Improving Chart Analysis

Hi Barney. I really enjoy your posts and too be honest you ask allot of very good questions that allot of us newbies are probably to timid to ask, well done.

If i may add my immature and humble opinion here, i think if you look at the weekly chart you will see some stopping volume. The trend however has not broken out of its downward channel indicating to me at least, that its not finished until it does so. AWB being a big company, in a very supply / demand agri business would be set to benefit from higher wheat prices...maybe the smart money had seen this and considers it either valuable for that reason, or others.

Either way, in my opinion it would be best to be sure of the price action before entering a trade on it. Great stock to analyse though.

Cheers,

barney said:

(Cool about the gigs Snake Rehearsals are why you get in late?)

There is obviously so much stuff I don't understand about these situations. I was thinking that the reversal on wednesday followed by the gap up on thursday, and again today to a lesser degree was indicating a reasonable short term stabilisation of the big downtrend, but are you saying that because of the gaps, there will be little resistance if the sp takes another dive?? Cheers Barney

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(Yes and No, I teach until late and then there is the time difference - I'm in Japan :samurai: )

Some people believe gaps fill, so in this case without a spike it may well happen - the momentum is south remember. This is not a stock I would trade. Give me something without headlines. Something I can sneak my way into and out of

Cheers
Snake

CanOz said:

Hi Barney. I really enjoy your posts and too be honest you ask allot of very good questions that allot of us newbies are probably to timid to ask, well done.

If i may add my immature and humble opinion here, i think if you look at the weekly chart you will see some stopping volume. The trend however has not broken out of its downward channel indicating to me at least, that its not finished until it does so. AWB being a big company, in a very supply / demand agri business would be set to benefit from higher wheat prices...maybe the smart money had seen this and considers it either valuable for that reason, or others.

Either way, in my opinion it would be best to be sure of the price action before entering a trade on it. Great stock to analyse though.

Cheers,

Click to expand...

Hi Can (abbreviated your name hope you don't mind .... couldn't spell it ), Thanks about the support re the questions, and I agree AWB makes an interesting case study (both chart wise and fundamentally) I think the way it pans out could be very interesting in hindsight a few months from now ..............

Actually the answers we get from the "Lads" around here are first rate and thanks must go to them for taking the time to give us "lesser" mortals their valuable time/information ......... So well done to you guys (you know who you are) Cheers, Barney.

It's Snake Pliskin said:

(Yes and No, I teach until late and then there is the time difference - I'm in Japan :samurai: )

Some people believe gaps fill, so in this case without a spike it may well happen - the momentum is south remember. This is not a stock I would trade. Give me something without headlines. Something I can sneak my way into and out of

Cheers
Snake

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Thanks for that Snake, I guess volatility is good to a point, but it can really burn you (even if you are careful ........... I certainly know that feeling!)
Re "Sneaking in and out of a stock" .................. Can you recommend any "conservative" chart(s) to "study" that give a less volatile yet still useful example re analysis? I tend to be drawn to the "headlines" all the time, which is probably not a good thing at my level. Cheers, Barney.

Japan eh! .............. Man, and I thought you were a truck driver from Dapto Did you move there from Oz?

Arigatou./
Doumo.

tech/a said:

AWB---I smell Bottom Picking---nasty habit!

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Not if you use a surgical glove Tech

Seriously though, I reckon this stock will give valuable lessons longer term Cheers Barney

I reckon this stock will give valuable lessons longer term

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Ah the surgical glove and reckon indicator, valuable tools.

If long then a valuable lesson may well be learnt.

barney said:

Thanks for that Snake, I guess volatility is good to a point, but it can really burn you (even if you are careful ........... I certainly know that feeling!)
Re "Sneaking in and out of a stock" .................. Can you recommend any "conservative" chart(s) to "study" that give a less volatile yet still useful example re analysis? I tend to be drawn to the "headlines" all the time, which is probably not a good thing at my level. Cheers, Barney.

Japan eh! .............. Man, and I thought you were a truck driver from Dapto Did you move there from Oz?

Arigatou./
Doumo.

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Barney,

Have a look at PSA.

I have called rejections at $2.45, then $2.60 and it has broken both on increased volume.
I am not good with posting charts and the like but will try later as I have to go out today.

Snake

tech/a said:

Ah the surgical glove and reckon indicator, valuable tools.

If long then a valuable lesson may well be learnt.

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Point taken Tech, My reckon indicator is my best performed one ......... If I reckon a stock will go up I "short" it ..........and if I reckon it will go down, I go long ............... I'm going to start a new theory on technical analysis ...........might call it the Bl**dy Barney theory ............. I "Reckon" its a winner!! (which of course means its doomed to failure What do you reckon??

PS I agree AWB is not looking very handsome atm ............ still interesting to watch from a learners point of view just the same ......... Cheers Barney.

