Gold Price - Where is it heading?

The London gold fix, the benchmark used by miners, jewelers and central banks to value the metal, may have been manipulated for a decade by the banks setting it, researchers say.

Large price moves during the afternoon call were also overwhelmingly in the same direction: down. On days when the authors identified large price moves during the fix, they were downwards at least two-thirds of the time in six different years between 2004 and 2013. In 2010, large moves during the fix were negative 92 percent of the time, the authors found.

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notting said:

Tomorrow obviously down due to fears abating on Russia.
How much of the run was extended as that built up?
How much was it simply a gold thing on say, China buying.
Are they still interested at this level? That is the question.

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One thing I look at quite closely is the difference between the Shanghai price of gold and the spot price, and that for me is quite an important indicator of the appetite for gold in China.
What we’ve actually seen all throughout this move up in gold, before we had the sell off, was that spread was compressing, which to me suggests that the demand in China is slowing, and we have certainly see that through our physical volumes as well.
Volatility in China’s currency has made gold more expensive to import, with the yuan depreciating about 2.5 per cent against the US dollar this year.
Also what we have seen is a lot of the demand was front-loaded to last year. In 2013 there were record imports and record consumption of physical gold, and what happened to price last year really brought forward a lot of demand.
I can’t overemphasise the importance of looking at what demand in China is doing. At the moment I just don’t see them stepping into the market and supporting it, even at prices below $US1300 which is where we are now.
Markets will always overshoot, so I do see a bit of a risk of a further correction to $US1280 and even below before we see the Chinese come in and support the market.

ANZ is relatively bullish about the mid-term outlook for price of gold, forecasting it to rise to $US1450 an ounce by the end of the year.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...-stop-us93c-20140328-35mgq.html#ixzz2xE584EyY

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Uncle Festivus said:

No posts in here for 5 weeks?

Could be the last great buying opportunity in $AU terms?

From an exchange rate point of view you would have to wonder if the $AU is capped at .94 based purely on the deteriorating conditions in China, so would limit any "currency cap" on the AU price of gold. Which would leave just the US price as the "positive surprise variable" as a falling $AU will support the AU price?

The fact that both prices appear to be 'basing' around these levels and the fact that risk-on alternatives are peaking at records (and more importantly not backed by fundamentals) then gold is primed for another break out as the risk-off trade, and probably when the sheeples least expect it and the experts have yet again written it's obituary?

I've been topping up every time it trades in this range with 5oz's.........interesting times indeed.....

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notting said:

So it's brocken down out of that triangle as Ukraine kills 50 Russian covert soldiers and takes back it's airport. Whilst the press is saying Russia and Ukraine are all good. As usual not alot of sense being made anywhere in this stupid bull market.

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