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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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HUI closed today @356
And the action of the last few days in GOLD stocks sure feels like Gold bull is over.

bean said:
Do we have a massive H & S on the HUI
Will there be panic selling soon in the Gold stocks as the HUI breaks down under 380. Sellers believe the Gold Bull is over?
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bean said:
HUI closed today @356
And the action of the last few days in GOLD stocks sure feels like Gold bull is over.
Click to expand...

Sure is bean, for a few years anyway. My premise is, forget commodities and start buying very cheap stocks in particular clean technology related
 
Ye all of little faith.

Gold is up $US 200 on this time 12 months ago. It has had a little float down to an area of support that it keeps visiting and everyone has run for the hills.

After the US Presidential election us bugs will have our day. In the meantime those in pysical are well ahead of the pack. Yawn, got the paper, read the net, back to bed for awhile.
 


Arrogance and complacency precede major declines, learnt that the hard way 9 years ago explod


Cheers
 
wavepicker said:
Arrogance and complacency precede major declines, learnt that the hard way 9 years ago explod


Cheers
Click to expand...

There is no arrogance in following simple fundamentals, paper money is becoming worthless due to debt but gold is a tangible that will cushion ones position.

And why do you have to sound nasty all the time. Seems we have been down this track before. You called it wrong and went a way for a long time.
 
wavepicker said:
Arrogance and complacency precede major declines, learnt that the hard way 9 years ago explod

Cheers
Click to expand...
Cripes WP! I can't believe your being critical of someone else in this manner after your down down down she goes episode which ended up being horribly wrong. That wasn't 9 years ago either.

 
wavepicker said:
Arrogance and complacency precede major declines, learnt that the hard way 9 years ago explod


Cheers
Click to expand...

WP, I used to have a little respect for your EW skills, but that setence of yours just blew that little bit away. Criticising someone does not lead you anywhere. You have your own opinions based on your own analysis, but we have ours own. It doesn't mean we will be right and neither you will be so as well.

The fundamental issues are just too big to ignore for some of us. Of course, those who trade on a purely mechanical way and on a different timeframe will certainly ignore that.



And to get back on topic, gold look ridiciously cheap now. I will wait for a confirmation on the weekly signal before getting back in. Been waiting for the seasonal weakness to reach its bottom and it's all going according to plan "so far".
 
explod said:
And why do you have to sound nasty all the time. Seems we have been down this track before. You called it wrong and went a way for a long time.
Click to expand...

Exactly! WP was as arrogant, critical and mocking as possible a few months ago, yet he managed to pick the exact low of the move to become more vocal about calling for a huge down move. You've just shown up again and called for a short term rally and multi-year decline! Totally wrong on both counts. Talk about being a contra-indicator!

Oil is a side-show in gold, The Euro/USD is the main driver at present. For Au to decline long term. USD had to enter a long term bull-market (which at least you recognise). There is not a snowball in hell's chance the USD is entering a multi-year bull. Bailouts are increasing, banks are going broke, since profits are cratering, so will tax receipts, while expenditures explode. That means the Budget Deficit is going to increase exponentially, which will need overseas funding. Who wants to fund more billions (trillions?) in USD that all countries and SWFs are already way overweight in?
 
I am still a BULL and the thing is I cannot believe the price I am paying for Gold stocks with the POG over US$870 AUD 950.
If someone had said a couple of years ago that you would be paying X for some gold stock today or tomorrow.

You would have been thinking the POG would have to be US$600 or less

Is today a short term bottom? then a rise before the final wave down.
Yes Kennas still waiting for that final bottom.
 
Refined Silver has summed it up nicely - if the US was a company why would you buy it's shares (currency)? A sobering statistic - if all the taxpayers in the US were to pay ALL of their wages & salaries as tax to the government, they would still not be able to cover their outgoings. They need foreigners to subsidise them. Capital dilution on a vast scale going on, so, why buy something that is being diluted all the time??

It's the last great suckers rotation - get set.

$AU gold price approx $955!!
 
Gold stocks have certainly been hit hard. The production cost issue is going to keep sending stocks to the wall at these prices too imo. I still see some good quality being sold along with the other stuff and have been moving into more defensive positions and also cash, but haven't been nimble enough not to get singed along the way. Key ingredients being cash, production or imminent production, simplicity, and grade.

At current prices with rising costs a lot of the marginal producers won't be able to sustain production so we'll see a drop in supply - but the positive effect of that won't necessarily be seen for months or years.

I still expect that fear on the USD side could set in at any time and cause things to go very bullish for gold and we might be starting to see some capitulation in the gold junior end. (a lot of the capitulators won't rise again of course but this sort of market will create good opportunities as well).
 

Good to see you back Bean, and yes anything can happen. Was informed some years ago that when gold really came onto the radar screen it would become very volotile.

As an alternative to fiat (paper) money it is acutely political in the economic sense.

It is why Gordon Brown (England) sold it down at turn of century. They were the arrogant ones and believed invicible in the creation of the derivative systems across the globe. And yes the black boxes are still doing it well, trouble is the foundation institutions themselves are going broke.

For every up (and lets face it, on debt they have had a great run) there is a down.

Time itself of course will be the judge.

We live in very interesting times.
 
Is the short term bottom in for POG and gold stocks
Unfortunately not at the moment
Buy end of the week
 
I'm not an ultra S/T trader, but there seems to be a bit of a pattern that may be tradable.

When Aus gold stocks get sold down hard (such as yesterday), that night often seems to see a decent drop in Au prices. It may be tradable to go short Au futures for a 12hr turnaround.

A Friday Aus gold share drop seems less predictable for the above.
 

Well I dunno but compelled to buy some more SBM today as my gut feels the gold price is floating around support that should hold. Huge rally on the Dow usually followed by a fall of it and US dollar.
 

I have to admit I was expecting gold to come back a bit further than it did last year too, but as we all know now oil went balistic and skewed things up a bit.

I'm not really expecting a crash per se in gold, more a bit of a woobbly patch as the currencies undergo a short term realignment against a bit firmer USD.

But having said that, I suppose we should be on the lookout for a bit of a knee-jerk over reaction and sell off in gold as the euphoria of low oil prices starts to set in again.
 
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