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It's Snake Pliskin said:Barney may I suggest you dispense with the fundamental element of your analysis. A chart will tell you more than you could imagine. Remember though, analysis is only a small part of it.
The short term is exciting and the long term is smoke blowing in the wind - hence your use of "patience".
barney said:Cheers Snake, I understand what you're saying re the "fundamentals". They are simply represented in the price/volume action on the chart.
The short term is where I prefer to tread also, but due to so many poor past decisions,the short term "excitement" is now often replaced with "nervousness". Now I understand "scared money never wins" (one of my favorite quotes), but I am still coming to terms with my past losses ........... phsycological I know, but I still reckon physycology is at least half of what this "game" is all about ..... I'm pretty sure Mag would agree with that?? Thanks, Barney.
Bobby said:Well said Snake, those that are not in sink with the evolution of resent manifestations will lose.
It's Snake Pliskin said:No worries Barney. Forget you lost the money and start small until you are proficient.
Snake
Bobby said:Well said Snake, those that are not in sink with the evolution of resent manifestations will lose.
barney said:I agree Bob, The market is in constant change/movement, and often mutating into different formations. (Mutant! ..... sorry its late.)
PS Re the PSA chart earlier in the thread Snake; What is your take on its current position. I realise you probably don't use B/Bands etc, but is the fact that they are tightening noticeably, plus 50 day MA is well under the mid B/band any indication that the next move will be up?? The sp has been bouncing around $2.60-$2.70 on fluctuating volume for a while, so my guess is that until we see some volume action, the stock is in limbo (ranging). Cheers, Barney.
PPS Can we learn anything from the Accum Distribution chart relative to price from the last few months?
It's Snake Pliskin said:Barney,
It is doing nothing at the moment. My P/F chart is a sell at $2.58 if it breaks down that far; the bar chart confirms the uncommitted.
B bands don't use them or read them, and the averaged Accum/Distribu is unexciting, just like the share price.
Regards
Snake
barney said:I'm pleased thats how you described it ("confirms the uncommitted") cause thats kind of how it looked to me as well (confirmation is good) .... my "technical" term was "limbo"
Mata ai masho, Barney.
Barney,
It is doing nothing at the moment. My P/F chart is a sell at $2.58 if it breaks down that far; the bar chart confirms the uncommitted.
Hello barney,barney said:Cheers Snake, I understand what you're saying re the "fundamentals". They are simply represented in the price/volume action on the chart.
The short term is where I prefer to tread also, but due to so many poor past decisions,the short term "excitement" is now often replaced with "nervousness". Now I understand "scared money never wins" (one of my favorite quotes), but I am still coming to terms with my past losses ........... phsycological I know, but I still reckon physycology is at least half of what this "game" is all about ..... I'm pretty sure Mag would agree with that?? Thanks, Barney.
tech/a said:Thought this example of a chart that interests me may help.
Ive traded this was in at .037 and out yesterday at .040.
Its currently back on the watch list.
Magdoran said:Hello barney,
For a long time I’ve stated in various forums that in my view psychology is the cornerstone to successful trading, and it really does separate the pack.
So, yes, in my view Psychology rates as number 1 over analysis, system and strategy.
If you have the wrong mindset your chances of success are poor.
Many people invest the majority of their time into analysis or system building. These are key factors in the process, but far too often many neglect psychology. Some are lucky and develop a successful mindset by trial and error, but works like “Trading in the Zone” by Mark Douglas, and “The Phantom of the Pits” are the best works I’ve come across so far.
Combine this with good T/A, an effective system, and a sound strategy, then you stand some chance of succeeding…
It sounds like you would really benefit from reading these psychology books to me. It may help to address some of the psychological damage done by your recent heavy losses.
(By the way, I note some posters who dismissed psychology have never read Douglas. I’m quite happy to debate the different techniques on their merits, but I’d suggest barney that anyone who discounts these works who has never read it should be ignored – they don’t know what they’re talking about. It makes no sense to me to listen to the ignorant who haven’t even bothered to read the material before dismissing it.)
I know this is digressing from pure chart analysis methods, but in my view it is integral to effectively using analysis.
Regards
Magdoran
I reckon I'm about 2% Its interesting that even through the pages of a forum you can tell how much more "relaxed" lads like youself and Tech are in your trading approach,
This is one of the problems with fundamental analysis.Its really for the longer term and when used for short term trading the majority of the time it leaves the exponent with little skill to read the SHORT term price action.
