Good Trades, Bad Trades: A crude manual system

[frugal.rock]

Hasn't been a great week all round, until today.
Came down with covid Tuesday. ?
However, today the best percentage day for this portfolio for quite a while, covid symptoms diminishing.
Hopefully gains can be held. I don't think I've traded this week.
?

 

[frugal.rock]

Belated end of week.
Not sure how they work things out, but it seems to lack consistency. (By my approximations, am up ~1% for the week)

 

[frugal.rock]

Last week's results.
2nd week of covid, so wasn't interested in trading.
Still haven't got my taste back properly and seem to have a permanently partially blocked snoz... ?



On the YTD chart, when equity hit the 10% high, I reduced the portfolio by around 1/3.
On the next high I reduced it down again to around 50% of original. So, the hits weren't anywhere as near as hard as they could've been.

Looking back at some historic trading results, it's pretty clear that a good old "clear the decks" is/can be in order, when at equity highs. A take profit reset.
Probably not a common thought for the upside....

 

[frugal.rock]

Market = XJO = SP ASX200
The week.



Year to date.
Σ 82,513.56

 

[frugal.rock]

Am I on "peak stupid" or somewhere on the "slope of enlightenment"?
Have definitely experienced the "valley of despair", but I think the slopes of peak stupid/enlightenment and the valley are possibly confusing ??

Some links for me to get back to again.

Add a h to the start of the first link...

ttps://michaelgearon.medium.com/cognitive-biases-dunning-kruger-effect-ea1419038eb6

3 Cognitive Biases That Alter Your Thinking

As much as you may not notice them, biases are ingrained into our decision making from birth. Biases are one of the more interesting phenomena of evolved mental behavior.

www.pickthebrain.com

 

[Ann]

Am I on "peak stupid" or somewhere on the "slope of enlightenment"?
Have definitely experienced the "valley of despair", but I think the slopes of peak stupid/enlightenment and the valley are possibly confusing ??

I am not sure I agree with the curve as far as my own confidence growth was concerned or how I felt at the times of improvement, mine was more a zig zag curve like trying to solve a multilayer puzzle. I am still treating it as a puzzle to be solved. I never over think puzzles, that is the trick.

However, taking the curve as it stands as it was obviously a researched response, I would say to anyone who is at the last level displayed on the curve perhaps their next step would be to simplify the complication. Identify why it has been made so complicated and pull away the rubble until you see the basics.

 

[frugal.rock]

Have found the brokers charts of the portfolio to be significantly different to my understanding.

Year to date.
Σ 82,513.56

Current Σ $100,368.18
(-$13,000 cash added)

From last posted YTD chart and actual portfolio value figure (above), the portfolio value has increased 5.88% in real terms, where if I use the brokers YTD chart, it shows an increase of 8.41% for this same fortnight.
I have inputted $13k cash into the portfolio in the same period.

As a result, I won't be posting anymore broker supplied "charts".
Will use the 1st April figure
( 82,513.56 ) from now, and calculating manually.
Will probably end this thread here, unless anyone is really keen to see further results down the road.
Hope all have a good Easter break.

 

[frugal.rock]

Last post here. The apathy club has disbanded due to lack of interest.

Have worked out the broker is probably using the original portfolio funding base figure of approx $60k, from my calcs.
Was funded in July 2020.
Broker YTD chart matches my understanding now (or vice versa) and is correct, when using the old base figure...
FWIW, I consider my results ordinary and know I can do better with; a little more effort, an auto scanner and more research on forum on posts by the head honchos.
Life does have a bad habit of throwing spanners though.
Peace out. ?

 

[divs4ever]

BUT BUT you are still beating the market

i think you have a problem most traders have ( ' i am sure i can do better ' )

but sure tweak away , maybe better is possible

good luck

 

[peter2]

I agree with divs a little here. The idea that we can do better is only a wish until we actually start monitoring our behaviour so we can see the aspects that need to improve. Monitoring the end result, equity curves, doesn't give us the details that we really need.

I know it's hard to look for our mistakes. Not buying when we should, not selling when we should etc. No one is going to check our work in the trading business. We have to do it ourselves if we really want to do better.

@frugal.rock even though I don't have much evidence I think your trading has improved during the past year. The market doesn't provide consistent results. Sometimes we're on the money and others it's leaving us behind. It'll all work out well in the end if we're consistently applying our trade.

 

[divs4ever]

as a person who doesn't really trade ( my system is cruder than yours , i betchya )

one flaw i see , is trying to be 'good' ( great ) all the time ( i quickly worked out I couldn't make a steady income from trading )

so some of my picks go up big-time sometimes in the first year , sometimes in a few years , or some like GRR took over 10 years

now one concept of proper trading ( for income ) is to take some profit off the table ( to pay for bills , etc. ) ( and trying to cut short the losing runs )

it has got to be hard work , dipping into the winnings regularly just to keep the food coming in , compared to the fund managers who shows you what they can do when all the money is left on the table for one ( or five or ten ) year

good luck , any sophisticated trading scheme is not for me ( my internet is too slow/unreliable for a starter )

 

[frugal.rock]

Monitoring the end result, equity curves, doesn't give us the details that we really need.

The history of my working life was always one of "the end result".
That was all that mattered to the client. That was all they saw and cared about. Pegs and stakes in nicely, vertical and not mashed up. Nice legible writing on stakes etc. Thanks for coming.
The behind the scenes work stays that way and it's largely all hocus pocus "magic" to the client.

No one is going to check our work in the trading business. We have to do it ourselves if we really want to do better.

Checking my own work has been an ingrained "feature" from early in the career.

The market doesn't provide consistent results. Sometimes we're on the money and others it's leaving us behind. It'll all work out well in the end if we're consistently applying our trade.

And therein lies the beauty of it, in a nutshell.
Jigsaw puzzles bore me to death.
I enjoy the irregularity the market data throws at me.
If I ever get bored with it, I'd expect to be filthy rich by then.

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