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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Though they probably deserved that, it doesn't mean you shouldn't be looking at yourself in the mirror.
 
Thank heavens for that!

The USD has finally spiked up to the underside of its long term downtrend, burning a few shorts in the process.

My guess, is that is pretty much the USD rally topped out as fundamentals and long term TA take over, and at the same time gold has now hit its downside H&S target.
 

Kennas,

I started working on Fixed Time cycles Analsyis a year ago. Before then I was using in isolation EW and dynamic Cycles Analysis.

In the 2.5 years I have posted here, some markets I have called correctly to within a few days and others poorly, like most other posters. I must admit I am a perfectionist in anything I do. But does one need to be perfect in this business? Simply realising the trend has changed quite early in the piece and having the confidence to stand by the analsyis and take the trade is enough IMO.

The one thing I have done correctly on this site IMO is put backed my analysis with logic and reasoning via charts, both the good calls and the bad as the minutia of the message/opinion I needed to be portray could only be done this way. I don't believe in cheap talk.


Unfortunately have been unable to nail anything to the day. Except the day of last low in the XAO. Not price mind you(that is a different and more difficult animal altogther). The reason I was able to do this is because I have made a huge breakthrough in the last few months by finding out the correct cycle lengths to use in the increments of this fixed cycle analysis. Can I do this consistantly? That remains to be seen, but certainly it's a huge improvement to when I first started out 12 months ago. Between the knowledge of myself and my friend Magdoran, I think we do have enough there to call enough turns correctly for the type of trading in derivatives we pursue. It's not necessary to be bang on with shares. With options, yes, because they are decaying assets!

PS, I have never applied this fixed cycle analysis to GOLD or the USD. Only the XAO at this stage. All my posts re Gold and USD have been by eyeballing the market and EW which as you know can be subjective. But I feel that I have called Gold and the USD correctly in the long term EW charts posted earlier in the year. Short term, well... mixed.

To me Gold, Oil and AUDUSD looking very bearish and the USD is in a strong upward 3rd wave at present.

For one last time... "Trade What You See, not what you hope or wish for".
Sorry MRC, just had squeeze in one more time!!

Cheers
 

I rate that you have been open enough to place calls up on the forum, very few do, but I haven't rated your criticism of other members because their opinions have been different to yours.

Calling people amateurs, including me, has been completely out of line. Some people invest differently to you, but may have possibly done better. Who knows?

I hope you find another audience in the cyber, or non cyber, world to provide you the feedback and development opportunities you are obviously not getting here.

Good trading, kennas
 
wavepicker said:
Arrogance and complacency precede major declines, learnt that the hard way 9 years ago explod


Cheers
Click to expand...


Actually I see it as the next phase starting. The currency wars have just started - every central banker for themselves now. The irony is that it is perceived as a 'flight to safety' to the $USD, whereas it should be 'still got all this fiat cash looking for a home' rotation.

It's inevitable that all the priming money has to find another boom sector, so instead of investing in something that will provide real wealth and long term employment it instead ends up on the equities no brainer money shuffle.

Some big daily moves in everything coming up now as the credit constipation turns into the credit diarrhoea? Interest rates coming down?

$USD into the 'resistance' zone as gold hit's 'support' at $850. Aussie gold now $960.

And the PPT know that seasonal gold strength is about to start - and at these prices again being met with strong physical demand. Give it your best shot boys

And the last word from gold market analyst Ned Schmidt.
Which means they will have to do the same trick next week, and the next etc, to keep the jalopy on the road?
 

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Uncle Festivus said:
Which means they will have to do the same trick next week, and the next etc, to keep the jalopy on the road?
Click to expand...

I would agree Uncle,

RSI $US Index now 91.9 vs RSI $Gold now 31.1

As the saying goes

"BUY when there is rioting and blood in the streets and SELL when everyone is delirously happy, dancing in the streets." Rothschild Tango

"The rise in the [DOW] is temporary, BKX (US bank index) has broken down yesterday. The trouble hasn't evaporated with the rise of the $US rather the debasing of currencies has began. Gold at 850 and close to its cyclical nadir in time, is an opportunity to start scaling in positions for the next month and a half. There is another test forthcoming 2nd week of November, after the road to inflationary paradise will be taken for the next 2 years." Cyclist 8/8/08 gold's action - kitco forum

kbxk508
 
I'm not as confident as you guys and think the risk is US interest rate rises, oil continued correction down to $80 (as some are quoting) with housing coming off considerably, but settling, and a general sideways move for some time.

Gold stocks seem to factoring in this type of scenario. They are leading gold down.

Upside risk is of course the Fed lowering rates to boost consumption and save houses, as a priority over inflation, which it has done for the past few years.

