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I cannot believe the market slumped post bailout!

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Rastan

Rastan

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The DOW and asia down, what would have been the reaction if they didn't pass the bill for goodness sakes..?

http://news.theage.com.au/business/us-stocks-slump-after-bailout-approved-20081004-4tot.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stocks-end-day-week/story.aspx?guid={EF81D741-5F2E-4B25-AA1C-7288BC936D9C}

We can probably assume that AUS will obediently follow the US as it always does... I feel a bit damned if you do, damned if you dont... Obv if you are long term you can opt to weather it out.

Hopefully Monday isn't going to be another rorting slide but it doesnt look good....
 
Rastan said:
The DOW and asia down, what would have been the reaction if they didn't pass the bill for goodness sakes..?

http://news.theage.com.au/business/us-stocks-slump-after-bailout-approved-20081004-4tot.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stocks-end-day-week/story.aspx?guid={EF81D741-5F2E-4B25-AA1C-7288BC936D9C}

We can probably assume that AUS will obediently follow the US as it always does... I feel a bit damned if you do, damned if you dont... Obv if you are long term you can opt to weather it out.

Hopefully Monday isn't going to be another rorting slide but it doesnt look good....
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its rarely rational Rastan, just got to trade what the market gives us


re bailout:

like a euphoric drunk, keen to consume more, the markets rally because its happy hour; $700 billion for all-and-sundry

then comes the hang-over, the sobering,
the drunks realise their booze driven euphoria is not reflected back to them by the reality on Main Street.

No. Happy hour has finished and only a head-ache remains.

Back to reality.


PS you went long at 4.10pm fri did you?
 
I think the market had already factored in the bill passing through.

I don't think they believe it will do much even the US pollies are saying it's just to build confidence but little else.

I think our market will flounder and fall on further bad news, there wont be any good news.

It's like theTitanic, it's been fatally hit, it will sink, we're just waiting while the water slowly fills the hull and we're dragged under.
 
This is why it fell post bail out:

"Wall Street welcomed the action, but investors also were buffeted by a bad report on the job market. The Labor Department said employers slashed 159,000 jobs in September, the largest cut in five years and further evidence of a sinking economy."
 
One way or another the market will go lower, at the end of the day no one wants to buy in these conditions, bailout or no bailout. I still expect a low in Mid to late October. The question is...what kind of rally will ensue?

Cheers,


CanOz
 
Did anyone else get a call from a (I won't name them) broker at 12:30pm Friday afternoon claiming the bill had been signed and that I should be buying.

Next thing I know he is asking for my credit card and who he should make out the invoice to.

Must be feeling lucky that it was signed...
 
thanks tech - i looked at 'New Posts' but didn't see that thread - didn't mean to start a hijack. Well if anything this has proven to me that even if you think you can predict the outcome of an event you still can't predict the markets reaction to it. Also when it comes to securities - generally whatever I'm thinking - so is everyone else - maybe a double and triple think is in order.

I (like everyone else in retrospect) had a good hunch that the bill would be passed so I (over)loaded up hoping to 'sell the news', not only has the reaction been bad but commodities are down and I bought mostly commodities and energy - and i thought last week was bad. If you can weather the storm then Nov/Dec might be good but I was placing a quick one based on the bailout decision (cant finance it long term - even just a month). I was hoping to help claw back some of the last 2 months damage on the way back up if/when the bill passed. Doh! :banghead:
 
Rastan said:
thanks tech - i looked at 'New Posts' but didn't see that thread - didn't mean to start a hijack. Well if anything this has proven to me that even if you think you can predict the outcome of an event you still can't predict the markets reaction to it. Also when it comes to securities - generally whatever I'm thinking - so is everyone else - maybe a double and triple think is in order.

I (like everyone else in retrospect) had a good hunch that the bill would be passed so I (over)loaded up hoping to 'sell the news', not only has the reaction been bad but commodities are down and I bought mostly commodities and energy - and i thought last week was bad. If you can weather the storm then Nov/Dec might be good but I was placing a quick one based on the bailout decision (cant finance it long term - even just a month). I was hoping to help claw back some of the last 2 months damage on the way back up if/when the bill passed. Doh! :banghead:
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We need to be looking for clues that a bottom has been put in. The Markets need to purge the rest of weak hands in an all out capitualtion, which in my view has not happened yet because the silly Govment keeps meddling.

I'm worried that if all the boomers start unloading thier 401ks into the market it could go much, much further though.

CanOz
 
CanOz said:
We need to be looking for clues that a bottom has been put in. The Markets need to purge the rest of weak hands in an all out capitualtion, which in my view has not happened yet because the silly Govment keeps meddling.

