Amid calls for government support, and warnings of a severe housing shortage, it’s interesting to see some analysts think we have an oversupply of property in Australia.
The information is readily available via the ABS site. 1996 dwellings = 7,175,237, with 679,165 unoccupied (9.5% vacant) and population 17,752,829. 2001 dwellings = 7,790,079, with 717,872 unoccupied (9.2% vacant) and population 18,769,249. 2006 dwellings = 8,426,559, with 830,376 unoccupied (9.9% vacant) and population 19,855,288. I would estimate that we now have about 9,100,000 dwellings, with 900,000 unoccupied (9.9% vacant) and population 21,000,000. And with 100,000 homeless we have 9 empty properties for every homeless person.
Noel George Butlin wrote a book in 1964 called “Investment in Australian Economic Development 1861-1990”. He wrote about the 1880s era, which was our second largest property bubble. In his book he states the figures demonstrating that the number of dwellings built exceeded the needs of population growth. In 1891, the census vacancy rates was about 7% in both Melbourne and Sydney, which Butlin described as excessive. The average Melbourne property fell 50% during the 1890s, and Sydney prices fell an average of 40%.
Just like the 1880s, financial institutions competed with each other by lending greater amounts of money than their competition. The more they lend, the greater the profits, and the price of properties reflect this. Property prices is determined supply and demand of money, not supply and demand of property itself.
Corydora of Wollstonecraft, Sydney
Hedonic Price Index Question....
I don't have a clue what a hedonic index is so after noting that RPData uses hedonic price indexing I thought I'd check it out.
Headache!!!!
Homebuyer stress fuels soaring repossession rate
3rd April 2009, 6:00 WST
Property repossessions in WA have soared after recent job losses, with home seizure court cases up more than 140 per cent in the past year.
Alarming Supreme Court figures released yesterday show low interest rates were not enough to save many West Australians from losing their homes in the past three months, with almost 400 repossession applications processed in the March quarter.
This is a rise of 143 per cent on the 164 repossession cases recorded at the same time last year and there are fears the rate will continue to increase with further unemployment predicted.
The rate of repossession applications is at its highest level since at least 2000 and has increased for the fourth consecutive quarter.
WA Council of Social Service chief executive Sue Ash said the March quarter repossession figure was worse than expected and she warned that more people would lose their homes in coming months amid further job losses or cuts, mortgage stress, health reasons and relationship breakdowns.
She said Perth and Bunbury’s fringe areas continued to have a noticeable increase in property repossessions.
Ms Ash said WA’s steep rise in repossessions and bankruptcies should spur the State Government to boost funding for community services to help people handle financial turmoil.
“This is a very worrying trend and the State Government should do all it can to ensure that WA doesn’t follow the lead of western Sydney, the capital of mortgage repossessions in Australia,” she said.
Some people had turned to paying mortgages with credit cards or gambling to pay bills.
In a similar bleak by-product of the global financial crisis, figures from Queensland-based insolvency firm SV Partners released this week show a 15 per cent rise in personal bankruptcies in WA over the past year.
Hegney Property Group chairman Gavin Hegney said most recent repossession victims would be non-conforming loan holders, high-risk borrowers with bad credit, because their interest rates were still high, or those with fixed-interest loans.
“A lot would have just got into the market at the peak of the boom and I’d probably say they have since lost their jobs or fallen on hard times,” he said.
Real Estate Institute of WA president Rob Druitt said repossessions were not endemic in WA. He expected the rate to plateau because he did not believe unemployment would blow out in WA as much as in other States.
A Supreme Court spokeswoman said not all applications resulted in repossessions. “The matter could be settled by consent between parties or settlement of the debt through alternative arrangements,” she said.
KATE CAMPBELL
Treasury says jobless rate to rise
3rd April 2009, 18:53 WST
The Australian economy still faces a difficult time despite the efforts of world leaders to kick-start global growth through a ground-breaking agreement at the G20 Summit in London.
Treasury Secretary Ken Henry confirmed on Friday the jobless rate would be higher than seven per cent next year, well above the latest reading of 5.2 per cent.
Sunshine and lollipops anyone?
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