GGP - Golden Gate Petroleum

YOUNG_TRADER · 14 December 2006

Did a bit of snooping,

NXS's 438BCF Longtom/Crux Field Flowed at 77MMCF a day,

So if GGP's field is 250BCF I'd expect flow rates of 35-40MMCF a day,

Can't wait to see what the test flow rates are

Tomahawk · 14 December 2006

Hi Youngtrader, I could be wrong but I don't think it works that way.
Longtom is a well with a significant horizontal portion whereas Plum is largely vertical. You can't really extrapolate longtom's rates and apply to plum for the purpose of working out flow rate.
Flow rates depend on several factors with the most major ones probably being porosity and how much pressure there is at the target depth.
Commercial in this case would mean... enough to make it worthwhile in a er... commercial sense. i.e. payback in x months as oppose to x decades.
So in this case, several million cubic feet would be considered good enuf.
That's my 2 cents anyway.

YOUNG_TRADER · 15 December 2006

Thanks heaps Tomahawk,

I had no idea

Sean K · 15 December 2006

Tomahawk said:
Hi Youngtrader, I could be wrong but I don't think it works that way.
Longtom is a well with a significant horizontal portion whereas Plum is largely vertical. You can't really extrapolate longtom's rates and apply to plum for the purpose of working out flow rate.
Flow rates depend on several factors with the most major ones probably being porosity and how much pressure there is at the target depth.
Commercial in this case would mean... enough to make it worthwhile in a er... commercial sense. i.e. payback in x months as oppose to x decades.
So in this case, several million cubic feet would be considered good enuf.
That's my 2 cents anyway.

Good Tomohawk. You must work in the industry?

YOUNG_TRADER · 15 December 2006

Tomahawk,

Following up on your post,

How good is a 1000ft of possible Vertical Gas intersections?

Can you please take a look at their last ann re Padre Deep Drilling and tell me your thoughts on the well

Pre-drill estimates were between 50BCF of Gas and 250BCF of Gas, where 50BCF of Gas would be worth around $70m AUD or 40c per share and 250BCF of Gas up to $2 per share, so far they've kept saying results are inline with pre-drill estimates

Thanks in advance

Tomahawk · 15 December 2006

No Kennas, lol... I don't work in the industry... but I have been following oilers for several years now.

Young Trader, 1000 ft of possible gas bearing sands, while definitely a positive, does not really tell us how much gas there is. I think the amount of gas there depends on the size of the closure or trap, and also several other factors i.e. porosity, what the formation is made up of, pressure, etc.

For example, if we compare the 1000 ft here with the 90 odd ft the sugarloaf (ADI) has encountered, it may seem that we have more gas here. But in reality, the 90 off ft in the sugarloaf well stretches over a very large area (20 or 40km²... can't remember exactly how much). So Sugarloaf is still very much in the play for its 800+ bcf target although there was an initial sell-off when the only 90ft was announced.

If GGP are saying results are inline with expectations, then i guess that there might be anything between 50 to 250 BCF. At the end of the day, we will only have a much clearer idea of the size of the field after extended flow testing. We will just have to be patient.

On the bright side, GGP mgmt have been known to be conservative and this drill (and following drills) has had virtually zero hype. Also GGP has a risked valuation a lot higher than what its current SP.

disclosure: hold adi and ggp

Dums · 16 December 2006

Tomahawk said:
No Kennas, lol... I don't work in the industry... but I have been following oilers for several years now.

Young Trader, 1000 ft of possible gas bearing sands, while definitely a positive, does not really tell us how much gas there is. I think the amount of gas there depends on the size of the closure or trap, and also several other factors i.e. porosity, what the formation is made up of, pressure, etc.

For example, if we compare the 1000 ft here with the 90 odd ft the sugarloaf (ADI) has encountered, it may seem that we have more gas here. But in reality, the 90 off ft in the sugarloaf well stretches over a very large area (20 or 40km²... can't remember exactly how much). So Sugarloaf is still very much in the play for its 800+ bcf target although there was an initial sell-off when the only 90ft was announced.

If GGP are saying results are inline with expectations, then i guess that there might be anything between 50 to 250 BCF. At the end of the day, we will only have a much clearer idea of the size of the field after extended flow testing. We will just have to be patient.

