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Positive Expectancy
- Joined
- 24 September 2008
- Posts
- 3,588
- Reactions
- 133
You can only kick a can down the road for so long......I give it 6 weeks at most till they are finally consigned to an 'orderly' default?
The real problem is oil - they simply won't have funds to buy fuel, and nobody will extend them any more credit to buy any. The country will literally come to a physical stop as well as a financial freeze. Classic negative contagion.......Italy is next........so the market is saying....?
The Greeks should have played hardball, causing the financial markets to fall while they secretly buy up the most highly leveraged derivative products on their own debt.
They then announce that the austerity plans are accepted by parliment, causing the market to stage a relief rally.
They then announce that, thanks to the relief rally, half of their debt problems have been solved by the profits they've made on those instruments.
The market hears that news and rally harder, and Greek has enough profits to pay back all the debt.
The market rally harder yet, and Greek decides to paint their streets gold, buy a few German banks and construct one man-made island for each Greek citizen... with new debt.
Banks that are on the hook must be screaming for time to try and recapitalize so that they can take the hit when it comes hence the kicking the can down the road so long,
Lending another $100 bil plus to some one who can never repay also moves the problem onto the next election cycle for some one else to face the music.
Longer it goes the more it looks nasty IMHO.
Greece is "saved" by pro-austerity parties? Lollipops sans sunshine?
Leading to perhaps worse street riots and yet another "early election" after a few more months of failed "fiscal austerity" with spiralling debt??
Oh well. Saved for now..... let the market Boom commence...
Europe's job market is a historic disaster.
The EU unemployment rate set a new all-time high of 12.2 percent, according to today's estimates. But it's the youth unemployment crisis that's truly terrifying. In Spain, unemployment surged past 56 percent, and Greece now leads the rich world with an astonishing 62.5 percent of its youth workforce out of a job (graph via James Plunket).
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