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GCN - GoConnect Limited

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The release of Appendix 3B was a big positive, and the timing was exquisite. Because later in the day the quarterly report showed that GCN had cash in bank of $1,752. That's it. $1,752. No more zeros after that.

The quarterly would have hammered the share price, but the 3B (which raised $700k) saved the day. You have to take your hat off to GCN's management... they have been able to access equity capital ongoingly for a company that no reasonable person should invest in.

It makes sense to question also, what reasonabe person would subscribe to 10m shares @ 7c when the market price is <5c, and there being plenty to buy on the ask. But as far as the company is concerned, this capital raising offers them another 3-6 months of operation so fundamentally it's a positive.

Cash receipts for the quarter was ~$55k and cash flow was negative $1m or so. But as the true believers would tell you... stop looking to the past. However, they may have said the same thing 3-6 months ago at which time this quarterly report was the future.

Technically, the stock has woken up a fair bit of late so well done to those who managed to profitably trade it. It hasn't broken 4.8c decidingly yet for me but if they put out a few more positive announcements they might get there.
 

The ability to generate revenue remains to be demonstrated.

4c is as expected no one should be surprised by the cash position or lack of revenue.

The comments on WiFi are promising,
The launch with NetBay yes..but the suggestion of further JVs would be very positive imo.

The raising at .07 was previously announced some time ago.

GCN over it's entire listed history has been always able to raise new capital at favorable prices . With one exception . That should not be dismissed lightly imo !


Why buy at .07 ? GCN is doing deals and making connections in a wider context maybe the parties are interested in generating goodwill ?

In any case the .07 was previously announced.



I see nothing unexpected or that should have been unexpected.
The 4C should have been no surprise and should not have hammered the share price.

The comments in the covering letter point to the more important factors that will move the share price when and if achieved.

Motorway
 
Looks like more hot air from GCN. It's truly outstanding that a company with virtually no revenue and, IMO, no prospects for changing that, can manage to push out so many announcements and still say so little.
 
McLovin said:
Looks like more hot air from GCN. It's truly outstanding that a company with virtually no revenue and, IMO, no prospects for changing that, can manage to push out so many announcements and still say so little.
Click to expand...


You can not discount the fact that the company is a survivor and has connections.

"Looks" do not matter..

Delivery Now Does , yes !

.045 would be a GOOD level to start the next move UP.

launch of Wifi with Netbay YES

But the Covering letter in the 4 c
Points to further JVs in Wifi

This would be very positive imo !

People can Buy and sell in the one day
or over a few days-- means corrections to the trend.

People who Buy and Hold a "good thing" They are the ones that make the trends.

.044 would be half way back
To resume a move up from .045 would be a positive.

The 30+ million traded yesterday was not all day traders ! esp when it came out of previous day on ~ 3 million !

When it went past .048 it took on shorter time horizons.
And the chart not long after went sideways .. actually sideways !

Motorway
 
motorway said:
I see nothing unexpected or that should have been unexpected.
The 4C should have been no surprise and should not have hammered the share price.
Click to expand...

The rise on 3B's release indicates to me that many (myself included) didn't believe the 7c placement was going to come through. It did take 2 months which is a fair bit longer than usual. Without the 3B and the new money, the 4C will show that the company is pretty much dead and it would most definitely hammer the share price.

motorway said:
Why buy at .07 ? GCN is doing deals and making connections in a wider context maybe the parties are interested in generating goodwill ?
Click to expand...

The differences between buying in a raising at 7c vs buying on market at 5c is $200k (more expensive for the investor) and that the company can continue as a going concern. To me, this placement suggests that that particular investor's motivation is to ensure the company stays alive, rather than to maximise his/her profit. You'd think that if a company has fantastic prospects but is close to insolvency, you would drive a pretty hard bargain and grab as many shares as you can.

motorway said:
GCN over it's entire listed history has been always able to raise new capital at favorable prices . With one exception . That should not be dismissed lightly imo !
Click to expand...

Yes and that has been great for management to keep their jobs but not particularly rewarding for shareholders.
 




Individual stocks are to be judged as much by what they do as what they do not do !


Motorway
 
Really interesting !

Note it did make new ground !

Also note the increasing volume concentration ...And it at close was finding support at .045

Now consider How would you define the active time frame ( I prefer Time Horizon ) ?

What causes trends Vs Stop and reverse.

Every position has a dual effect ... Every Buy at some time becomes a sell... The important question is when ?

eg people may buy and sell in the one day ! or they may buy and a decade later sell !
consider where do you want these respective volumes ? above the current price ? or below the current price ?

Consider the pattern That 5 reversal chart is showing ==> slow but sure rising supports With bearish patterns at the tops which reverse giving rise to impulsive moves up which retrace quickly almost, ALMOST from their starting place

( markets in general are behaving like this on a larger scale )

A lot of volume compressed into the recent action

See where I am going here ?

Consider should we buy strength at the open ?


Motorway
 

Charts Discussed above !


line of .045s are an important feature !




~ 5 Reversal






Consider should we buy strength at the open ?

It can Go Up
It can Go Sideways
It can Go Down

Consider should we buy strength at the open ?
Click to expand...

I would consider .045 itself a good entry ( .044 as well )



Motorway
 



Motors

We found support at 4.1 ish.
So even though our 2 charts may slightly differ there is support at 4.1 on one of them on a 45 degree angle.
Onwards from this point hopefully.
 
comment from the last blog update last night !


Very likely THE TURNING POINT
we will see tomorrow ==>
But we always need to act today !
Click to expand...



Yesterday's close is the Green 0

Motorway
 
Waiting. waiting. Waiting.
I feel like the David Carradine character in kung fu "Kwai Chang Caine"

The base is formed now.