On the bright side, GGP mgmt have been known to be conservative and this drill (and following drills) has had virtually zero hype. Also GGP has a risked valuation a lot higher than what its current SP.

disclosure: hold adi and ggp

Guys
Just FYI Pantheon finished the day up just over 7%, adding 11p to the share price in afternoon trading - ending at 152 bid, 157p offer .... I guess this was due to people getting in before monday, recognising that Plum Deep flow test results are due early next week.
Have a good weekend - and look out for England's Ashes come-back .... the Dunkirk spirit will be re-kindled !!!!
Well - maybe, if we're lucky, on a good day, with a blue moon
Cheers
Dums

YOUNG_TRADER · 18 December 2006

Hey Guys,

Sick as a dog with the flu (do dogs get sick?)

Anyway, hoping GGP will make me have a Merry Christmas

Holding 25k in shares and 800k in opies which finish in 2 days, 65c opies, c'mom Plum Deep Flow Rates, where the heck are you?

Dums any info re Pantheon?

Anyone heard anything re Plum Deep?

Dums · 19 December 2006

Folks
Pantheon having a good day in UK ahead of flow results, they were trading at 170bid/175offer, but just dropped off a little, so in the order of 9-12% up at just B4 2pm on Monday.
PCI (nothing to do with Pantheon or Golden Gate) just announced 14mmcfg from its 2nd Algeria well and the share price is down 5% so hopefully be don't suffer a similar fate !!!
Congratulation on your Ashes success .... it hurts me to say that the better team won!!!
Cheers Dums

YOUNG_TRADER · 19 December 2006

Very low volume given that results are expected very very shortly,

Suggests that even insiders don't know yet, so may have to wait until tomorrow for results,

Watching, waiting hoping here

fma007 · 19 December 2006

Are results expected today?

YOUNG_TRADER · 19 December 2006

Last Wednesday, they said results are expected early next week,

I would presume early would mean Monday or Tuesday, given options finish tomorrow you'd think the company would try and get them out by today at the latest since Opie Exercise is 65c and this well could be worth close to $2.60

Will have to wait and see, watch for buying/selling on volume to give an early indication how the results went

Dums · 20 December 2006

Hi Guys - PANR down a modest 4p today - everybody waiting for Plum Deep results. If they are released on your Wednesday morning could I ask that you post it on this site for me to pick-up before hitting the sack tonite !!!
The view is that anything around about 14mmcfgpd would be spot on - and anything over this towards the 30mmcfgpd would be fantastic.
The porosity is always a worry though at these depths ...
What's you thoughts?
Cheers all
Happy holiday
Dums

Sean K · 20 December 2006

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Last Wednesday, they said results are expected early next week,

I would presume early would mean Monday or Tuesday, given options finish tomorrow you'd think the company would try and get them out by today at the latest since Opie Exercise is 65c and this well could be worth close to $2.60

Will have to wait and see, watch for buying/selling on volume to give an early indication how the results went

Good luck YT. Hope these results come out this am. Could be a very good Christmas, although I think you've made enough this year!!!! Not sure if you'll get your $2.60......

YOUNG_TRADER · 20 December 2006

Well today is the day the opies finish trading,

With every minute that passes I lose hope that GGP will release flow rates in time, early next week my foot!

It just doesn't make sense, the company could use some moe funds for its aggressive growth plans and the opies if exercised would net them $30m+ why wouldn't you try and get the results out in time?

YOUNG_TRADER · 20 December 2006

Well only 3.5 hrs to go till close of trade, looks like no results today, such a shame

Complete lack of volume = no insiders know anything yet which means no results today

Oh well

Sean K · 20 December 2006

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Well only 3.5 hrs to go till close of trade, looks like no results today, such a shame

Complete lack of volume = no insiders know anything yet which means no results today

Oh well

YT, didn't the company tell you 'early in the week'? That must be disappointing?

YOUNG_TRADER · 20 December 2006

Very disappointing Kennas,

Sold 400k of my 800k opies at 0.003 so got $1200 back, paid probably $2000 or so for them all

What a waste, I tell you, I'll be really pissed if tomorrow or Friday they come out with amazing flow rates, like really pissed

fma007 · 21 December 2006

Results are out

Caliente · 21 December 2006

ok, I'm no oil tycoon, but that announcement doesn't sound pretty. Could be a s***estorm this morning for GGP holders.

GGP - Golden Gate Petroleum

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