I am not endorsing any product, website, black box or other commercial fluff, just the research, I can prove the results are 100% accurate.
I am flattered by skepticism.
I am happy if the thread ends here.
Thank you.
I am not selling anything here, I was after just after some feedback on it, (predicting stock market direction, definitely can be done)
If I went to a brokerage, would they take me seriously, probably not, unless I could prove the results, which I can, and then they would steal it.
So I will keep on trading it, and keep it to myself, for another four years.
Thank you for posting.
do you know how Google Finance was started? At Google each employee can spend 20 percent of their time on personal projects, working on things they are interested in. This is how Google Finance was started, by two engineers working alone on their project. Once they had something to show, they pitched the idea to the Google senior management Sergey Brin and Larry Page, who decided to back the idea and put huge resources of the company behind it. Google has a huge number of potential projects from their own employees, so they are unlikely to follow up something from outsiders. Google seek to own intellectual property so it's not worth sharing it with them.We contacted Google finance last week with a proposal, to prove our research, and are waiting for a reply.
I am not selling anything here, I was after just after some feedback on it, (predicting stock market direction, definitely can be done)
If I went to a brokerage, would they take me seriously, probably not, unless I could prove the results, which I can, and then they would steal it.
So I will keep on trading it, and keep it to myself, for another four years.
Thank you for posting.
I am not selling anything here, I was after just after some feedback on it, (predicting stock market direction, definitely can be done)
If I went to a brokerage, would they take me seriously, probably not, unless I could prove the results, which I can, and then they would steal it.
So I will keep on trading it, and keep it to myself, for another four years.
Thank you for posting.
[2] substantiate these trades with "actual" broker statements for all to view
I looked up a book review of Mandelbrot's "The Misbehaviour of Markets", and it sounds convincing:Didn't Benoit Mandelbrot already find rather persausive evidence against random walk using cotton data in the 1960s?
The author renders a brilliant critique of modern finance theory. He criticizes all its components, including CAPM, the Efficient Market Hypothesis, and the Black Scholes model as being flawed. All these theories rely on two main assumptions. The first one is that market prices are normally distributed. The author, using price charts, demonstrates that market prices do not follow a normal distribution; but instead a Cauchy distribution. Such a distribution is associated with fatter tails. This means that catastrophic drop in market prices happen more frequently than a normal distribution suggests. The second assumption of modern finance is that market prices are independent of each other. Yesterday's prices have no influence on today's. The author makes a case that even if prices are not correlated, their volatility is correlated over time. Thus, big price swings tend to cluster. If a stock moved by 10% yesterday, it is likely it will move by an above average amount today even if we don't know the direction of that change. He calls this correlation of volatility (instead of price) long-term dependence.
Mandelbrot's "The Misbehaviour of Markets"
Malkiel argues that asset prices typically exhibit signs of random walk and that one can not consistently outperform market averages.
Random walk existed long before Malkiel. This wikipedia article is probably more helpful...there seems to be a lot of misconception about what random walk hypothesis actually is.
A Markov process, is a mathematical model for the random evolution of a memoryless system, that is, one for which the likelihood of a given future state, at any given moment, depends only on its present state, and not on any past states.
The random walk hypothesis was also applied to NBA basketball. Psychologists made a detailed study of every shot the Philadelphia 76ers made over one and a half seasons of basketball. The psychologists found no positive correlation between the previous shots and the outcomes of the shots afterwards. Economists and believers in the random walk hypothesis apply this to the stock market. The actual lack of correlation of past and present can be easily seen. If a stock goes up one day, no stock market participant can accurately predict that it will rise again the next. Just as a basketball player with the “hot hand” can miss his or her next shot, the stock that seems to be on the rise can fall at any time, making it completely random.
if it's possible to calculate every possibility within a short enough time, then I think it's worth doing, rather than take a sample. We have to make the most of the computer's strengths. Like how the chess computer Deep Thought/Blue had a massive brute force advantage to calculate all positions to a certain depth, which then allowed intelligent moves to emerge naturally.Some Neural networks for financial applications are nothing but new-data curve fitting techniques. NN, especially PNNs "learn", not just plough through every possibility in something akin to a brute-force attack.
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