I guess we see a run up in price preceding the next price sensitive announcement-funny that?
 
Dr Stock

Same opportunity Again imo

Buying got hit with supply last time.

This Time ?

Motorway
 
motorway said:
Dr Stock

Same opportunity Again imo

Buying got hit with supply last time.

This Time ?

Motorway
Click to expand...

You are still holding I guess. It's got a 50% range in the last 3 months. I have no idea how one manages the risk/reward with such share price behaviour (without being stopped out and without an overly small position).

There's a lot of talk about this free WiFi generating substantial revenue for GCN, but I've yet to see any real numbers being presented. I am not an expert in online media but here's a revenue sizing exercise for people to use as a starting point.

The free Wifi is available at Melbourne Flinder Street Station which has 100,000 people going through it everyday.

How many of these 100,000 people carry a web-enabled device?
Let's say 60%, so 60,000 people.

How many of these 60,000 people want to use the net while they are at the station?
Many people are only at the station for a short time so they may not have the need to use their devices (even though they are carrying them). Let's say 50%, so 30,000 people.

How many of these 30,000 people choose to use Wifi instead of their own 3G/4G network?
Again, since most people are not at the station a very long time, many tasks are easier done with their own mobile data service. So let's say 1/3 will use the Wifi, which means 10,000 users per day.

How long will each usage session be?
Let's say 10 minutes being the average time people wait for trains.

How many ads can be displayed in 10 minutes?
You would think most people wouldn't tolerate much more than 2-3 ads within a 10 minute session. So let's say 3 so that brings the total daily impressions to ~30,000.

How much many can you charge advertisers?
Online display ads are pretty cheap - may be $10-20 cpm. Let's say the GCN ads are potentially smarter/bigger/interactive so they can charge 3-4x the rate. So let's say 5-8c per impression.

So what have we got? 100,000 people a day, 60% with devices, 50% of them uses the device and 1/3 of them uses the free wifi, and each of them see 3 ads which produces revenue of ~5-8c each.

Total potential daily revenue ~$1500 to $2400. Annual revenue = $0.5-0.85m. Let's round it up to $1m p.a.

Now before you say that's pretty good... that $1m is the revenue for the wifi network itself. How much is GCN's share as the sale agent who secure the ads from other ad agencies? Remember that Netbay who's paid for and run the network might want a return as well. So 20%? 30%? That's somewhere between $200-300k revenue for GCN.

Happy to stand corrected but the numbers do not look that big on first pass.
 
Gees skc, with those generous forecasts I'm starting to think you've jumped on the bandwagon!
 

SKC ...So with all the Stations ?

Possibility of content ? special offers ? driving audience ?

Then possibility of such success bringing in other expansion ?

With Netbay ? or with others ? China ?..

One of the possible themes that could drive the share price ? ( P1 to come too )

All part of Successful Tape Reading==>
A study of responses.

Yes it does not hurt to be aware of the themes
But do not get lost in the them...

Those who really understand them
Tend to be silent or after the fact ( the fact of their selling or buying )

What is more important
what you or I think or what is true ?

What price is after another ~ 7 million go though ?
Such is a fact we can take real bearings from


Motorway
 
motorway said:
SKC ...So with all the Stations ?

Possibility of content ? special offers ? driving audience ?

Then possibility of such success bringing in other expansion ?
Click to expand...

If I was valuing a single corner store, do I factor in all the other street corners they can potentially expand to? What about other product range? Hardware? Fashion? Makeup? Cars?

Using this logic, all businesses have unlimited potential. How one chooses to discount (or even disregard) those potentials is up to the investor. But asking simple questions like "Have they had a track record of success?", "Do they have any unique competencies or competitive advantages?" and "Have they got the funds to expand?" would guide one in deciding how much value (if at all) to put on such potentials.

It is a fact that Wal-mart and Westfield started off as a small single store and built an amazing empire... but for every Wal-mart there are 50 million other corner stores that don't make it. So let's make a distinction between possibility and probability.

motorway said:
With Netbay ? or with others ? China ?..

One of the possible themes that could drive the share price ? ( P1 to come too )
Click to expand...

Again, it is not possible to value these (and all the MOUs) which are only slightly evolved from the "thought bubble" stage. The only rational way of looking at these is to consider the historical returns of the many GCN partnerships and ventures in the past to see how successful they have been. Imo the only rational answer one can arrive at is zero (in fact the rational answer is a negative number, but let's be kind and call it zero).

One can possibly argue that after failing for 10 years it is finally the time for GCN to shine. Good luck to those who invest on this view (which they are entitled to hold).

And P1... I raised the question about its history and actual ownership some posts back. If someone has done the research it would at least resolve its legitmacy, although not its worth.


I am sure there are those who know what is true. They just don't seem to be buying at the moment.

GCN will report in the next couple of days. We know the financials will be weak but let's hope for holders sake that there will be some meaningful updates.

motorway said:
What price is after another ~ 7 million go though ?
Such is a fact we can take real bearings from


Motorway
Click to expand...

You've been studying this tape over 200m shares ago... why would the next 7m going to provide real bearing? Or is that 7m just a figure of speech?
 

Rate of change in price in terms of certain number of shares

Atm a trading range with the top of the range .032
and the bottom of the range .032



Motorway
 
Just wondering,

Is it possible to find out how many shares a company has issued?

And how many shares a company has issued in the past year?

Another forum says GCN has 6 billion shares on issue? That can't be right..
 
Market cap/share price will give you number of shares on issue. GCN has 929,346,337 shares on issue, according to Iress.
 
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