Gold Price - Where is it heading?

appreciate your points Explod! the cusp of a cliff, I like that. you are probably right, its the foreigners not the Fed are keeping the dollar up for as long as they can. but even if it was in the Fed's power, can they lower interest rates without causing massive inflation?

unless they come up with a solution to the monetary problems which would involve bypassing gold altogether ... some of them are plotting along these lines .... the eventual collapse of the dollar will give Gold a chance.

until then, all sorts of fluctuations ... supply/demand etc, but boomtown ... no!!!

why all this concern about gold anyway? answer: what else is there? take the Dow, it's down 10 points. with less than half an hour to go, would it be any surprise if it closes 200 pts up or 200 pts down? that's the sort of market its been the last few days.

explod said:

I think it is the other way around. It is the Comex (backed by the banks and financial industry) trying to bust the gold following. Money pays interest, trailing fees and commissions, gold does not. Gold has its own value which cannot be diluted in the long term, money loses value as they print more. As the financial system is currently structured, gold is the enemy so expect a fight for awhile till the finacial system falls all the way over. And by the lack of any change coming out of the G20 at the weekend it is going to happen soon.

Click to expand...

So maybe we are talking about different rumours then? Why would the COMEX crew want to ruin their great business of printing money for gold they don't have? How would they do it anyway? It's not like they can demand delivery on their own paper...

I was under the impression that several large entities (Russia amongst others) were extremely unhappy about the gold price manipulation and had a mind to demand delivery on their entire holdings in Dec, knowing very well COMEX could not possibly deliver, thereby not only busting the COMEX but re-valuing their physical gold reserves to make up for their huge (and still plumetting) losses elsewhere.

Barrick gold rumoured to be in a similar position...

EURJPY is a semaphore for the global credit market in general.. and the restoration (at least partially) of these global credit flows in my view is needed for the gold bull market to resume.

EURJPY looks as though it may be breaking out here - if confirmed I think that would be very bullish indeed for gold. It should also be bullish for stocks at least in the short term

Someone somewhere is looking for a very big load................

Hi,

I have person who is interested in buying physical gold 1 tonne from bank to bank transfer.
Anybody has such offers mail me at air2885@yahoo.co.in

Thanks & Best Regards,
Ravi


arco

arco said:

Someone somewhere is looking for a very big load................

Hi,

I have person who is interested in buying physical gold 1 tonne from bank to bank transfer.
Anybody has such offers mail me at air2885@yahoo.co.in

Thanks & Best Regards,
Ravi


arco

Click to expand...

Arco if they have the cash you can pick up any amounts (but you need the cash and as the quantity is sufficient).

If you havent noticed Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia & China have all started to stockpile much more gold (good this be a signal for something????)

With markets as they are Gold appears to be the only port left in the storm, thanks to the weak AUD. Price in US$'s may not be great, but are there many metals and commodities doing better?

Ageo said:

Arco if they have the cash you can pick up any amounts (but you need the cash and as the quantity is sufficient).

If you havent noticed Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia & China have all started to stockpile much more gold (good this be a signal for something????)

Click to expand...

Hi Ageo
Presuming this is probably what you are referring to...............

Our oil-rich friends in the Middle East are scared. How do I know?

Because they are buying gold like crazy!

First, we got the news that Saudi investors spent $3.47 BILLION on gold in a recent two-week period. On a ratio-to-GDP basis, that’s like investors in the U.S. spending $131 BILLION.

Why are they doing this? The only explanation I’ve heard is that the Saudis are turning to gold as a safe haven in the midst of the global financial crisis. And since the financial crisis kicked into high gear in August … something must be scaring them quite a bit more right now.

Second, Reuters reports that Iran is converting some of its foreign currency reserves to gold. Iran has $120 billion in foreign currency reserves … there’s no details on just how much was shoveled into the yellow metal.
Gold dealers in Dubai reported running low on gold during the recent Indian holiday, the Festival of Lights, a traditional time for Indians to buy gold.
Gold dealers in Dubai reported running low on gold during the recent Indian holiday, the Festival of Lights, a traditional time for Indians to buy gold.

