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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

There was a 6.6 % drop in Feb. Flat March. April monthly report isn't out yet but we can be pretty safe to assume that OI greatly reduced from the daily data.

Look at the OI in Silver expanding into the lower price. What do you make of that? Someone is getting this very wrong by the looks of it! Which side?!
 
The interesting thing is that while the price of gold is falling the world is having gold shortages which hasnt been seen in a very long time..... Contradicting eh??

The day gold price reflects the physical movement and not the paper style we are seeing is when things will become more interesting.
 


Product shortages.... not gold shortages, the supply chain for these products is not huge so when demand swings up wildly they run dry for a while till they catchup again. It has happened before and will happen again.
 
I have been expecting this flag on the inverted flagpole to break downward. So far gold is looking a bit fragile tonight, perhaps tonight is the night?
 

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I have been expecting this flag on the inverted flagpole to break downward. So far gold is looking a bit fragile tonight, perhaps tonight is the night?

I "one-time framed" it down for the last three hours, not a buyer in site....wouldn't be surprised to see it crack tonight at all!

CanOz
 
I have been expecting this flag on the inverted flagpole to break downward. So far gold is looking a bit fragile tonight, perhaps tonight is the night?

Gold held on strongly and lifted back up onto the lower support line of the flag formation. If this continues, what is a bearish flag may well turn into a bullish rising channel. Now back to watching the bearish megaphone on Silver's chart!
 
Now taking a closer look at the long term chart I can see a very strong resistance line coming from May 2011 of $1474. This may be a very hard resistance to break through as it held from May to July 2011 with a number of attempts to get over the resistance of $1474.


Sell in May, go away! Looks like it!
 

Well that was all a load of crap! Up too late at night....it is a bloody support line and it held firm over May to July 2011 and remained solid in support after being tested twice. So I am still handing out $1474 as a potential overhead resistance line. Geez!
 
Keep it simple, the Dow is at highs, we are into May, profits will be taken as they go into summer in the US & the DOW should correct ~ 10%. The USDX still looks OK here, IMO it will make ~85. This all looks risk off into summer, I can't see gold or gold stocks rallying into the face of that.
 

Ann,

I have found that gold increasingly responds a particular driving currency that is not always the USD. This seems to make horizontal support/resistance secondary to sloping support/resistance lines (speed lines as I call them). The latter seems to better allow for the relative nature of the currency market. IMO you really need to look at Gold in Euro, Yen and the USD before sticking a peg in the ground.



Maybe so much BS but it works for the way I tend to draw lines these days
 

I also. Angled trendlines > support/resistance. NCM looks ready to begin a move up when the trendline breaks.
 

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Look at the OI in Silver expanding into the lower price. What do you make of that? Someone is getting this very wrong by the looks of it! Which side?!

Yeah its 30% higher than this time last year but from my read its the producers who have increased their short positions (don't tell explod though, facts and all!) against raising longs of hot money.

Seen this? Just found it I like it.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/cftc-tff/main.html
 
Oh! and as the old ratbag of ignorance there is another source I like "Goldtrends.com" and the newsletter today talks of thier take on support and resistance for the paper gold circus.

 
I'm slightly confised. I have a few ounces of gold, if i go to a store to sell them, are members here suggesting that the price i will be offered will not be a margin off the current spot (paper) price?? Or can i still get 1700 an ounce for my physical gold?
 

$1474 held strong even though POG pushed hard a number of times to break through, eventually appeared to give up and just flat lined it to the close. Included is a chart of last night's price action from Kitco.
 

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If there is such a place I would like to know ...
 

If i go to a store, not Ebay, will i be able to get a price that is not related to the current spot rate? I dont feel comfortable selling my gold on Ebay
 
$1474 held strong even though POG pushed hard a number of times to break through, eventually appeared to give up and just flat lined it to the close. Included is a chart of last night's price action from Kitco.

Might take it out this morning....into a measured move to 77 at the moment,,,
 
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