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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Please do enlighten us further.

My point is that here we are standing on the edge of a complete and utter mess. I mean this is exactly what the Gold Bugs have been banging on about for years BUT...................


What is gold doing. Certainly not rewarding the gold bugs. its a dog.
 


My gold bullion went up $47 per ounce australian last night

I dont get the drift? Sure its due to currency fluctuations and all manner of other things, but better than having bank shares going down. And this is no gloat, just simple investing from my corner and take on it all.
 
Yeah, up 5% after down 30% good one . What's it gunna take to get to the $2000-$3000 target if it hasn't sparked interest with the current :fan . I mean really this is what the bugs have been waiting for is it not? They would have to be feeling a little disappointed that golds not tickling $1500 by now?
 
AUD gold price has held up better than most equities this year so I can see where explod is coming from - I wish I'd gone for physical gold instead of holding onto a lot of my gold stocks.

The US has lost the plot completely now - I can't see the USD charade continuing for too much longer. The Merrill thing seems completely nuts but it all seems pretty crazy and the printing machine is overheating big time with sparks flying out of it. Short term gold price volatility for sure - possibly down further as it gets pushed around - but when the music stops for the USD there's not a lot of gold chairs.
 

Have you actually bothered to read this thread or to study the historic long term fundamentals of gold. I stick very much to this and one other thread, I rarely drop into others and spout off on something that I know little about. I have made very good money, and continue to on trading gold stocks and accumulating physical since 2004. I try to know as much as I can about one item, the one I think is the best in a particular time frame and stay with it. I have been known to trade in and out of oil stocks but I think at times that is fairly straight forward also.

If you go back and check movements of gold against of the US fed and its dollar and so many other facets you may be surprised at what could be in store. If the fed drop thier wholesale rate in the next days just whatch gold a few days later. I will back gold to reach 1200 by the end of the year in this new climate. Small changes in the gold price have exponential effects on the bottom line of gold producers like LGL and NCM. Do some research and check it out Pal. And you will be welcome to share in the good news amidst the bad.
 
Oh god!!

Gold bugs are always making money aren't they??

When will one say what Cuttlefish freely does. That the obvious truth, Golds/silver has been a dog for some time and as the **** hits the fan, as per the bugs prediction, golds gone backwards.

And yes dude I know a bit about the movements in the gold market. Just because I disagree with your emotional commitment or point out the painful to you that don't mean I don't know where gold has been and where its currently sitting. And that is at a disappointing level considering its was going to be the one "safe" trade in all this mess.
 
Physical gold hasn't been a dog though. If an Australian based investor moved from equities to gold mid 07 they would be well ahead now. Even from Jan 08 a swap out of gold equities to physical gold would have had an investor well ahead of equities and not really down much compared to the market.

I expected gold stocks to come down with the market but also thought they would decouple to some extent and hold up better than the overall market given the strenght of the gold price - that hasn't proven to be the case and in hindsight I wish I'd moved more to cash and more to physical. (I did move some to cash and some into oil and coal for periods of time as well). Because wealth protection was a goal and systemic risk also present I wasn't keen on holding too much cash (and property wasn't a logical candidate either) so really it was gold equities or physical gold.

I'm still comfortable though that a lot of the gold equities are representing value and that the fundamentals for gold still point to good rises down the track.
 

As I have allude to in a previous post, a line has been drawn, so it's not what has transpired, but what is to come which will be the true test for gold advocates - there is no blood in the streets yet. If indeed the global financial system does resolve this mess through the interventionist measures then gold will be a relic, like the gold standard.

While the world decides, I remain in cash, gold and food production. The gold secular trend has not been broken? It has to decouple to be a currency in it's own right yet, not a commodity, and be free of intervention in it's counter trade currency ie the $USD.

When even cash is under threat, the alternatives (to gold) are dwindling by the day. What are the alternatives?
 

Hi TH,

If the bugs were right about the mess we're in now, and like you say, we're really just on the edge of it, we haven't seen it all yet by a long shot, if they've been right so far, when many others were optimists and were wrong, what makes you think they won't be right in the end?

