How low can the All Ords go?

[LRG]

I subscribe to Huntley's who's view was that the Jan 22 low of 5200ish was the low to rally off to new highs going forward.

This has now proven not to be the case.

I have heard some say that it is now heading to 4700 before it bottoms.

We have so many "expert" opinions - some say black, some say white.

Statistically, 50% will be right and 50% will be wrong.

I think maybe more downside over the next 6 months at least.

What do people think???

 

[wayneL]

Re: How low can All Ords go?

I subscribe to Huntley's who's view was that the Jan 22 low of 5200ish was the low to rally off to new highs going forward.

This has now proven not to be the case.

I have heard some say that it is now heading to 4700 before it bottoms.

We have so many "expert" opinions - some say black, some say white.

Statistically, 50% will be right and 50% will be wrong.

I think maybe more downside over the next 6 months at least.

What do people think???

How long is a piece of string?

It is conceivable that the XJO could end up in the 3000s. I say this by drawing a line through the financials... the big banks etc.

If not for the resilience of the big miners, (and desperation measures from the Fed) we'd nearly be there already. IMO

If the miners come off 3000s are a dead cert.

 

[wildmanchris]

Agree with Wayne.

I wouldnt call 3000's but then again, I didnt think the hole was as deep as it's proven to be already. All you have to do is to read finance headlines each day to realise that there is potentially so much more bad news to come.

Look at the companies that have already struggled to refinance or been called on loans, and add RJT to that mess as well. I know of a few more companies with high debt levels that may find themselves in trouble very soon - the charts all show the same direction over the last 12 months as well.

It doesnt surprise me that the futures are up as much as they are in the US tonight, but this happened a few weeks ago at the last cut and it lasted a few days and then turned. I have heard it referred to as a sucker rally in some cases, and I would guess we will see another one of those over the next few days.

My money is safe and sound in ING for the time being, and if it wasnt there it would be shorting financials - MQG and BNB's bottom is anyones guess based on fear, and fear alone.

 

[Bill M]

What do people think???

Nobody knows, can go either way. The way I look at it is if you have money would you like to get income of 5% after tax in a cash account or 7% after tax in fully franked dividends? My choice is easy as I am a long term investor. If you aren't a long term investor then the sharemarket may not be for you.

A chart can tell you where a stock has been but can't tell you where it will go. You only need to read reviews of everybody's individual interpretations on other threads.

Good luck with your investments.

 

[prawn_86]

ZERO

 

[Julia]

My money is safe and sound in ING for the time being, and if it wasnt there it would be shorting financials - MQG and BNB's bottom is anyones guess based on fear, and fear alone.

What makes you so sure your money is "safe and sound in ING"?

 

[Dezza]

What makes you so sure your money is "safe and sound in ING"?

Because Billy Connolly said so in the ads. :

If people knew where the market was going, there wouldn't be any fun in trading. Wasn't it only in 2005 or so that they were saying it'll drop to 4800, then ended up at 6000. Now, it's the other way around.

 

[wildmanchris]

What makes you so sure your money is "safe and sound in ING"?

Good old Billy, funny and smart.

Fair call - nothings safe at the moment. But i'd rather have it there than long in anything at the moment. It'll be back in the markets soon enough, but not until we've seen an investment bank fall.

 

[Julia]

I asked because I have found myself hesitant about placing a term deposit with one of the Big Four!!!
Such is the contagion of fear.

 

[Dezza]

TDs currently offering around 7-8% depending on terms, which is pretty tempting in current conditions. GUARANTEED!

You wouldn't believe the amount of TDs and annuities being recommended at the moment at the funds manager I work for.

So you're not the only one a lil' worried at the moment. But you'll just have to weigh up your investment objectives / timeframe and see which option is for you. Discuss with your adviser / accountant / family etc to see what's best for you.

 

[Synergy]

Bad news is a funny thing. A steady flow of it will cause an over reaction. Even after we are prepared to sit back and call it an over reaction, more bad news will send us back past our previous low. Didn't we learn the first time? The current events were predicted a few months ago and we are still being surprised by them and reacting to them as though we didn't have the faintest idea about them.