Third, gold dealers in Dubai reported running low on gold during the recent Indian holiday, the Festival of Lights, a traditional time for Indians to buy gold. More than 50% of the population of Dubai originally comes from India. And about 20% of the world’s gold is traded in Dubai.

The world is in the grip of economic hard times ”” over 40 countries are officially in a recession. Japan just joined that unhappy club. And the euro-zone nations are already there. We also know that the forces moving the market now seem to be deflationary, not inflationary. That means the value of the U.S. dollar is going up, and the price of gold is trending lower.

But could our friends in the Middle East be thinking beyond the current deflationary spiral? Gold is traditionally a hedge against calamity. So I ask again, what are the oil sheiks afraid of?

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/are-oil-rich-sheiks-being-scared-into-gold-6-28144

barrett said:

EURJPY looks as though it may be breaking out here - if confirmed I think that would be very bullish indeed for gold. It should also be bullish for stocks at least in the short term....

Click to expand...

Forgot to say it would also be a bearish sign for assets vs cash if it breaks to the downside.. I think it's important either way what happens to it. As EURJPY goes, so go the capital/credit markets.

Is it just me or does everyone feel like something big is going to happen in the next couple of days. I think gold could move either up or down big time! There's massive support at $720. Someones accumulating some gold. Could this be the bottom of a massive rally? Or will it break through $720. And go sub $700? I have no idea what will happen.

Its quite interesting that all the markets are at key pivotal points right now.

DOW 8000
EUR/USD $1.25
Gold $735

Coincidence? I think not!!!!

Weekly Gold chart,

The trend is dead but is the bull? some say no some say yes. I sit on the yes side of the fence. I am a USD bull right now.

support on the 38.2 good sign as leads to tell us it's a fast trend. I think gold is due for a rally right now. USD due for a decent pull back.

I like 800-850 on spot but i then think it will continue south to the 50% and trend line at 600 -650.

if gold beats the trend line or makes it to the high 800s to 900 then forms a higher low that will change the game plan!

Short term Rally overall bear market, these are just ideas on what i see on the chart

Cheers

We have an earlier break upwards this evening and more than has been the case for awhile. With the gold price continuing to hang on in the face of falling markets I feel a big disconnect will attract considerable attention.

Could be an interesting period overnight.

explod said:

We have an earlier break upwards this evening and more than has been the case for awhile. With the gold price continuing to hang on in the face of falling markets I feel a big disconnect will attract considerable attention.

Could be an interesting period overnight.

Click to expand...

That's exactly what I'm thinking.

Could be an almighty fake out however.

If we are deflating, I'm yet to be convinced it is bullish for gold. So... 50/50 call but something tradeable either way none the less.

chops_a_must said:

That's exactly what I'm thinking.

Could be an almighty fake out however.

If we are deflating, I'm yet to be convinced it is bullish for gold. So... 50/50 call but something tradeable either way none the less.

Click to expand...

The scale of the changes taking place are global and on a scale never experienced before in history. The economic outlooks or views, if you like, are very many which present considerable conundrums. Some schools are saying we have inflation due to rising prices in food, others deflation from falling oil prices. I have my own view but would be keen to discuss your take Chops on what you define as deflation in the context here as it may relate to gold?

explod said:

The scale of the changes taking place are global and on a scale never experienced before in history. The economic outlooks or views, if you like, are very many which present considerable conundrums. Some schools are saying we have inflation due to rising prices in food, others deflation from falling oil prices. I have my own view but would be keen to discuss your take Chops on what you define as deflation in the context here as it may relate to gold?

Click to expand...

I believe this sums it up:

I think everything at the moment is pointing to a prolonged and deep deflationary recession/depression ... which makes me think that the complete opposite may actually be what we get. : All we need is for Bernanke to find a much bigger helicopter ... maybe a few chinooks will do the trick.

If US productivity falls too much they won't be able to fund essential budget items alongside their debt commitments. What happens then ... surely they will go to the printing presses rather than default.

And another question ... what exactly is the USD rising against ... and how does relativity theory come into it? If I drop a Euro, a Deutchmark, a Pound, a Dollar and a Yen out of a plane some will fall slower than the others but they're still all going to hit the ground eventually.