I'm worried that if all the boomers start unloading thier 401ks into the market it could go much, much further though.

CanOz
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CanOz, what is the '401ks'?
 
Buffet was interviwed prior to Senate vote.

A quoted excerpt is provided below:

“In my adult lifetime, I don’t think I’ve ever seen people as fearful economically as they are right now…. This is really an economic Pearl Harbor. That sounds melodramatic, and I’ve never used that phrase before, but this really is one. When $40 billion of Treasury bills are sold, like they were last week, 7-day Treasury bills, at a yield of 1/20 of 1 percent, that means the whole country, or a lot of the country, is at the point of putting their money under the mattress. You’re only 1/20 of 1 percent away from where it’s better to put the money under the mattress. You don’t want 300 million Americans putting their money under the mattress. This economy doesn’t work well without the lubrication of credit. And trust. And that’s been lost.”

The link to the interview:

http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2008/10/01/1/an-exclusive-conversation-with-warren-buffett
 
Greetings all --

This is a slight over-simplification, but not by much --

Start with the US Federal budget for comparison -- $2.5 trillion, plus or minus, depending on what is admitted to. It takes the US congress most of the year to agree on what will be included.

Add a panic-induced request that an additional $0.7 trillion (28% of the annual budget), plus or minus, depending on how much additional spending was added to get it passed. This money is to be manufactured on demand -- it does not exist in any budget category now. It may or may not be eventually repaid. The congress is told that they must immediately pass this appropriation or "there may not be an economy on Monday morning" (New York Times reporting on the crisis meetings).

The dispersal of these funds is under the exclusive control of the executive branch of the government -- George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Henry Paulson, etal -- who will be essentially unsupervised, have four lame-duck months left in their administration, and have a record of mismanagement of funds under the best of circumstances.

So, should we be confidant and buy, or concerned and sell?

Thanks,
Howard
 
The bottom line is Wall St is only now begrudgingly conceding that the real economy is in recession. Without shorters there will be not be anyone to set low points to rally from. Don't look for a bottom this year at least? It's only just started!
 
howardbandy said:
The dispersal of these funds is under the exclusive control of the executive branch of the government -- George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Henry Paulson, etal -- who will be essentially unsupervised, have four lame-duck months left in their administration, and have a record of mismanagement of funds under the best of circumstances.

So, should we be confidant and buy, or concerned and sell?
Click to expand...

Well, when you put it like that, given the dubious nature of the decision making of this mob in the past you've got to wonder how they'll turn this mess to their own advantages.
 
theasxgorilla said:
Well, when you put it like that, given the dubious nature of the decision making of this mob in the past you've got to wonder how they'll turn this mess to their own advantages.
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They've done all they can so will simply leave and let someone else sort it out.
They already have created "Their own advantage" and in doing so creating the mess,no need to do anything with it--JOB DONE.

As I have said before Democratic Dictatorship.
 
tech/a said:
They've done all they can so will simply leave and let someone else sort it out.
They already have created "Their own advantage" and in doing so creating the mess,no need to do anything with it--JOB DONE.

As I have said before Democratic Dictatorship.
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It suprises me that nothing much is said about Hank Paulson (Treasury Secretary) being worth $700 million.

What other industry could a shmuck like that earn that much money?
Answer- None, only the finance industry.

Paulsons rescue package is really saying " We have milked the system dry (thank you), please give us some more cash, so we can do it again (thanks again and goodbye)" [actually bad buy].

Wake up America, the perpetrators are under your nose.
 
I wasn't surprised, you don't just pull $700b out of no where, it has to come from somewhere and in this case, borrowed from overseas (UAE and Asia), paid back with interest by American tax payers... I believe there are far more banks (as there are 8000+ banks in the USA "yes 8000+, not 800+") which are already in trouble which no one knows about yet. This has a long way to go before confidence is regained. Hopefully unemployment doesn't snowball upwards as I was reading many companies can't even borrow money to pay wages!
 
Hi,

Method,

you don't just pull $700b out of no where,
Click to expand...

They are just printing it, it is coming out of thin air. By doing it they are debasing the whole currency.

Howard, thanks for that $2.5T figure. I was trying to find it to put the $700b (at any one time) figure into context.

Basically the bailout means that Wall Street is more important than either Defense spending, Education or Health this financial year. To me it means that the new govt will have a very hard time to rein in spending in next years budget, as there are many angry people in the US.

I'm also thinking that the passing of the bailout really is the case of "times up" for the current financial system, and realization of such by many around the world. Problem is, no-one has an alternative that is easy to get to.

brty
 
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