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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

That reminds me, Soros put on a long gold, short oil spread trade in July at $138 just after the oil peak. Just looking at UF's chart, that would have still worked out pretty well even through all this.
 

I agree, so does Jim Sinclair:-

D
 

You left some important choices out there...

Inflation, deflation, people are missing the point here. If that much capital has been destroyed, it's really irrelevant what the economic conditions are, because if no-one can buy, the price isn't going to do anything.
 

If the plan works we get inflation, if it doesn't we/they get currency wipeout? Deflation a sideshow act?

But for those who still have money, where do they put it, assuming they can even get their hands on physical cash?

Let's get inside the head of an (still rich?) American - I've just sold all my foreign shares/assets, brought the proceeds back to the USA by buying dollars, and am looking to put it......T-Bonds (negative return)?.......real estate (negative return)?.....in a bank (negative return)? Which bank? How much does the government guarantee my deposit? Which bank will fold next?

When they realise even government treasuries/bonds are not that safe either, what have you got left - it a war of asset attrition & currency vaporisation - possibly the end of the worlds default currency?

PS up till recently, the net interest on the USA's investments abroad have comfortably covered their interest expense, despite what even some gold bugs would have you believe. But, if this repatriation of funds (if it is that, not official meddling?) as shown by the rise in the US DX is genuine and consistent then they can say goodbye to one of their key weapons in the overall debt equation - interest in say Oz at 6% back to US interest of 1.75% - so that their debt becomes a very real problem afterall?
 

I think you're on the right track with where the money flows uncle.

The monthly USDX seems to suggest a turnaround is immement.

Interesting that the gap up yesterday didn't carry through and stopped short of where I think the wave ii is and came back to the bollinger band.

The EUR/USD seems to have wave B covering slightly more than equal wave A in the correction on the daily to make wave iv on the monthly , supporting the notion of a turnaround.

Of interest also the AUD/USD gapped down from .77 quite a bit also supporting a decline of the USD and the AUD back to .77ish.

The logical interpretation of a falling USD as in the carry trade redemptions largely unwound and cash looking for better returns as uncle mentions, should to at least some extent be rising gold... shouldn't it!?
 

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Well if the US stock futures tonight are anything to go by the fear elevator might be taking a ride to the next floor. Be interesting to see what, if any, impact it has on the gold price and the USD.
 
Quite a nice rebound.

Covered and looking long.

One can never be certain but thought it would. The $US700 was an area of considerable resistance for about 12 months from the middle of 2006 and appears now as good support going forward.

As gold has again shown its hand against falling stock prices overnight, next week will be interesting.
 
We now need to see if the action can penetrate the cloud or if it will be repelled. On higher time frames the cloud is still a distant blur.

arco
 

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Quite a nice rebound.

Covered and looking long.

Say what, did the wind change direction Chopster .

So we have both gold & the US DX going in the same direction - which is the real deal? US interest rates at 1% next week?

Passed resistance at $730 now $735, with a thrust to $750 for good measure.

Aussie gold at $1180!

$50 daily flip flops now makes for making some serious money if you 'guess' the right entries/exits?

What will happen to gold shares when the markets are closed with limit downs in effect?

But it all seems a bit sureal when whole countries are declaring banktruptcy and the very real possibility of millions of people starving.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={A02D915A-E3DB-4E24-AAC7-E5F8EA18DA75}

Pakistan, radical muslims & nuclear weapons are not a safe combination!
Failed states with nukes - Russia is on the brink again!
Humans cursed propensity for greed & ideology, money & religion.
Consumerism at the expense of the environment.....I'd better stop there......meditate & stock up on seeds.....?
 
I prudently (or so I thought ) took a rather large position in a gold miner as a natural hedge against the upcoming financial storm that we are now in. Great how the best laid plans can backfire
And when you read this thread and articles like this one below I am left scratching my head

Extract from Pure Speculation The Australian Buiness Online

Gold still gleaming
OUR swooning over thermal coal does not mean any lessening of enthusiasm for gold at Pure Speculation. Yes, yes, we know gold's growth in value has not kept pace with other asset classes, the return on it at times is lousy -- and there are many other arguments against the yellow metal.

But who knows how many of those other asset classes will be worth anything when we enter the financial equivalent of a nuclear winter?

Last week we reported that the US Mint had suspended sales of the buffalo gold coins because demand had cleaned out all the stock. Well, now we read that Jeremy Charles, chairman of the London Bullion Market Association, is saying he has never seen in 33 years the demand for physical gold as great as it is right now. "The gold refineries cannot produce enough bars," he is reported as saying.

The association says it found wealthy investors paying $US25 an ounce over the spot price to get to the head of the queue. The Austrian Mint, meanwhile, is working at weekends to boost gold coin production due to heavy demand.

One commentator made an interesting point. The attraction was not so much the potential future value of the gold but the fact that it was a physical asset.

People are losing their trust in paper. There's so much bad paper around.
 
I believe 400 jobs are getting chopped at Telfer due to falling gold price
 
The association says it found wealthy investors paying $US25 an ounce over the spot price to get to the head of the queue. . [/I]

And the rest, 2 weeks ago you couldnt get it for less than $100 p/o over the spot. I agree thow that theres to much paper going around
 
And the rest, 2 weeks ago you couldnt get it for less than $100 p/o over the spot. I agree thow that theres to much paper going around

Spot on and its not working. Gold is and has always been the backstop to real money. The play money has had a little rally but we will see how long it keeps going. The following excerpt from the Privateer's weekly gold report (I have no connection but if you are serious it is excellent)
is food for thought / if you think about it:-

 
Makes you wonder why the mints are so keen to take all that bad paper in exchange for their good gold.

GP

Many pundits have been saying for some years that they are taking paper for gold that does not exist. When delivery time comes round they keep updating the paper contracts.

These pundits, so called doom and gloom sayers have been proven correct on the financial mess, why not on their take of gold contracts.

It is another reason why many of us keep harping that the only safe investment is to hold physical gold in your own safe keeping.
 


hehe interesting you mention this.......

i suggest you read this article which explains the US dollar and the gold price (very interesting indeed and agree's with price manipulation)

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2008/1023.html

Then watch this video but skip to 11min as they have John Embry which basically also states the central banks and bullion bankers are manipulating the gold paper market but he also believes when the time comes for people to take their gold after the lease is up there wont be enough to give (similar to a bank run). And then he believes the price of gold with then switch to track the physical price (which should be higher as demand increase and their is shortages of bullion).

http://watch.bnn.ca/tuesday/#clip104603


In a nutshell this sums up everything about paper (as long as its in existence it can and will always be manipulated).
 

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