bit too much analysis on your chart. My analysis of BDG follows;

1. Price going down.
2. Breakdown 9-10 with volume spike
3. Materials sector is weak

This signals a short sell on 10-10.

Disclaimer: I hold a paper short in BDG as above (I'm currently paper trading my shorting system until I can prove that it has a positive expectancy).

The FAR more important questions for you to answer are;
1. Can I apply a positive expectancy system to this observed pattern?
2. Can I handle the fact that there is approximately a 50 - 60% chance that I will NOT profit from this trade?
3. Can I handle the fact that in fact the vast majority of my analysis can be shown to be no better than a coin toss?

The entry is merely the starting point, the least important part of your trade.

<blockquote data-quote="MichaelD" data-source="post: 79854" data-attributes="member: 2416">Barney,My&nbsp; <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/twocents.gif"&nbsp; class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":2twocents" title="Two Cents&nbsp; &nbsp; :2twocents" data-shortname=":2twocents" /> about BDG.Why would you be considering BUYING a stock that is going DOWN?Profitable traders:Stock price going down = SELLStock price going up = BUYUnprofitable masses:Stock price going down = BARGAINI tend to agree with Snake in that there is a bit too much analysis on your chart. My analysis of BDG follows;1. Price going down.2. Breakdown 9-10 with volume spike3. Materials sector is weakThis signals a short sell on 10-10.Disclaimer: I hold a paper short in BDG as above (I&#039;m currently paper trading my shorting system until I can prove that it has a positive expectancy).The FAR more important questions for you to answer are;1. Can I apply a positive expectancy system to this observed pattern?2. Can I handle the fact that there is approximately a 50 - 60% chance that I will NOT profit from this trade?3. Can I handle the fact that in fact the vast majority of my analysis can be shown to be no better than a coin toss?The entry is merely the starting point, the least important part of your trade.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="MichaelD, post: 79854, member: 2416"] Barney, My :2twocents about BDG. Why would you be considering BUYING a stock that is going DOWN? Profitable traders: Stock price going down = SELL Stock price going up = BUY Unprofitable masses: Stock price going down = BARGAIN I tend to agree with Snake in that there is a bit too much analysis on your chart. My analysis of BDG follows; 1. Price going down. 2. Breakdown 9-10 with volume spike 3. Materials sector is weak This signals a short sell on 10-10. Disclaimer: I hold a paper short in BDG as above (I'm currently paper trading my shorting system until I can prove that it has a positive expectancy). The FAR more important questions for you to answer are; 1. Can I apply a positive expectancy system to this observed pattern? 2. Can I handle the fact that there is approximately a 50 - 60% chance that I will NOT profit from this trade? 3. Can I handle the fact that in fact the vast majority of my analysis can be shown to be no better than a coin toss? The entry is merely the starting point, the least important part of your trade. [/QUOTE]

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