When I just got on board very early 02, (gold was $270 when I entered) my thoughts on gold (and silver), were that it was the going to enter a similar cycle to the 70s (for some similar and some diff reasons) and possibly with a different ending also but thats a long story. Based on this ,what did I expect?

1. A multiyear bull at least 10 years, and most likely 15/16 in duration.

2. A lot of volatility, with gold capable of losing up to 50% (it dropped from $200 to $100 in the 70s after being up from $35.) and going sidewards or down for up to 2 years at a time (as in 74-76).

3. Take out the old high of $800, then $1500, then later another advance into mid to high 4 figures.

4. To ride a decadal cycle, from bottom to top, eg 70s commods/gold/oil, 80s Japan, stocks, 90s techs etc, can make someone very wealthy. Its not easy, very few people do it. I'd need to be prepared for gut wrenching drops without getting shaken out. It meant zero margin. I trade a portion but keep a large core position fully invested.

Yes gold and gold shares are way down now from highs, so are my holdings, but I am up multiple times from my entry point in 02, and see now as like just before the rise in 77-78.

Its not a 5min trading proposition. Its very different from your approach, but if it goes right, it'll be very rewarding, and though this correction is much steeper than I expected, its still consistent with what I expected in 02.

Don't know if this helps you understand some peoples position a bit better??
 
Looks like oil found at least short term support from the downtrend channel at 91.5...

QM daily
 

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Gold... or high country oysters.. who cares... if it trends... and sets up... trade it... after all... does a chart of gold look any different to a chart of high country oysters???

Cheers
............Kauri
 

Basically because apart from all the other issues facing the economy and markets, there is a bit of a cash crisis.

It seems to me that consumers and corporations alike are a bit short of spare/surplus cash... and even 'necessary' available cash for normal daily operations, which may help to explain the relatively low demand for commodities including gold and the current scurring around in the currencies seems to reflect people trying to maintain the best value they can in cash in the short term.

While gold bullion may still a good store of wealth... people and corporations need cash for their day to day needs. Until those day to day requirements for cash stabalises and relaxes, there will be less available cash to 'invest' in longer term holdings.

Of course when the cash crisis settles and business gets back to relative normality I would expect to see demand considerable outstrip supply.
 
a bit high for a fractaling 4th of a 5th butt who nose...

Cheers
........Kauri
 

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a bit high for a fractaling 4th of a 5th butt who nose...

Cheers
........Kauri

If it holds above the 2006 high of 730, I think there is gonna be some really good profits to be had longer term in selected gold stocks at current prices.

Another point that nobody has been talking about lately is central bank activity.
 
If it holds above the 2006 high of 730, I think there is gonna be some really good profits to be had longer term in selected gold stocks at current prices.

Another point that nobody has been talking about lately is central bank activity.

Not only central banks, the whole industry hates gold:-


The full article is worth a read, by Howard Ruff on Kitco
 
After the Fed tried to play tough with Lehman, they caved in today moneying up $90b for AIG. WaMu and a few others will be next.

Unnoticed amongst the drama was the TIC report which came out yesterday.

It was -$74b!!!!!

http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1138.htm

The TIC is supposed to balance the Current Account. Hence if you run a $64b curent account deficit, you need a +$60b TIC to balance, which somehow the US has managed to keep doing, by having foreigners keep buying equities, bonds, even real estate in the US.

Instead of not getting $60b inflows, they got $74b outflows!! Check out the far right column in the link.

Thats not good news for the USD!
 
Just curious how many people here trade gold physical?

I have found the physical market to be in a real good position as the US Spot is at the lower price end over the last 12months and the AUD Spot is still easily sitting comfortably between the 900-1000 range (thanks to our weakening dollar).

Even when the US price tanks the AUD holds up nicely or takes a softer fall.

If you trade physical you would know what im talking about.
 
Gold... or high country oysters.. who cares... if it trends... and sets up... trade it... after all... does a chart of gold look any different to a chart of high country oysters???

Cheers
............Kauri

Good point - though high country oysters tend to get a bit whiffy after sitting in a bank vault for a week or two.
 
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