Also where on a 1 - 10 scale would this current crisis sit? Is it deserving of wiping 25% off our market value? If the US were to fall off the map what would our market be worth? Obviously it wouldn't be worthless. Maybe 50% of its current value? I doubt the current crisis is half as bad as that. For me we are in a major over reaction, but thats the market. Or maybe i'm talking dribble.

 

[rederob]

Re: How low can All Ords go?

It is conceivable that the XJO could end up in the 3000s. I say this by drawing a line through the financials... the big banks etc.

If not for the resilience of the big miners, (and desperation measures from the Fed) we'd nearly be there already. IMO

I think the low 4000s is a dead cert.
If the derivatives market starts to unwind, then halve it!

That said, I believe this is more about timeframes and fundamentals than mere numbers.
In timeframe terms I think buying in at the moment is silly unless you have got onto something moving against the trend for good reason (maybe oil or gold stocks). The markets need time to digest all the bad news, and more time again to determine that it's ok to start heading up again: 2009 is looking like it's worthing waiting for.
Additionally, until the US has had its Fed interest rates sit at zero for a quarter or so, I for one will keep a lot of powder dry.

In fundamental terms its the difference between a US recession, and a US depression: The former may not impact global industrial production to the extent that our allords dips under 4K. The latter locks in 3K and could see us lower still.

As an investor, I had thought 4300 was a good point to consider a strong market re-entry: From a long term perspective it will probably prove profitable. However, as a thinking investor, I regard it unwise to use numbers per se in the present climate.

There are many market indicators that will give us signals a return to equity investing can be profitable and I intend to line up as many of these as practicable.

 

[Birdster]

... If you aren't a long term investor then the sharemarket may not be for you.

A chart can tell you where a stock has been but can't tell you where it will go. You only need to read reviews of everybody's individual interpretations on other threads.....

Well said. Thought this was one of those "poll" threads till yor post Bill. If you are looking to go long, now "might" be the time if you get the right advice, IMO. 50% will say I'm wrong and 50% will wait till I'm wrong.

If you are there in for a sweep, pick your codes well, or let it go for another day/week/month.

Gambling vs. investing...make sure the definitions are kept as far apart as possible.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Must be due for some flattening out and sideways movement. A time for reflection and an easing of volatility.

 

[wayneL]

Oh murther!

A new crop of fundy *investors who have no idea about technical trading, yet feel qualified to criticize. LOL

I've done it too many times, would someone enlighten these chaps?

 

[wildmanchris]

Oh murther!

A new crop of fundy *investors who have no idea about technical trading, yet feel qualified to criticize. LOL

I've done it too many times, would someone enlighten these chaps?

Easing of volatility wasnt something I was expecting to see in the near future, but who knows. I've seen stranger things..........

 

[Smurf1976]

TDs currently offering around 7-8% depending on terms, which is pretty tempting in current conditions. GUARANTEED!

Trouble is, that guarantee is worthless the moment you need it...

 

[tech/a]

A chart can tell you where a stock has been but can't tell you where it will go.

Not where it will go but where it is likely to go.
Radge is right.
All analysis regardless of what you choose is nothing more than Prove-Disprove-Prove-Disprove.

In other words its correct until proven wrong.
You/we all trade according to our analysis.

We are constantly anticipating the market through analysis.

 

[wayneL]

Not where it will go but where it is likely to go.
Radge is right.
All analysis regardless of what you choose is nothing more than Prove-Disprove-Prove-Disprove.

In other words its correct until proven wrong.
You/we all trade according to our analysis.

We are constantly anticipating the market through analysis.

'zactly

Not only that, a price chart delivers logical points of price (and some say time) whereby we can determine proof or disproof.

 

[DB008]

any analysis (F/A, charts etc etc) is only looking at the PAST.
you want to look at the future, do futures.
How long is that piece of string???