Often when a 100% plus rise comes along its years before you see that high takn out.
tech/a said:Duc accepted.
However scoot over to the GDN thraed and you'll see what I mean.
The Fundamental skills employed GENERALLY within this forum are limited to "Valuation".The psycological skills are limited to (Generally) emotive reaction.
The resultant Trading skill is less than evident.
Hello barney,barney said:Good advice as always Mag. I haven't got onto any of the phsyc books as yet, but certainly will, as I agree that it is important. I still remember that sick feeling of staring down the barrell of a multi (actually more like Mega) thousands of $ loss on one trade, and pressing the sell button. Initially it was a relief to "get out", but the remorse sets in quickly when you realise you just wasted about 10 years of your life savings virtually overnight. Thats when you realise what the phsycology of trading pressure can do to you. I admit to stupidity for getting in the position in the first place, but it is important for new players to learn how to cope with a pressure/losing situation before actually getting into the situation in the first place (and have steps in place to minimise that loss.) Thats why education, including chart analysis is important ............. building confidence in the way we trade. On basic knowledge of trading I reckon I'm about 20% of the way there, but from a phsyc point of view (being in control of my trading strategies and sticking to them no matter what) I reckon I'm about 2%Its interesting that even through the pages of a forum you can tell how much more "relaxed" lads like youself and Tech are in your trading approach, whereas someone like me who is really not confident in my approach just yet, still has to battle with every decision ..... (but improving!!) All the best, Barney
PS Hey Snake thanks for the Japanese! Took me a while to decifer it cause I don't actually speak J. My daughter speaks a little. Its an interesting language/culture. Suki desu
tech/a said:Barney
An interesting observation. Ive been following a few stocks in the fundamental forum and constantly see from most of the contributors the whole range of emotions talked about.The roller coaster ride that occurs when your on a stock it rises 100% or more in a few days then crashes back to the initial buy area it started from.
Have a look at GDN as a good example.
This is one of the problems with fundamental analysis.Its really for the longer term and when used for short term trading the majority of the time it leaves the exponent with little skill to read the SHORT term price action.
Often when a 100% plus rise comes along its years before you see that high takn out.
With tech analysis as a tool in your trading tool box you have the ability to make a decision about NOW or about the FUTURE.
Stage one to relaxed trading.
Stage 2Trading is a business.All decisions are for the benifit of the business--there is no place for emotion.
Stage 3
Trade within your comfort zone.Manage risk FIRST then position size.
Profit comes to those who understand the value of small fish to nibble on while the big fisk get hooked a few times a year.
Just like in business youll have 30 average sales and then in will walk a Kerry Packer and buy half the store. Doesnt happen often but if you stay in business long enough it will happen.
I partly agree with this, but would like to offer a slightly different perspective – Ducati posted some comments in some other threads regarding emotions, suggesting that emotions are actually vital to making decisions, and that in dealing with the market the suggestion was to essentially filter the emotions to minimise negative ones. Sure the idea is to think more objectively and take the negative emotions out of the equation.tech/a said:Barney
An interesting observation. Ive been following a few stocks in the fundamental forum and constantly see from most of the contributors the whole range of emotions talked about.The roller coaster ride that occurs when your on a stock it rises 100% or more in a few days then crashes back to the initial buy area it started from.
Have a look at GDN as a good example.
This is one of the problems with fundamental analysis.Its really for the longer term and when used for short term trading the majority of the time it leaves the exponent with little skill to read the SHORT term price action.
Often when a 100% plus rise comes along its years before you see that high takn out.
With tech analysis as a tool in your trading tool box you have the ability to make a decision about NOW or about the FUTURE.
Stage one to relaxed trading.
Stage 2Trading is a business.All decisions are for the benifit of the business--there is no place for emotion.
Great analogy tech,tech/a said:Stage 3
Trade within your comfort zone.Manage risk FIRST then position size.
Profit comes to those who understand the value of small fish to nibble on while the big fisk get hooked a few times a year.
Just like in business youll have 30 average sales and then in will walk a Kerry Packer and buy half the store. Doesnt happen often but if you stay in business long enough it will happen.
Thanks Tech, Could I make the observation that Stage 3 above is probably the most important from a phsycological point of view. ie You can remain relaxed if your position sizes are comfortable ..... that in a nutshell is where I really went wrong ......... too much leverage on a stock that had more volatility than a "rabid dog" (just thought I'd throw in a little metaphor) ....
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