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barrett

I enjoyed your buying logic.

I was concerned that your other logic used the phraseunanticipated ‘black swan’ event .

It is tantamount to saying an unanticipated unanticipated event, which is therefore anticipated, mathematically speaking.

Which is to some degree my point.

Much of gold's price is based on known events that are marketwise-bearish, particularly a deflating US dollar and impending recession.

Gold's present high price has re-factored in the increased probability of gloomy global markets and geopolitical instability.

Should the "known" (once) low probability events come to fruition, we have an expectation that gold will increase more rapidly than it has in recent years.

A black swan event could swing gold either way - sharply up or down.

From a theoretical construct the more likely outcome of a black swan event would actually be to crush gold's price.  That is because gold's historical price is largely predicated on it being in relatively short supply and difficult to find (apart from its intrinsic metalllic qualities).

So then, a black swan event is most likely to be one which gives the lie to gold's price base - an event such as a gold discovery that overnight renders the present mined quantum of gold pale into insignificance.

I shall therefore hold my thoughts on a black swan event in the context of gold, and prefer the increasingly more probable, less friendly, of events to deliver in spades.