House prices to keep rising for years

prawn_86 · 18 March 2009

gav said:
Best of luck prawn_86. I actually have the same goal! (paid off by 35, earlier if possible) However I've already found a place, settlement is next month

Well done Gav, the new job must be paying well then...

IFocus said:
Like I said you will be fine property will always be there but you will only ever be young once.

Trust me i have/still am ejoying my youth more than most people. How many people get to go to uni, travel overseas a couple times a year, and still finish with a bank account higher than what they started (big piss off HECS debt though)? I know im lucky so i plan on making the most of it...

kincella · 20 March 2009

the youth dont have a monoply on fun, in fact they play with limited funds generally...earning less etc....
I did the marriage, bought the house, had kids bit...partied all the time....
then the divorce, studied, worked hard.....and then partied again like never before...this time had stacks more money to play with.....after 4 years was bored...
but besides all the above...fun is still fun no matter what age you are....
I also enjoy the knowledge and experience one gains after being here awhile, have stacks of interests, and am always busy....assume I will have fun forever

and this out today...aussies are the most properous in the world....but being wealthy has nothing to do with happiness.

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...st-prosperous-in-the-world-20090320-93w2.html

aohx075 · 20 March 2009

My friend is thinking about investing money in shares soon...but I was wondering with the recent speculation of Australia's property crash, would the property industry crash have any effect on the share market? What's the correlation between the two?

My assumption is that it wouldn’t have that much of an effect on the share market in general cause:
- If people were short on capital, they’d have already sold their shares some time beforehand.
- Defaulting your mortgage would be the last option to take and you’d be forced to take that option cause you have none left.
- I guess I see it as an indicator that the economy has reached a bottom.
- I see the property market as a lagging indicator in comparison to the share market

robots · 22 March 2009

hello,

wow, another fine day in Melbourne yesterday:

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=652&nav2=162

75% clearance rate, this is unbelievable, whats going on

thankyou
robots

MACCA350 · 22 March 2009

robots said:
hello,

wow, another fine day in Melbourne yesterday:

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=652&nav2=162

75% clearance rate, this is unbelievable, whats going on

thankyou
robots

"While the auction market continues to deliver very consistent sales results the activity in the market has clearly shifted to private sales this year with the REIV recording more homes sold by private sale than the comparable time last year."

cheers

robots · 22 March 2009

MACCA350 said:
"While the auction market continues to deliver very consistent sales results the activity in the market has clearly shifted to private sales this year with the REIV recording more homes sold by private sale than the comparable time last year."

cheers

hello,

you missed this part of the statement macca350,

and with private sale you have unlimited vendor bids there, great stuff around for property owners

thankyou
robots

Beej · 22 March 2009

And the current high clearance rate, lower number of properties available trend continues in Sydney as well - 73% yesterday, 128 sold out of 176 put up. Median price sold at auction $578k (lower than past couple of weeks which have been mid $600s).

http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/sydney_domain.pdf

Cheers,

Beej.

hotbmw · 22 March 2009

guys, what about the effect of inflation. after what the US govt announced mid last week its confirmed that the whole world will print away. do u think prices will increase and those who have saved and hold money in cash over the next year or 2 waiting to buy will miss the boat?

nunthewiser · 22 March 2009

sunshine and lollipops................

unemployment levels wont rise

intrest rates wont rise

banktrupcy levels not rising

sunshine and lollipops................

MrBurns · 22 March 2009

nunthewiser said:
sunshine and lollipops................

unemployment levels wont rise

intrest rates wont rise

banktrupcy levels not rising

sunshine and lollipops................

It's a bloody housing boom !, get in while you can or you'll miss out !

Bill M · 22 March 2009

We have seen it all before, doom and gloom everywhere but the real estate prices just kept going up over time. Here is something for all the doom and gloomers to ponder about. This was cut out from page 72 of the realestate.com.au lift out from The Manly Daily yesterday.

MACCA350 · 22 March 2009

robots said:
hello,

you missed this part of the statement macca350,

and with private sale you have unlimited vendor bids there, great stuff around for property owners

thankyou
robots

I didn't miss it, the auction market seems concentrated with those who are keen to sell, auction numbers are running around 1/4 compared to last year. Unlimited vendors bids are fine, although we've been bidding them down not up. Numerous properties we've looked at have been reduced around 15% since they were brought to market......and that's before we start negotiating.

On another note, anyone notice a flood of properties hitting the market?

kincella · 22 March 2009

Ok...lets see how many fhb's we have if the govt stops the handout...I dont think its much money in the greater scheme of things...but it obviously is to those who do not save anyway.....
so I think it would be a good idea to go back to the old fashioned way...the banks demanded proof of saving over 6-12 months....so the parents could not just put up the money and pretended you saved it...
might be too hard for some who just live from week to week...

it was originally introduced to compensate for the cost of the GST for fhb's....
now its supposed to keep the builders and tradies in work....
which is a good idea....
will not have too long to wait until the may budget to find out

nunthewiser · 22 March 2009

Bill M said:
We have seen it all before, doom and gloom everywhere but the real estate prices just kept going up over time. Here is something for all the doom and gloomers to ponder about. This was cut out from page 72 of the realestate.com.au lift out from The Manly Daily.

