House prices to keep rising for years

wayneL · 22 February 2008

tech/a said:
Wayne.

Your thetre in the UK.

How then would you handle the situation with regard to identifying opportunity?
Or in your view will there not be opportunity in this sector for years.
If so what in your view would indicate opportunity in years to come?

As I said before, I'm not interested in development, not at this stage anyway. Perhaps a reno or two when the time is right... if I feel like it.

So opportunity would would be when prices are in line with historical vectors of value. In some instances, that is already incredibly close (Distress sales etc). The $64,000,000 question is the trough of the business cycle and approximately when that occurs. At the moment, we only just round the top turn here.

Looking at the macro-economic picture the end zone is still a long way off.

I think Crash Gordon and Alistair Daaaaaaaaaaahling will prop the economy and particularly the housing market desperately, in order to cling to power, so it may take some time.

On the other hand, it may crap itself sharpish, just have to see.

Like all value investors, I'll wait for the market to come to me. If it doesn't, time will catch up with the market. Same criteria in the end. I'm invoking the Buffet principle when it comes to property.

robots · 22 February 2008

wayneL said:
As I said before, I'm not interested in development, not at this stage anyway. Perhaps a reno or two "when the time" is right... if I feel like it.

So opportunity would would be "when prices are in line with historical vectors" of value. In some instances, that is already incredibly close (Distress sales etc). "The $64,000,000 question is the trough of the business cycle and approximately when that occurs." At the moment, we only just round the top turn here.

Looking at the macro-economic picture the "end zone is still a long way off."

I think Crash Gordon and Alistair Daaaaaaaaaaahling will prop the economy and particularly the housing market desperately, in order to cling to power, so it may take some time.

"On the other hand, it may crap itself sharpish, just have to see."

Like all value investors, "I'll wait for the market" to come to me. If it doesn't, time will catch up with the market. Same criteria in the end. I'm invoking the Buffet principle when it comes to property.

hello,

fascinating that,

I guess the audience allows many to continue going on with this sort of propaganda,

in the UK the BTL is being hit apparently, yet the media get some analyst who writes an article with as many if's, implode's, could's as I have highlighted and it is gospel

thankyou

robots

wayneL · 22 February 2008

robots said:
hello,

fascinating that,

I guess the audience allows many to continue going on with this sort of propaganda,

in the UK the BTL is being hit apparently, yet the media get some analyst who writes an article with as many if's, implode's, could's as I have highlighted and it is gospel

thankyou

robots

I don't understand your point. Do you know what it is?

Tom Ronalds · 22 February 2008

wayneL said:
Meanwhile, in the UK:

Britain’s housing market is a “house of cards” that is set to implode after years of reckless mortgage lending, chronic oversupply of new flats and widespread fraud, a leading analyst said yesterday.

This is not limited to Britain - it's the same story here, just with a bit of a delay:

http://tinyurl.com/2lzalv

Economic struggles producing more fraud: KPMG

Posted Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:44pm AEDT

Experts from accounting giant KPMG say all areas of business can expect to be touched by rising levels of fraud as economic growth in Australia starts to slow.

KPMG's head of financial services, Andries Terblanche, says the first signs are already emerging that rising interest rates and increased costs of living are triggering a greater incidence of fraud.

"Typically when there's an economic down-cycle that would certainly affect the banks," he said.

"It would also affect other financial institutions, but the evidence suggests that it's not contained to financial services.

"Indeed, it hits all facets of economic enterprise."

And this is just early days...

Tom R.

gfresh · 23 February 2008

Well this has even made world news: http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSSYD20239620080222?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Is anybdy really "stunned" by such stories however? With some areas of property development being very competitive, and of course lucrative it's no wonder people will resort to such steps. I'm sure it goes on in every council in Australia to some degree to be honest

and the Gold Coast..need I say more

theasxgorilla · 23 February 2008

gfresh said:
and the Gold Coast..need I say more

You could say what makes you think it was the Gold Coast...I saw that it was Woolongong, and thats quite a distance away.

ASX.G

tech/a · 23 February 2008

Like all value investors, "I'll wait for the market" to come to me. If it doesn't, time will catch up with the market. Same criteria in the end. I'm invoking the Buffet principle when it comes to property.

Thats my whole point recognition of value.When has it come to you?

Wayne I see no other "valuation" here but gut feel.
Numerous "Conditions" have been suggested as leading indicators to a property top but other than historical vectors (Which are?,I mean the values and vectors of what?),Trough of the business cycle--which I doubt we will see more so a drifting----there precious little leading indicators suggested.

wayneL · 23 February 2008

tech/a said:
Thats my whole point recognition of value.When has it come to you?

Wayne I see no other "valuation" here but gut feel.
Numerous "Conditions" have been suggested as leading indicators to a property top but other than historical vectors (Which are?,I mean the values and vectors of what?),Trough of the business cycle--which I doubt we will see more so a drifting----there precious little leading indicators suggested.

I purposefully left out my criteria for value, to avoid argument over them. but rest assured, they are based on hard numbers. Yes, getting the trough of the business cycle is guesswork, but that is secondary anyway, and I have worked myself into a position at the coalface. I'm fairly confident of being a bit ahead of the curve.

First and foremost is that the numbers work for what I want to achieve.

Stay tuned for avatar changes.