Just watched the newstopia thing chops posted ... that does pretty much sum it up too doesn't it.

cuttlefish said:

Just watched the newstopia thing chops posted ... that does pretty much sum it up too doesn't it.

Click to expand...

Not able to run utube on my speed so will have to sit out till I get a clearer answer. However reading between the lines, few economists, even those who predicted the current play are able to say where to now and what will occur. All I know is that in the longer term, gold has been going up whilst the markets are going the other way. It is preserving my stake at the moment.

By Chris Flood , Financial Times, 19 Nov 2008
Sales of gold coins and bars reached their highest levels for more than a decade in the third quarter while gold exchange traded funds saw record inflows as investors sought a safe haven from the crisis in financial markets following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank.

The enormity of that rush into the gold market in the third quarter was revealed by the World Gold Council in its latest Gold Demand Trends report, published on Wednesday.

The industry sponsored WGC said consumers spent more than $6.5bn in buying 232.1 tonnes of gold coins and bars in the third quarter of 2008, an increase of 121 per cent in volume terms over the same period a year ago, and the strongest three-month period since the mid 1990s.

The WGC's report provides confirmation of previously anecdotal evidence of record investor interest.

The third quarter saw media reports that mints around the world had run out of gold coins as Lehman's collapse sparked concerns among investors about the health of the world's financial system.

However, the WGC's data indicates that retail investment interest in gold has been increasing steadily over the past year.

In the first three-quarters of this year, net retail investment in coins and bars reached 443.6 tonnes, 10 per cent more than all of 2007.

Germany and Switzerland experienced a surge in demand for coins and bars in the third quarter with net retail investment of 19 tonnes and 21 tonnes respectively, up 533 per cent and 500 per cent compared with the same period a year ago.

In Europe, coins and bar sales in the third quarter alone reached 51 tonnes, exceeding each annual total for retail investment demand during the entire 18 ½ years of available data.

Meanwhile, gold Exchange Traded Funds also saw record buying interest with inflows of 150 tonnes in the third quarter, up 8 per cent over the same period last year, with investors spending more than $4.2bn accumulating holdings in ETFs.

Lehman's implosion in September led to a jump in ETF inflows, which surged by an unprecedented 100 tonnes in just five consecutive trading days.

Strong growth was also seen in the jewellery sector where demand reached 647.6 tonnes in the third quarter, up 8 per cent compared with the same period last year, and taking spending to $18.2bn.

India, the world's largest jewellery market saw demand reach 178.5 tonnes up 29 per cent compared with the same period last year as consumers rushed to take advantage of lower prices ahead of the Diwali festival in October.

Total identifiable gold demand (investment, jewellery, industrial and dental) reached 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, up 18 per cent compared with the same period last year. in value terms, this represented spending of $31.8bn, a record, and an increase of 51 per cent compared with the third quarter of last year.

The WGC said strong demand for gold coins, bars and ETFs had continued into the fourth quarter but cautioned that this was being offset by ongoing weakness in jewellery markets in the US and UK.

Just look at the physical market in Aus right now. Sovs on eBay are going for $300+, want gold "gift" bars from Perth Mint $750 per 10g (with the majority of other stock showing sold out)...I shudder to think of those holding ZAUWBA or unallocated PMG gold certs who might try and execute those warrants for physical delivery, who knows what the delay could be...if you run these numbers we are talking $2250/oz

All the bullion bars on ebay are trading at spot RIGHT now, 1-5 days before auction close (any ebayer will tell you this means plenty more room for the end price to rise).

All the physical silver I can see online is also trading at 2-4x spot price...not due to excessive expectations from the buyers, high demand is driving this price up...

Whoever said they are picking stuff up at spot, please let us know how you are doing this!

The International Energy Agency forecast oil prices reaching $200 in 2030, I think it is conservative and oil prices could spike beyond that level much earlier.
Gold will enjoy a surge too, though I don't know by how much.

Even if gold is not performing well now, I don't see myself giving up gold to chase the US dollar, or any fiat currency.