I own realestate.....

would i buy more now at present prices in current financial climates .......... NO

good luck to those that do tho .........

all sunshine and lollipops ......must be , i read it here

singlefished · 22 March 2009

Beej said:
And the current high clearance rate, lower number of properties available trend continues in Sydney as well - 73% yesterday, 128 sold out of 176 put up. Median price sold at auction $578k (lower than past couple of weeks which have been mid $600s).

http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/sydney_domain.pdf

Cheers,

Beej.

Why are private sales included in the auction clearance figures you are quoting?

Adelaide sold nothing at auction in the last week according to the figures APM are reporting yet the auction clearance rate indicates 20%.

Sydney median based on the properties that actually went to auction is $568K and not $578K.

sinner · 22 March 2009

Bill M said:
We have seen it all before, doom and gloom everywhere but the real estate prices just kept going up over time.

How can you reconcile this with London? High immigration, high demand, low supply. Their average house price is even a lower multiple of average income than Sydney!

All the reasons the bulls here are so confident. Yet they were not immune.

It appears that in the face of credit deflation, none of these pros mean anything at all.

Beej · 22 March 2009

nunthewiser said:
I own realestate.....
would i buy more now at present prices in current financial climates .......... NO
good luck to those that do tho .........
all sunshine and lollipops ......must be , i read it here

So would you SELL what you currently own and put in cash at < 3% before tax, pay rent instead because you think prices will fall?

What if you didn't own any property and had been waiting for 5 years, saving, noticing that prices of places you are interested in had been flat for several years and maybe even fallen, and your sums show you that at current interest rates it would be cheaper to own than to rent? Would you consider buying in the current climate then? Clearly many people answer yes to that question!

singlefished said:
Why are private sales included in the auction clearance figures you are quoting?

Adelaide sold nothing at auction in the last week according to the figures APM are reporting yet the auction clearance rate indicates 20%.

Sydney median based on the properties that actually went to auction is $568K and not $578K.

What are you on about? Just because a property sells prior to auction? If property was advertised as being available for public auction and therefore if it sells it is included in the reported sales. Anyway you can argue all you like but that's the way auction clearance rates have always been determined and reported.

sinner said:
How can you reconcile this with London? High immigration, high demand, low supply. Their average house price is even a lower multiple of average income than Sydney!

All the reasons the bulls here are so confident. Yet they were not immune.

Yet it appears that in the face of credit deflation, none of these pros mean anything at all.

You are seriously trying to argue that London property is cheaper than Sydney???

Beej

kincella · 22 March 2009

just wonder...RE Agents usually add on xxxxx of dollars to your asking price, they test the market...or humour you for awhile...as the seller. the RE A usually wants a quick sale, so after no one turns up for the first open house, they will work on you until you bring the price down...
auctions only work in a hot market...I dont see it is a problem to not auction..its not a hot market imo...
but then I have not been to any auctions or inspections recently....
understood it is a buyers market.....

and yes I have noticed an increase in listings lately.....obviously to take advantage of the fhb's...
burb I watch weekly...had 150 houses for sale and 35 of those were under offer....
oh and the banks are running behind with applications...taking a month where it used to be about a week

sinner · 22 March 2009

Beej said:
You are seriously trying to argue that London property is cheaper than Sydney???
Beej

Errr what? I never said cheaper? Only highlighted that their average house price is a lesser multiple of their average income than the same ratio for Aus.

All I am pointing out is that the fundamentals of London house prices are at least somewhat similar to those of Sydney but this did not save London house prices anymore than it will save ours.

The bulls who claim property price will only go up are now either betting on steady inflation or steady employment by a majority of the population. Because we are no longer going to have the crazy speculative bids fueled by easy credit.

Frankly, I have no issues with betting on employment (bet however you like), but I wouldn't do this with an asset class that requires my own employment to remain solvent!

Largesse · 22 March 2009

sinner said:
Errr what? I never said cheaper? Only highlighted that their average house price is a lesser multiple of their average income than the same ratio for Aus.

All I am pointing out is that the fundamentals of London house prices are at least somewhat similar to those of Sydney but this did not save London house prices anymore than it will save ours.

The bulls who claim property price will only go up are now either betting on steady inflation or steady employment by a majority of the population. Because we are no longer going to have the crazy speculative bids fueled by easy credit.

Frankly, I have no issues with betting on employment (bet however you like), but I wouldn't do this with an asset class that requires my own employment to remain solvent!

Completely different macro environment at play in the UK compared to AUS.
Their economy is arguably further up **** creek then the USA.
They were highly leveraged to the financial services sector and excluding that, the UK just has a whole heap of aging uneconomical rustbelt industries.
The pound will continue to go lower and lower and the UK is a place I wouldn't want to be living in over the next decade

House prices to keep rising for years

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