PPS Thanks Snake I'll check PSA out.

How does one post a CHART? It's easier to design a rocket!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hi Snake,

Once you are into the "reply to thread" window (where you normally type your replies), scroll further down the page until you see a button that says "manage attachments". You will also see the available attachment types that you can load at ASF.

Click on that "manage attachments" button and then click on "browse" to find the image on your PC (or wherever you have it stored).

Once you have found your file, double click on it which will put it into the text box next to the "browse" button.

Then click on "upload".

The only difficulty now is if the image size is too large - but try the above and see if that works. If not, then the image needs to be made smaller!

Hope this helps!

Margaret.

It's Snake Pliskin said:

How does one post a CHART? It's easier to design a rocket!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Hi Snake .............. Gee it would be nice if I might be able to help you for a change !! .................. Re what Sails said above .........That is exactly correct, but going back one step further before that, you have to first Save the chart/file as an "Image" file (ie a .PNG file) I use incredible charts ......... when you have the chart displayed as you want it, go to "File", then click on "Save file as Image" .......... (you can set the destination folder to wherever you like) Then you follow "Sails" advice re uploading .......... hope that helps, Barney.

PS How many "Rockets" have you designed

sails said:

Hi Snake,

Once you are into the "reply to thread" window (where you normally type your replies), scroll further down the page until you see a button that says "manage attachments". You will also see the available attachment types that you can load at ASF.

Click on that "manage attachments" button and then click on "browse" to find the image on your PC (or wherever you have it stored).

Once you have found your file, double click on it which will put it into the text box next to the "browse" button.

Then click on "upload".

The only difficulty now is if the image size is too large - but try the above and see if that works. If not, then the image needs to be made smaller!

Hope this helps!

Margaret.

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Thanks Margaret, that was very well documented and easy to follow. Barney thank you too.
Here goes:

Hi Snake, Re the PSA chart, The OHLC charts show "green" when the candles don't .... I assume this is because, even though the close was lower than the high for the day (red candle), the close of the day was still higher than the close of the previous day. Is that correct? So working on that, the fact that the sp close was lower than the open on friday is inconsequential in relation to the fact that it still closed higher than the day before on increased volume, so the overall trend is still very Bullish (yes?) It is interesting that 6 of the last 7 days have produced red candles, yet the sp has increased/trend is up. Is this why the OHLC is a more "respected/pure" form of analysis so to speak ..........
I remember Mag making a comment on a previous chart sort of indicating that was the case

I'll make a commentary here Snake re what I'm seeing ......my comments are not meant to be statements, rather questions put in statement form so that I can be judged on what I see, if that makes sense .............

Curious at to what stage we would have looked to take a long position on this stock .......... 12th and 13th September were big down days ........... SP recovered quickly over next few days, but the overall trend was still very down, so I imagine to enter here would have been seen as very risky/speculative ?? Even entering in the week leading up to the 9th October, due to the fact that the trend (even though levelling out) had still not clearly reversed would still have been "an educated guess??"

The 11th October is kind of the obvious move in price with good volume, but is this an entry point?? and the 12th october is an "inside????" day (I think) .......... so at this point we still dont have confirmation?

Not sure what to make of the next 2 days Very little price movement and lower volumes ............ The gap open on the 17th october looks like the move is proven to me .............. this is where I would see a less volatile position to open, BUT, have I missed the boat by being too conservative??

The 9th October (if I were being a bit more carefree) would have been my entry point, due to the moving averages "getting together" ................ I actually like using M/A's (3) combined with Volume to indicate good entry points.............. might seem too simple for many, but I see a lot of merit in them ...............

PS The fact that PSA is also bouncing up against the trend in Oil price has to be very positive also.

How did I do?? All comments and criticisms appreciated, Cheers, Barney.

Hi Barney,

The OHLC charts show "green" when the candles don't .... I assume this is because, even though the close was lower than the high for the day (red candle), the close of the day was still higher than the close of the previous day. Is that correct?

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They show the higher close, than the day before, as an up day where candles don't. Using candles you could see a big gap down day and then it finishes higher than the open and it is an up day - an up day but bearish in nature.

So working on that, the fact that the sp close was lower than the open on friday is inconsequential in relation to the fact that it still closed higher than the day before on increased volume, so the overall trend is still very Bullish (yes?) It is interesting that 6 of the last 7 days have produced red candles, yet the sp has increased/trend is up.

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I wouldn't say it is very bullish.

Is this why the OHLC is a more "respected/pure" form of analysis so to speak ..........

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I find it easier to read, but others like candles.

Curious at to what stage we would have looked to take a long position on this stock

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I am waiting to see what happens with the test of $2.85ish.