Uncle Festivus · 23 February 2008

tech/a said:
Thats my whole point recognition of value.When has it come to you?

Wayne I see no other "valuation" here but gut feel.
Numerous "Conditions" have been suggested as leading indicators to a property top but other than historical vectors (Which are?,I mean the values and vectors of what?),Trough of the business cycle--which I doubt we will see more so a drifting----there precious little leading indicators suggested.

I would think interest rates (going up) & the housing affordability stats (going down) would be the most indicative of cycle tops and future direction? I'm not sure - are they factors for you?

Each interest rate rise takes out another potential group of home owners from the market, so the available pool of demand shrinks? They then become renters and all that entails eg the rental squeeze in progress.

You would have to think then that it's getting closer to the pointy end of the un-affordability triangle. (with the base of the triangle as potential purchasers and y scale unaffordability ie as rates rise your market diminishes)

Yes, interest rates will be the harbinger of the future of housing, combined with the rising $AU for housing demand for export industry/commodity communities eg Perth.

numbercruncher · 23 February 2008

As I mentioned in an earlier post, loads of RE coming to market, now confirmed, can only mean RE boom times ?

QUEENSLAND'S buoyant housing market is teetering on the edge of a downturn with new figures revealing a 38 per cent jump in homes for sale.

Home owners have become jittery about future market conditions, says Tim Lawless of RP Data who collated the figures.

In Brisbane the results are magnified with a 62 per cent leap in new listings.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23259926-952,00.html

Be interesting to see over the next 12 months with possible 1pc rise in Interest rates.

RE bulls will probably want to be encouraging Union thugs to secure substantial pay rises for the peoples

tech/a · 23 February 2008

Or if you selected these from the article you'd have a completely different slant.

It currently takes about 19 days to sell a house in Queensland and sellers are getting about 5.4 per cent below the original asking price, compared with 5.2 per cent the previous year.

While house prices are not expected to drop, the surge of properties on the market is expected to slow price growth.

"There has been a big pick-up (in demand) for finished product," she said.

Diana Howes, managing director of Resolution Research and Marketing Solutions, said the figures were high because consumer sentiment was so strong.

Century 21 Westside principal Gerard Baden-Clay said the sudden jump in listings could be because new developments used to be advertised in a single listing, but now it was common to see developments advertised on a lot-by-lot basis.

GreatPig · 23 February 2008

Things not looking too hot in NZ at the moment either.

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/newsdetail1.asp?storyID=132201

GP

wayneL · 23 February 2008

tech/a said:
Or if you selected these from the article you'd have a completely different slant.

Haha! We get the same cognitively dissonant article in the UK all the time:

Jupiter to Crash into London on Sunday Night.
But property expert Krusty Allsnot says this will be good for house prices, adding to the current undersupply of housing. "We're advising people to secure property immediately to capitalize on the coming bonanza".

robots · 23 February 2008

hello,

anybody go to any auctions today?

thankyou

robots

numbercruncher · 23 February 2008

robots said:
hello,

anybody go to any auctions today?

thankyou

robots

Hello

Why would anyone go to a boring RE auctions on a Hot Saturday when many sexy alternatives are in abundance ?

Did you have a good day at the Auctions Robi ? I slurped pure Blondes around the pool, was even a RE bull there, telling us tales of the days gone by

robots · 24 February 2008

hello,

73% clearance rate for melb yesterday, yes yes thankyou

the huge no. of prop coming on gave many buyers a chance to look around, fair priced prop still got snapped up,

i think many sellers will halt putting RE on the market for a while and wait until winter,

i went to one auction in Mornington for a parcel of land (412sqM), opened at 400k by re, no bids then put in vendor bid of 450k, passed in, huge miss calculation of land price by vendor

thankyou

robots

numbercruncher · 24 February 2008

*hangover day*

So Robots, how do you get these clearance rates the next morning after auctions ? Is that for the entire Melbourne ?

robots · 24 February 2008

hello,

i get them,

that is for all auctions listed to take place on the day,

thankyou

robots

numbercruncher · 24 February 2008

Well this is what this mornings SMH has to say ....

Melbourne's property boom cools off

Melbourne's rampaging property boom has cooled after many years of soaring prices, with a sign that auctions are now failing to fire.

The Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) has told Fairfax newspapers the property market had peaked and prices were easing.

And some real estate agents have reported clearance rates of less than 60 per cent.

Last year, clearance rates regularly topped 80 per cent.

And auctions in outlying suburbs were especially quiet on Saturday.

Even "bargain" homes offered at foreclosure auctions have failed to sell.

The agents are blaming the Reserve Bank's recent warning of a predicted wave of interest rate rises.

REIV chief Enzo Raimondo said the high capital growth was "over for this year".

"I've spoken to a lot of agents in the past few days and they are saying that things are starting to slow," he said.

http://news.smh.com.au/melbournes-property-boom-cools-off/20080224-1u9b.html

Seems even people working in the Industry are running out of Spin to Spin !

tech/a · 24 February 2008

71% Clearance rate in Adelaide.

http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/adelaide.pdf

House prices to keep rising for years

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

robots

hello

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Tom Ronalds

gfresh

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Uncle Festivus

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

GreatPig

Pigs In Space

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

robots

hello

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

robots

hello

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

robots

hello

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

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