It's a guess for me which way it will go, but if history is any indicator, and human nature is followed (save your **** and get more stuff) then rates low and inflation continuing to deflate the USD.

Just a guess.

Damn, I hope this $860 ish support holds, might be a good entry if confirmed.
 
If the latest information is anything to go by, the US consumer is spending paycheck to paycheck, and turning to credit cards for the rest. An interest rate rise would slow down the clearing of unsold houses and increase defaults. A rate decrease would allow inflation to escalate and would kill the dollar, sending commodities on a another rally.

Its hold for IR now, will oil have a little way to fall yet, and gold follow?

Cheers,


CanOZ
 
Well for my. In the short to medium I am ambivilent to bearish. I do not trust the bar....ds. However they have very little left.

Discussing with an old friend the other day we concluded that the only thing left is the the US dollar as the world reserve currency and thier war machine.

When it was the other way around with Germany owing the US a heap Hitler created the war machine to fight thier way out of it. Will the US do the same one day with China in an attempt to fight a way out of it too. History tends to repeat.

Back to present, the US dollar is the vehicle for the option derivative conglomeration which seems to justify the creation of trillions and maintains the paper wealth on which they may well exist for some time. Matters of real production or gold which have tangible value threaten that. At all cost they will try to maintain a Republican as President (though I dont' think the democrats would know what to do either) and so the printing pretending party will continue with some strength till post Novemeber.

Gold will most likely stay within the current sideways channel of US850 to 950but anything is allways possible, a spike late this month to $US1200 could well occur on past performance to be smashed down by October (I told you so) just before that election.

We have our powder dry and will be ready.

We live in interesting times.
 

I think your looking at the correct issues there CanOz, at least regarding gold.

For me, I can't see an IR rise before Xmas. By then I reckon oil will be generally lower. With a short term rise in the USD I'm afraid gold may bottom at support around 800.

FA I am holding to generally sideways for a few months yet, but until the currencies settle a bit it looks like it's going a bit lower yet. Relating in EW, if wave C is to at least equal wave A which is most often expected my rough maths gives 801.

Mind you I don't think gold is being fundamentally revalued. I think it's more to do with investors not wanting to get caught holding while the currencies realign themselves. From an Aus perspective it hasn't fallen much at all in AUD compared to USD. So I will be grabbing a few of the species that have had a bit of a hiding lately.

PS: Open to comment re my EW count. I'd really like to know if i've ballzed something up.
 

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kennas]7 Aug: [QUOTE=bean said:
Is the short term bottom in for POG and gold stocks
Unfortunately not at the moment
Buy end of the week
Click to expand...

Keeping this for posterity Bean.

You and josjes may have to get a room....

[/QUOTE]

Maybe this Friday then Bean?

Let's hope we don't go through this BS for another few months eh?

I'm still long NCM and LGL and wish I was following my general rules of selling on breakdown of obvious S&R lines. Very disappointed in myself. Lesson learnt, again...
 
kennas said:
Maybe this Friday then Bean?

Let's hope we don't go through this BS for another few months eh?
Click to expand...
Yes hopefully its all resolved in weeks rather than months
To be picking up stocks in the coming weeks at prices not seen for a few years. and prices we thought we would not see again.
It'll be like starting the Bull all over again
 
kennas said:
I'm still long NCM and LGL and wish I was following my general rules of selling on breakdown of obvious S&R lines. Very disappointed in myself. Lesson learnt, again...
Click to expand...

yep - TA becomes biased with FA...

EURUSD is the one to be watching - Clear downtrend. USD rally is nothing more than the ECB saying that the weak dollar, strong euro is hurting Europe...

not much support there, so not sure this gold support will be respected. 775-800 looks more likely imho - I'll be jumping in if that's the case because still too many risks ahead for gold not to rally from there.

My - might be worth less since I finished typing...
 
What I find really interesting about the recent decent of the POG is that ASX:GOLD has not reflected the move down at all. What is going on with this? Is it the die hard gold bugs holding the price up, or has there been a popular (rather than institutional) move into this quasi real gold substitute? Can anyone shed some light?
 

Gold moves in the opposite direction to currency value. Our dollar is down against the US dollar so our gold price moves up. Regardless of what the press and banks want you to believe, gold is about currency value. It is what paper money was originally based on. It was the first monetary means of exchange for goods and its use for that purpose goes back 5,000 years.

Study the movments in international currencies against moves in the respective gold prices and you will get the idea. Unless you understand these fundamentals it is dangerous to consider investing in it.

The answers can be found by spending a few days reading this thread. Or Google the history of gold and currencies.

GOLD on the ASX is not a substitute. For each unit there is supposedly one 10th of an ounce of physical gold stored in a vault on the holders behalf. It directly reflects the current Aus gold price
 
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