Australia is now looking toward Asia for their money.
well it says more about the people that make those affordable suburbs, unattractive to others, than anything else....
one of my daughters tried living in the West in Sydney ...she did not last long...
her majority of Timorese and Fijian neighbours threw the dirty disposable nappies out the window, onto the lawn and onto the street.....she said the stench 24/7 was unbearable....and that was about the least of the awful things they did....apart from the almost monthly break ins....she barely lasted 3 months...she did not fit in with that culture
Ask Zimbabwe about yields and see how much they are getting
COMMONWEALTH Bank has refused to rule out the prospect of a mortgage rate rise ahead of next month's Reserve Bank board meeting.
Banking analysts are suggesting the country's largest home lender is poised to increase its standard variable rate home loan by as much as 10 basis points this month because its funding costs are continuing to rise.
Such a move would be controversial because CBA and the other major banks have not passed on the full benefit of recent official rate cuts by the Reserve Bank.
MORE Queensland families than ever are losing their homes and businesses to the banks, after a record number of repossession claims in April.
As the global economic crisis forces up the jobless rate, new figures from the Justice Department show lenders lodged 176 claims to repossess homes or businesses in the state's courts during April.
A Justice spokesman has confirmed it is the highest monthly total since records began, about 1992, The Courier-Mail reports.
MORE than 35,300 Australians lost their jobs in May with Australia’s unemployment rate jumping back up to 5.7 per cent, after it took an unexpected slide in April.
In March, the rate was 5.7 per cent leaving 650,900 people out of work.
.....upward revision to 5.5% for March
thats funny...which article do you believe.....is it the seasonally adjusted figures that are out....and look at the different full time and part time figures...one is the opposite to the other....
updated......
so here are the actual figures from the ABS site...
EMPLOYMENT
decreased by 1,700 to 10,793,100. Full-time employment decreased by 26,200 to 7,643,100 and part-time employment increased by 24,500 to 3,150,000.
UNEMPLOYMENT
increased by 27,200 to 651,200. The number of persons looking for full-time work increased by 30,000 to 482,600 and the number of persons looking for part-time work decreased by 2,800 to 168,600.
...................................................................
hmmm.....so full time employment decreased by 26,200 but PT increased by 24500 = difference of 1700
but then how do they come up with unemployment increased by 27200...if employment decreased overall by 1700 ???.....I think the answer lies in those PT people that increased by 24500...were actually looking for full time work....
how else do you explain...on one hand there is only a 1700 decrease in employment....but on the other hand there is an increase in unemployment......
ps I cannot be bothered wasting time on this useless figures
then the article in the age............
dhukka...my numbers and comprehension are just fine...
now since we have been there and done this everytime the unemployment numbers come out....and the reality is....its not taken from centrelink with actual numbers of people registered for unemployment.....
but taken from a survey by ABS...a telephone call to 20 odd households...and the respondents say oh yes...dave still has a job, but the kids looking for work, and sara works pt...but bill down the road is looking for work I think...or is he on the dole....and me mate in timbuktoo just got a ft job...but his mate went pt...and the wife is working pt but looking for ft work...
so there you have it.....a whole lot of rubbish....and then the abs seasonally adjusts the figures....then the treasurer says make them figures look good..
I will leave it to you people who are good with numbers to fight over it
hehehehehehe:sheep:
Beej,
I wonder if you could provide evidence that consumer confidence is highly correlated with economic outcomes like GDP growth. I thought the following was the highlight of yesterday's consumer confidence report:
A survey of 2000 peoples opinions is economicaly irrelevant - it obviously didn't include 2000 people who have just lost their jobs and/or houses.
Now you would have to agree on at least one thing, and that is the importance of interest rates on property buyers? Yes or no? Now you would also have to agree that long US treasuries yields are going up? Yes or no? If Rudd is in the debt market to pay for his deficit then he will be competing with the other indebted economies in the world for funds, of which the US sets the bench mark.
Central banks are now zero bound on 'official' interest rates - the market is now calling the shots on the risk yield of debt! And guess what, public (government) debt is going up, not down!
10 year US treasuries yields are rising - surely you can't deny that? Simple, hard facts not subject to human opinion.
The view that Consumer Confidence correlates with economic outcomes is by no means a new or even controversial idea! So I'll let you research that one for yourself if you think otherwise. I know someone who has based entire medium/long term equity trading strategies around the CC indicator and being very successful doing that over the past 20 years, including using it to signal exit and re-entry for the current bear market at what have turned out to be very opportune times.
Of course it pays to understand the data thoroughly and read all the information as you did.
Indices of business and consumer sentiment receive widespread media coverage and are closely watched by market economists despite their limited success as leading indicators. In this paper we ask what explains ‘sentiment’ and find that lagged economic indicators (such as changes in GDP, job vacancies and the cash rate) can explain a substantial proportion of the variation in a number of backward and forward-looking sentiment indices. This does not rule out the possibility that they may be useful for forecasting. We find, however, that when currently available economic information is appropriately ‘filtered’ from the sentiment indices, in most cases they fail even rudimentary Granger-causality tests of predictive ability. On a more positive note, we find that the Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating, NAB actual business conditions, NAB expected employment outlook over the next three months and the second question in the Roy Morgan and Westpac/MI consumer surveys all provide some, albeit small, contribution to forecasting employment growth. The second question of both consumer confidence surveys (which asks about anticipated personal financial conditions over the coming year) also appears to have some ability to predict recessions. Outside of these results there is little evidence that the surveys tell us anything we didn’t already know. Thus, there is reason to suspect that surveyed respondents’ forecasts offer little more information about the future path of the economy than a weighted average of lagged economic variables.
Actually your contention that:
consumer confidence index is an important leading indicator that historically has a strong correlation with economic outcomes (GDP growth etc)
is controversial. i don't need to research it because I've read the research, you are the one who needs to read it. I remember reading a paper years ago published by your mates at the RBA called "WHAT DO SENTIMENT SURVEYS MEASURE?"
Here is the abstract:
meaning that in the event of a sudden drop in income the repayment obligations, could, in the worst case scenario, be avoided by selling at least part of the household wealth."
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