- Joined
- 16 February 2008
- Posts
- 2,906
- Reactions
- 2
I think a similar pattern I described played out on the SPI today, funnily enough.
Exactly.
And that daily above is all LHs and LLs after a long uptrend. From memory, most times I see that pattern, on most timeframes, it always ends up falling off a cliff.
The chart above shows overlapping waves and best count I can give it is A B C X A B now needs another low for C probably around $600 or so and then it might be time for a rally or if deflation really takes hold could go a lot lower imo
Also most of you seem bullish which is not good for a rally of any size
am not trying to say you are wrong just that when most people think something is going one way it usually goes the other
Technically, you could not get a more classic definition of a washout which is exhausting itself as both shrinking volume and collapsing open interest signal that this is NOT the beginning of a bear trend but rather a technical washout that is winding down. I especially like the fact that volume is so anemic – it indicates no particular enthusiasm for the downside but more of a general disgust type of trade. Every single technical analysis book that I have ever read over the years will tell the shorts to be very careful selling a market in which volume and open interest are falling off – you simply never know when the last long who is going to run has run – when they do, that is it and the shorts then lose since there is simply no one left to sell the market to. For now they are sitting pretty but I suspect many buyers are waiting in the wings and should this market move down to near the $730- $720 level in February, these will emerge and make their presence felt quite strongly. The risk/reward no longer favors the shorts at these levels. What do they have, maybe $60 on the downside at the absolute best?
Still, all things considered, even paper gold is holding very well compared to the carnage in the rest of the commodity markets. For instance, crude topped out near $150/ barrel. Today is dropped below $41. That is nearly a 73% price collapse. December corn hit $8.00 bushel this past summer. Today it broke below $3.00 – the first time in two years it has been below the $3.00 level. That is a price drop of 62%. Platinum peaked at over $2200/ounce earlier this year. Today it was trading at $790 – a drop of a “mere” 64%. Copper is 67% off its peak. Silver is down 56% off its best levels seen this year. Yet gold is only down 27% off its peak price. Even with all the paper selling at the Comex, gold has withstood the orgy of redemption related selling pretty doggone well. And we know that demand for the real deal, the actual yellow metal is phenomenal, paper games at the Comex notwithstanding.
What you say seems to follow the paper market place itself. The following excerpt from Don Denarchi.
February to March next year after the new US Pres. gets in is my view of the big action upside. Patience and a rest over the festive is the go for awhile.
In mid (northern) summer, we had a new entry on the table for the first time since Gold topped the $US 1000 level in March. On July 17, Gold rose to 103233 Yen. That was a new 2008 high for the metal in terms of the Japanese currency. Then the Fannie/Freddie bailout plan went to work. Three weeks ago, on October 8, with the announcement of co-ordinated interest rate cuts by SIX major world central banks (including the Fed), Gold hit new all time highs in terms of the Australian Dollar, the Euro and many other major world currencies. That situation was reversed with the onset of savage global deleveraging which is still going on. How much longer? Watch the US Dollar exchange rates. And watch US Treasury yields.
Hi mazzatelli. I'm pretty new to EW too.
Maybe I should have labled (1) as (a) and (2) as (b), as I am anticipating (for lack of other realistically foreseeable alternatives) an Expanded Flat for wave 3, consequently making the larger cycle a Diagonal Triangle where wave 4 would retrace most if not all of my anticaped wave 3 by late 2009 or 2010.
Of course, as I mentioned, if the latest low is a fifth wave down, we must be in the corrective abc now and ultimately headed lower still towards (I think roughly) mid 400's. I just can't imagine any circumstamce where that might happen, yet.
So, assuming that count isn't right it seems we're pretty much left with an Expanded Flat leading off the next leg 3... unless someone can enlighten us to another count alternative... or the ar*e falling right out of gold too in the near future.
Just goes to show that EW may not be for me
By applying counts I am forming a bias about what I want to see rather than what is on the chart.
Ahhh well, I would like your projections to happen...but the forecast deflation as mentioned by others might not let that come into fruitation
Keep at it we all get it wrong or the alternate count happens but when it lines up and your right you can se were to place stops and how far the wave is likely to carry. I still see things with my personal bias but EW lets me know quickly when I'm wrong usually. and unfortunately there often several ways to count it as it is happening particularly if it is a corrective move But its like when you hit a golf ball right when you do get it right
Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)
Anyone seen this EW Gold Update?
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1227596760.php
Of course, his wave counts could be wrong, but I couldn't imagine a world with gold price at $10k/oz. I'd rather not have that to happen because the world would be in a depressing state by then.
Looks like NCMs last few months too. Interesting juncture.Hi All,
Below is a snap of our Gold index the XDJ which needs no further comment.
Bankit
Another interesting article from Conard.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/109210-the-manipulation-of-gold-prices?source=article_sb_popular
This is a VERY GOOD READ. But I'm looking for a counter argument against his analysis.
Funny how naked ........... whatever is always blamed by the people in love with their own ideas for falls/manipulation. Was a very interesting experiment when shorting was banned on the ASX and we tanked some 30%.
No futures contract in the world in any instrument, commodities, FX, Equity, weather is actually backed by supply. They are a price discovery and hedging product.
GOLD BUGS GET OVER IT!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or start complaining about how the weather is manipulated by the naked insurance shorts:
One day you will take all the credit for promoting gold T H, cant wait till about March 09.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?