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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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prawn_86 said:
I still want to know where i can get over the 'paper' price, for my physical gold. Can you help?
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Ebay is the best bet as dealers are working from spot so you are mad to part with it at the moment. My dealer says it is all bad and that the price will continue to fall more so urges me to sell. But when I try to buy from him he always has some excuse, and Friday when I lined him up and then called the shop was shut. Maybe they are trying to accumulate against the mugs selling.

A little patience and you may be glad you held on though. However I am a mug too, often wrong and not qualified to give advice.
 
sinner said:
In fact what I would like to see is the opposite, I would like the price of physical gold to be truly set free. I think this process is occurring right now.
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sinner said:
Obviously the "economic motivation" here is to buy a long term "store of value" which can be hoarded without impacting the economy, is not a claim on someones future cashflows, is scarce and is liquid.
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No matter how I tried to keep an open mind, I simply cannot accept or understand the notion that there's value in gold indpendent of it's "price", except may be in a doomsday scenario. And if I was planning for a doomsday scenario, I'd be buying food and weapons before gold...

Thanks sinner for all your responses, but I am no closer to understanding how you reach your attitude towards gold. Let's just agree to disagree.
 
I'm sorry I can't articulate the idea well enough for you skc.

The simplest explanation I can think of is that gold is valued based on the flow of physical gold. This doesn't necessarily mean the price goes up when the flow goes down and vice versa, rather that marginal producers (in the modern economy this is basically Saudi and China) who buy gold care much more about the ability of their productivity to bid on gold than the specific amount of gold their productivity can bid on.

I know that I paste this link a lot and I also realise it's very long, but for me it was the 'a-ha' moment:

"It's the flow, stupid" http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/10/its-flow-stupid.html

"Flow Addendum" http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2010/10/flow-addendum.html

That's the best I can offer
 
explod said:
The problem with the charts above for gold is that the general public have not even heard of gold yet.

In fact, I read somewhere about three years back, that less than 0.5% of the investment community have been involved in this gold bubble so far.
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And of those who have been involved, even fewer have made a major commitment to it.

People put 50% or more of their portfolio into stocks or property without too much thought but it seems that where gold is concerned that figure tends to be a lot lower. Anecdotal evidence says that it's 5% or 10% of assets into gold for those few who are invested in it at all. That just doesn't sound like a bubble to me.
 
Too much temptation on gold is not good for any economy. If we analyse Indian economy we can get some idea about this. In advance I had some concern about nation of gold consumers and how it will affect the economy. Now number one gold consumer India has to face for the one of the biggest currency loss. Their currency fell 4.9 percent last month.

According to following link Jewellery sector In India agrees to stop selling gold bars and coins until India's trade balance improves. Gold has affected for their trade balance as well. This new development also will affect negatively to the gold market.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-bars-062520132

Gold Bars & Coin Sales Suspended by India's Jewellery Sector

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.
 
The old geo-political risk factor back in play with Portugal next on the chopping block. Oil back over $100. Greece needs a tad more, but what's a few $Billion here & there? Cyprus? What Cyprus? Egypt. Etc etc......riots.....

Computers making markets untradable?

Gold futures dropped $5 in one second Tuesday morning, demonstrating that the fast-moving computerized marketplace is not isolated to the traditional equity securities world.

Eric Hunsader, CEO of Nanex, a provider of real-time data to traders, noted that 700 trades in 1,000 gold future contracts of Gold for August Delivery GCQ3 drove the price of the futures security down from $1250 to $1245 in a second at 10:11:15 a.m.

Prices of the same gold futures contracts jumped $6 in a second at 3:01:50 a.m., also on trades in 1,000 gold future contracts, Hunsader added.

 
Don't know about all that but i'm ok to see it and CL going up at the moment
 
The Shanghai slumped but gold held steady and is now up 1.2%.
Previously as Goldstocks appeared to be bottoming Gold was coming down with them in unison with the fall of Shanghai.
Gold stocks fell today but Gold did not go with them as what happened last time the Shanga capitulated.
The saftey play on gold may be making a comeback.

Don't ask me why this makes sense to me.

Notables

 
I think we could have put in another significant low in the POG....

We've also met the consolidation target to the tick, and now broke the recent trend down...

Hmmmm....Looking for trades back to 1400, in valid below 1205.

CanOz
 
Apparently there is a 'great rotation' going on from bonds to equities? You would think there would be some damage from rates rising so fast over the last month or so for eg US 10yr has surged over 70%.

2 more months till the German elections so more of the same {insert market supporting rhetoric here} from the ECB, even while German industrial production takes a hit?

US GDP downgrade is old news - now looking at yet another second half recovery.....

One last great suck into equities no doubt as the only game left in town, while the media compound the 'gold is dead' theme continuously?

Patient buyers wait for the sellers to have their fill...nice bounce from 1208 to 1242....is this the base?
 
Uncle Festivus said:
One last great suck into equities no doubt as the only game left in town
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Problem is Uncle it's been "The final suck into equities" for a few years now according to yourself and your merry men

Maybe you are turning into a Bull...slowly but surely...and probably correctly over the longer term.
 
Porper said:
Problem is Uncle it's been "The final suck into equities" for a few years now according to yourself and your merry men

Maybe you are turning into a Bull...slowly but surely...and probably correctly over the longer term.
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I'll be a bull when it takes less than a dollar to make a dollar in GDP, all it is now is the afterglow of central bank debt financed bubbles. All it takes is time to resolve......

For at least the last 5 years as they try to 'wealth effect' the economy back to health the stock market has been the obvious place to manipulate, sorry, encourage everyone to place their hard earned. The problem is everyone is not earning anything to buy shares with - US markets have gone higher on lower volume and leveraged debt, again. It really is the last game in town, and when that runs it course the game is over. How long the game can keep going in spite of what looks now to be the beginning of a global recession, again, is anyones guess?

It's now been 5 years of this so called new bull market pricing in more than a recovery while expecting the fundamentals to play catch up?

Longer term? In the end they can't hide frrom their $Trillions in liabilities that will and are becoming due - health, pensions, interest debt etc etc

I closed my longs at the last peak - so I take it you are buying US equities at these levels?
 
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