How long will the new minority Government last?

So_Cynical · 7 September 2010

Will be interesting to see people thoughts on how long this Labor/Green/independents alliance will last, personally i reckon there good to go the whole 3 years but im a political optimist and the whole "Lets all join hands and work together" thing gives me a warm gooey feeling. :1luvu:

Probably why 1 vote Tony never really had a chance...the independents just couldn't really see him at a love in.

basilio · 7 September 2010

One vote majority... A heart attack, a trip under a bus, a scandal real or manufactured, a wooing of one disaffected party members and it's all over.

I suspect that the Coalition would be already working out how to push over the government by picking off one Labour member. Normally of course you wouldn't waste time with such tactics. No point. But now... The prize is power.

It will be really interesting to see how the Gillard government attempts to keep discipline within the party and protect it's majority. Interesting times.

And of course until July next year the opposition can frustrate the government through the Senate at will. That will be interesting to watch.

So_Cynical · 7 September 2010

lol i took to long to make the poll...hate that 20 minute thing sometimes.

wayneL · 8 September 2010

Timing will be important. The coalition will want to wait until Labor screws up, or starts erecting statues of Lenin (hyperbole you understand ) before pushing too hard.

They don't want to be seen as spoilers as they save Oz from another socialist experiment.

nulla nulla · 8 September 2010

I suspect there will be no big ticket changes put to the senate until the senate changes come through next year. It will be steady as she goes until they get into clear water.

nomore4s · 8 September 2010

Have added a poll.

Bushman · 8 September 2010

Imagine the fun at the next by-election!

Some early predictions:
- NBN will be very expensive and $43b has largely been pulled out of hat.
- Oakshott/Windsor will come under increasing pressure from their conservative constituency and this will test their resolve for a 'stable gov't'.
- You have friction from day 1 b/w Greens and Independents re climate change legislation.
- Abbott will go hard and long at a wounded opponent, as he should! He should also have a field day, as the mantra of 'spend spend spend' by the coalition of the spenders places pressure on the budget deficit and inflation/interest rates.
- The Labour factions will go into hibernation in awhile but will come into play as Gillard's polls start to slip due to affordability, deficits and the NBN 'white elephant'.

Undoubtedly though the Oakshott/Windsor have given Gillard a foothold from which to save the Labor party.

Pass me the popcorn in about 6-12 months time when the honeymoon is over.

Logique · 8 September 2010

nomore4s said:
Have added a poll.

Apparently the bookies are framing odds on an election by 31 Dec. But I think the value bet would be for this govt to go full term or very nearly so. The one thing the rainbow coalition do share is the desire to retain power.

I voted full term.

-Bevo- · 8 September 2010

Things off to a shakey start already?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/08/3005635.htm
Mining tax back to haunt Labor

sails · 8 September 2010

-Bevo- said:
Things off to a shakey start already?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/08/3005635.htm
Mining tax back to haunt Labor

Thanks Bevo - and from that article:

Speaking this morning, Mr Windsor said he had been under the impression the mining tax would be up for discussion.

He has indicated he is not happy about its exclusion and says he wants talks with Mr Swan.

"That's the first time I've heard of that," he told Radio National. "I thought it was going to be included in any discussions in relation to taxation and the Henry Review."

Windsor will have to get used to spins and backflips due to the recent history of the side he has chosen. I doubt that Windsor wants an early election anymore than Labor / Greens so he might just find himself facing a few brick walls.

Have no idea how long before a new election. There have been so many twists and turns, I wouldn't like to guess...

trainspotter · 8 September 2010

One of the best "Marriages of Convenience" I have witnessed in a long time. It will not be long before the wedding cake paralyses the country from the neck down. The golden handcuff will be thrown across the room along with the cutlery and the bags will be packed and thrown out on the lawn.

The minors sitting on the cross benches will have their santa sack full of goodies to stuff down their collective electorates throats and the country will suffer under this melting pot of political idealism.

