- Joined
- 7 January 2011
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It was 800 inc. admin and according to the last announcement "progress has been made reducing cost per ounce" and 600-650 an ounce is a more likely long term average. Not exactly sure what they are running at over at NAV in the present though, but their q4 report should be out shortly.
Assuming novo's figures are correct, 80M in debt to 24M in assets is a riskier prospect, and you would expect to be compensated for that risk with capital growth which is not happening in the market. The debt also effects the earnings, a very rough EPS estimate for 2011 with GDO would be 6-10c (which would pay off its debt in about a year).
Nav will make 6-8c EPS in 2011 but does not have the risk profile GDO has. The kicker for me will be the rare earth entitlements that are basically a bonus of 1-2c per share that the market has not woken up to.
GDO has a very juicy cost base but there are probably better technical and fundamental options out there. The market is going a bit cold on gold stocks also, with Uranium and Zinc looking to be a better alternative prospect in the next few years according to some analyst reports.
Whens the next announcement due? end of jan or the 28th?
anyone know?
31st of Jan. Either someone out there knows something we don't, or this is the most under-valued stock on the ASX.
RE: Tab, soz man been dying of infection (not literally dying but feels really bad). Anyway I guess with your last post mine is going to be useless for you but for the others who weight book value, DRA has zero debt, cashflows 30+ million a year, 28 mill in the bank as of October (more by now), has another two mines in the pipeline, and a 40% interest in the "Weld Range Metals" project, NPV of 681 million 10% risk adjusted, all for a market cap of ~130 million fully diluted. Management previously had a buyback in place but cancelled it, the money is probably going to be needed for Weld and the two new mines, one due this year one next year from memory.
Anyway back onto the real topic on hand, GDO, in relation to most gold projects it's undervalued, however the assets are still relatively quality. I've run the numbers over NAV, and it's an attractive company but only while gold prices are high, it's extremely leveraged to the gold price, so a short term price reduction of 10% will hurt them more than GDO due to the maths behind cost of production vs sale price, but by the same token NAV has more upside if the POG keeps marching up. Either way I rate GDO's gold mines higher than NAV's gold mines (mines = all exploration and production projects), and that might just be me, obviously other people will appreciate NAV more. Anyway in summary, I don't think arguing X is better value than Y is a good use of time when both are incredibly undervalued. Hopefully we both make buckets of cash, the fundamentals certainly indicate that we will so all that's left is for the prices to more accurately reflect them.
PVF.
Here are some interesting facts and figures presented to an Invester presentation. Hope all share holders find them beneficial.
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110207/pdf/01148796.pdf
There is obviously something wrong with this company.Translation: I hope some people believe it, buy the stock and help dig me out of this hole!
PVF, how do you go about valuing such a company? I.e how do you come to the conclusion 'I think exploration company A's share is worth about $5'. I know you are big on small-cap resource/exploration stocks, I have difficulty on working out how to gauge if these are cheap or expensive when they are not yet returning a profit.So it's really up to what you believe is making GDO cheap, is it just the (unjustified) fear of nationalization of South African mining assets, or is it just ignorance by most people as to just how much GDO has improved as a company. Personally I'm quite big on GDO (having done quite a lot of research, it definitely lines up as an interesting investment).
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