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- 12 September 2004
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Touche' - but I retort, good sir, that they are not mutually exclusive terms
Touche' - but I retort, good sir, that they are not mutually exclusive termsNobody has pointed out the difference to you between a nutter and a socialist?
Fair points - one would expect a swing away from Oakeshott if voters are unhappy with his support for Gillard, although I say some of the swing will be tempered if the pork barrel for the country independants was particularly full.Mofra, I'm not sure that the nats in Lyne will need to do too much extra work.
- Labor leaning people who voted for Oakeshott would either vote for Oakeshott again or vote labor.
- Coalition leaning people who voted for him won't make that mistake again and would be likely to vote National.
Even if Oakeshott's votes are evenly split down the middle as half favouring labor and half favouring coalition the numbers of primary votes could be as follows (rounded):
Oakeshott - 20,000 + preferences from Labor & greens = 35,000
Labor 11,500
Greens 3,500
Nationals 29,000 + 20,000 (disgruntled with Oakeshott) = 49,000
All hypothetical, but not impossible.
AEC figures as at today's date: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=579681
OAKESHOTT, Robert Independent 40,067 47.16%
LIPS, Frederik Labor 11,456 13.48%
GILLESPIE, David The Nationals 29,214 34.38%
WRIGHT, Barry Independent 586 0.69%
OXENFORD, Ian The Greens 3,645 4.29%
Isn't there a seat that has been thrown into doubt? I can't remember the name of it and can't understand the AEC website (too many links).
Independends will do anything it takes to last 3 years and grab as much as they get.
The cracks are starting to appear already. Can't wait September 28.
Snake, it's Corangamite. Here's the link straight to the close seat page at AEC:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseCloseSeats-15508-NAT.htm
With just over 95% of the vote counted for Corangamite I would think it unlikely to change now. Labor are ahead in that seat by about 770 on the 2PP count.
I suppose the libs could ask for a recount though. They would have nothing to lose and possibly an election to gain...
haha Noco - maybe this is why some labor supporters here are into "knock Abbott" and "knock opposition in general" mode in an effort to deflect from the cracks that are going on inside their favoured party...
They don't seem to realise they won this thing by a whisker, but nevertheless, they won (for now). Why are they not promoting the good things their party does (if there are any - lol) rather than pick holes in the other side.
Why not celebrate their victory instead of going out of their way to kick the opposition...
Could it be they fear another election sooner rather than later...
We have passed the 6 months mark so 9 voters (20.45%) got it wrong, in fact the government is looking quite strong in my opinion, the alliance holding firm, hasn't really even been tested yet...the Govt would be an odds on bet to stay in power passed the 1 year mark i would reckon.
The government looking quite strong?We have passed the 6 months mark so 9 voters (20.45%) got it wrong, in fact the government is looking quite strong in my opinion,
How can you be so in denial of reality?
Hell is what the current government is experiencing.
I'm curious to know why there wasn't a Newspoll published last week.Ms. Gillard is running out of fingers to plug all the holes in the dyke. We could say she really does not know what she is doing.
Yes polls do come and go but unfortunately for Ms. Gillard her's is only going one way; south.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...nd-so-do-leaders/story-e6frgd0x-1226044649356
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