Reminds me why you only have one captain on a ship. When all else fails try doing what the captain suggested.

Mofra · 8 September 2010

wayneL said:
They don't want to be seen as spoilers as they save Oz from another socialist experiment.

Ah yes, McCarthyism, Funny

The biggest socialist in the lower house supported the coaliiton

Mofra · 8 September 2010

Logique said:
Apparently the bookies are framing odds on an election by 31 Dec. But I think the value bet would be for this govt to go full term or very nearly so. The one thing the rainbow coalition do share is the desire to retain power.

Windsor is not standing for re-election next term, and Oakshotte will be very lucky to survive the Nationals hack job by the time the next election rolls around. Both will be keen to ensure the gummint stays in as long as possible.

Any change to coalition will need to happen with enough time to swear them in well before July 1 next year, as if Abbott can't negotiate with 4 independants he has buckley's chance against a Green-dominated senate.

IFocus · 8 September 2010

The ultimate for Abbott should he continue in the leadership would be an election close to a NSW state election. NSW will likely be a blood bath for Labor and so it should be pity the Liberals under O'Farrell are basket cases to and not much better.

sorcar · 8 September 2010

I personally think that it will either be a very very short term or the complete full term - not the in between

If they cant control a minority government then it will show up very quickly... if they can.. then it will go the whole way.

wayneL · 8 September 2010

Mofra said:
Ah yes, McCarthyism, Funny

The biggest socialist in the lower house supported the coaliiton

Nobody has pointed out the difference to you between a nutter and a socialist?

sails · 8 September 2010

Mofra said:
Windsor is not standing for re-election next term, and Oakshotte will be very lucky to survive the Nationals hack job by the time the next election rolls around. Both will be keen to ensure the gummint stays in as long as possible.....

Mofra, I'm not sure that the nats in Lyne will need to do too much extra work.

Labor leaning people who voted for Oakeshott would either vote for Oakeshott again or vote labor.
Coalition leaning people who voted for him won't make that mistake again and would be likely to vote National.

Even if Oakeshott's votes are evenly split down the middle as half favouring labor and half favouring coalition the numbers of primary votes could be as follows (rounded):

Oakeshott - 20,000 + preferences from Labor & greens = 35,000
Labor 11,500
Greens 3,500

Nationals 29,000 + 20,000 (disgruntled with Oakeshott) = 49,000

All hypothetical, but not impossible.

AEC figures as at today's date: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=579681
OAKESHOTT, Robert Independent 40,067 47.16%
LIPS, Frederik Labor 11,456 13.48%
GILLESPIE, David The Nationals 29,214 34.38%
WRIGHT, Barry Independent 586 0.69%
OXENFORD, Ian The Greens 3,645 4.29%

Whiskers · 8 September 2010

sails said:
Have no idea how long before a new election. There have been so many twists and turns, I wouldn't like to guess...

I'll have a pretty good guess... until the next by-election.

How many governments have served a full term without a by-election?

I think I even heard someone comment in the media that this (coalition) government is one heart attack away from over.

PS: I agree with basilio. The pressure will be on and the hound dogs will be looking harder than ever for any sign of a controversy... real heart attack times.

So_Cynical · 8 September 2010

nomore4s said:
Have added a poll.

Thanks.

---------------

Whatever happens, the important thing for all concerned will be to come out of this as a clean skin...any party or individual that gets the blame for causing the next election better have either a rock solid constituency or some sort of very sellable reason for ending it early.

While i think it will go all the way...im also very aware that there's a couple of dozen deal breakers that have to be very carefully worked thru and around and that's just not going to be easy, not business as usual.

sails · 9 September 2010

And the saga continues: Rob Oakeshott and Wayne Swan collide on mining tax

LABOR'S alliance with the two rural independents has hit its first hurdle, with Rob Oakeshott demanding the mining tax be included in the government's proposed tax summit, despite Wayne Swan's refusal to allow the original super-profits tax to be discussed.

How long will the new minority Government last?