.......... 12th and 13th September were big down days ........... SP recovered quickly over next few days, but the overall trend was still very down, so I imagine to enter here would have been seen as very risky/speculative ?? Even entering in the week leading up to the 9th October, due to the fact that the trend (even though levelling out) had still not clearly reversed would still have been "an educated guess??"

The 11th October is kind of the obvious move in price with good volume, but is this an entry point?? and the 12th october is an "inside????" day (I think) .......... so at this point we still dont have confirmation?

Not sure what to make of the next 2 days Very little price movement and lower volumes ............ The gap open on the 17th october looks like the move is proven to me .............. this is where I would see a less volatile position to open, BUT, have I missed the boat by being too conservative??

The 9th October (if I were being a bit more carefree) would have been my entry point, due to the moving averages "getting together" ................ I actually like using M/A's (3) combined with Volume to indicate good entry points.............. might seem too simple for many, but I see a lot of merit in them ...............

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I'll address the dates you mentioned:

12th, 13th September: the 12th rejected the low but the 13th didn't -

17th October: a small gap and small range - uncommitted maybe. It filled the next day.

9th October: actually the 9th provided me with a signal on a new tactic I am trialing - no moving average crossover though.

Watch the next few days Barney and how the price also reacts if it goes to $2.85. Ultimately I don't know where it is going but time will tell.

Barney here is another chart on PSA. All yellow lines underscore buy opportunities: the x to the right that breaks out higher.

It's Snake Pliskin said:

Hi Barney,



They show the higher close, than the day before, as an up day where candles don't. Using candles you could see a big gap down day and then it finishes higher than the open and it is an up day - an up day but bearish in nature.



I wouldn't say it is very bullish.



I find it easier to read, but others like candles.



I am waiting to see what happens with the test of $2.85ish.




I'll address the dates you mentioned:

12th, 13th September: the 12th rejected the low but the 13th didn't -

17th October: a small gap and small range - uncommitted maybe. It filled the next day.

9th October: actually the 9th provided me with a signal on a new tactic I am trialing - no moving average crossover though.

Watch the next few days Barney and how the price also reacts if it goes to $2.85. Ultimately I don't know where it is going but time will tell.

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Thanks for that Snake, I actually noticed I got my moving crossovers mixed up so the 9th was only a cross of the short term MA over the medium term MA. The long term MA was actually just about crossed today by the medium, which from the little I know,seems to be a good indicator (when the short term is above both)........... Almost confused myself with all that

Re the Point and Figure chart ........... I haven't quite been able to get my head around working them out yet, but will do a bit more reading on that ....... Again, considering energy stocks took a bit of a beating today, this stock looks strong ............. next few days will be interesting, Cheers, Barney

Ongoing Light Crude Example - Time to exit...


I don’t like the way HU (Unleaded futures) has been trading recently. I have a theory that fuel drives the oil, and not the other way. Given the strong bullish move in unleaded futures overnight, I think it’s time to wind out the Crude oil short.

Interestingly when trading futures markets, the way the spot markets are figured out can mess up the charts, especially when a series of contracts expires, and a new front month takes over. The interesting thing about crude oil, is that as you move out further in time, the price seems to be ascending. The market seems to be expecting oil to rise in price again.

So, looking at the revised pattern with the December contract becoming the front month, we now have a higher low. Have a look at the December contract pattern for interest.

If we see a rally here, it may be a wave 4, find a high, and test down again, so any longs initiated here will be risky, and suggest a half exit approach at obvious resistance points would be a sensible approach.

The higher low could be taken to be a signal for a short term long. The October 12th increment seems to have had a greater significance, and the October 30th date will be interesting to see what transpires, depending on the way Crude oil trades into it.


Regards


Magdoran

Mag

Being the total cynic, I am expecting a post election oil bull :batman:

There has been a lot of talk of pre election manipulation on oil, gold, eco #'s & equities; which I am quite prepared to go along with.

The SP is the most suspicious looking chart I've seen for some time.

FWIW

wayneL said:

Mag

Being the total cynic, I am expecting a post election oil bull :batman:

There has been a lot of talk of pre election manipulation on oil, gold, eco #'s & equities; which I am quite prepared to go along with.

The SP is the most suspicious looking chart I've seen for some time.

FWIW

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Hi Wayne,

Should have known you'd be out of the "Crypt"!

Very tired here - it's a trading bonanza at the moment, and I have too many opportunities to follow up on, so was doing my due diligence, and then thought I'd wrap up the oil trade example too...

Just don't like the way oil’s trading for the short side. I've also have a sneaking suspicion that copper and gold may shoot up from here.

That S&P 500 will be interesting to watch if oil makes a run up. But sometimes equity runs can foster economic prosperity since sufficient confidence is maintained to keep the wheels turning...

Maybe oil causes a pull back in the S&P 500??? Hard to know... But it’s been very bullish hasn’t it?

How do you like the charts by the way?



Regards


Magdoran