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Some comments on the recent posts.

Secondary markets are essential. They are linked to freedoms.

Markets are Dynamic Self Organizing Systems.


The problem with markets is they are not liquid enough and are not diverse enough.
We need more traders and more variety of traders Not Less...


If there is real freedom then markets will always be heterogeneous and this is there resilience , strength and wisdom.

We need more prepared to buy at bottoms and sell at tops . NOT LESS..

Quotes are from modern day P&F... Richard B Olsen.

On the issue of Newbies
I would suggest one of the most basic Newbie mistakes is to think reading announcements and becoming opinionated or maybe worse forum posts.
Translates into some sort of Method..

I quoted Richard D Wyckoff in an earlier post . There were plenty of such Newbies way back then too.

I would suggest that if reading announcements or forum posts clouds your judgement and I mean posts on all the External things ( not on Internal Generated Information of ==> price volume and Time ) Then maybe better to cease reading them. At the end of time they should not have not mattered in the least. (when you should click the sell Button).




And he became very strong on this point to this extent
(and He was no slouch on real fundamental understanding either)


I see at the moment no deterioration in the technical position
I see continued positive signs of absorption.

The three Box reversal chart is very useful for a number of reasons. But (imo) should not be the basis of BUY or SELL decisions.

One of it's virtues is the OBJECTIVE and HIGH CLARITY aid in STOP PLACEMENT..

The Tape has a Two Dimensional Reality. Price and Time. But that is not Time Frames.


Motorway
 
I see an emergent uptrend
With very positive action over the last two days

A lot of supply being absorbed
~ .034 would seem to be a key level Just at this moment ( the battle today was waged there )

A move now to .036 would be significant
A move back to .038 would very much confirm the bullish case.

See only reasons to be long from the charts
But too early to raise stops
Though OK to do so
As long as you ready to re enter quickly ( of course imo )

Motorway
 

Am really at odds with your analysis.
Since November there are currently 2 billion shares worth of recently trapped new owners who are today sitting on losing trades, between break even and 45% loss.
As is often the case, the moment they can escape their loosing position and keep their ego intact, they do so.
There is a suggestion today that despite the 10m worth of demand which appeared at todays open to push price to 3.8c, another 16million traded which forced price back down by about 10%, surely this must be counted as evidence that supply exists in huge numbers and is likely to exhaust this impulsive push by demand.

Motorway, when there is large volumes on the highs and much lower numbers on the lows, do you agree that should be seen as significant resistance zone and not likely to be broken to the upside until a large amount of that volume has been transferred to stronger hands at lower prices in the range ?
I note 2 billion underwater and only 300m in profit at this point
 
volume can be churned and these days a lot is.



eg today saw the action as very short term traders , buying and then selling within the first half of the day.

But who did they sell too ?

There are other indications beside volume !

esp Time
The initial move up from .024 recently was a key indication imo

Also moves with news Vs moves without news
esp moves against the initial response of news


I will Leave this open for discussion for the moment.


Motorway
 
motorway said:
volume can be churned and these days a lot is.
Click to expand...

Churned has nothing to do with it. The sell still leaves a new owner holding a losing trade if price goes lower

motorway said:
eg today saw the action as very short term traders , buying and then selling within the first half of the day.
Click to expand...

Demand controlled the first hour, supply enjoyed the rest of the day and with greater volume which is why price declined again.

motorway said:
But who did they sell too ?

There are other indications beside volume !

esp Time
The initial move up from .024 recently was a key indication imo
Click to expand...

If you include the move from 2.4c as a single wave, note how much greater the supply on the second occasion today, compared to 16/3.
Very hard for me to dismiss volume, without volume price does not change, no matter how much time passes.

motorway said:
Also moves with news Vs moves without news
esp moves against the initial response of news
Motorway
Click to expand...

With or without news is only one of the reasons why people trade. Price action and volume encompasses all the reasons within the period.

Appreciate if you would address my prior question.
Motorway, when there is large volumes on the highs and much lower numbers on the lows, do you agree that should be seen as significant resistance zone and not likely to be broken to the upside until a large amount of that volume has been transferred to stronger hands at lower prices in the range ?
Thanks,
 
History is important. We have reference points.

But resistance is about what is happening and how it is happening in the context of scale. Resistance is about the movement and ease of movement NOW.

The action today retraced to a half way point of the last up wave from

2.9 to 3.8

~ 3.3/3.4

Buying came in there was GOOD DEMAND .

It makes for a series of rising supports
At the right side of reversal

Ideal indications would be a intra day move to .038 then a ease back to .036

A move to .036 and close would be also be a good indication



It is the lines at .03/ .031 that define an important lower level

Motorway
 
With or without news is only one of the reasons why people trade. Price action and volume encompasses all the reasons within the period.
Click to expand...


"It is well understood in financial economics that shifts in demand can move price without involving transactions. So long as the shift in demand is common knowledge"

"order flow is ( in fact ) correlated with information that is not known by all market participants "

"Order flow, then, is a proximate cause of
Price changes, with the underlying dispersed information being the primitive cause. "

Ok hence the importance on the move highlighted below

On No News...

==>I have it in an Uptrend !

.034 is atm important area

But a move down to even .031 would still be OK

.03 would have us back in the base ( at the top of that base )

Supply was seen to be Overcoming Supply ( The Down trend )
Supply was met by demand ( A base formed , An Equilibrium , Sideways development )
Demand has been seen to be overcoming Supply ( The Up trend )

At .034 , We have an apex forming


Ok this chart Shows the action up till the 15 march

I want to draw attention to the move through the Trend Line Between the Two Black Boxes ( all those Black Boxes are the daily closes )
That move was on NO News and was Faster and Further than any other on that chart

It was a Sign of Strength


The 0 is the line at .03

What I said above should be clear from the chart.

It's in an UPTREND !

I have not posted the recent action
-->The Apex forming at .034





Motorway

"There is no failure, only feed back
Observations should be seen as something that changes opinion"
 

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A move now to .036 would be significant
A move back to .038 would very much confirm the bullish case.
Click to expand...

Ideally would like to see .038 now before any move down (~ .032 )
A move down after .038 would be fine imo ( better to see the trend tested , than untested )

.04 would trigger many Buy signals.. So we see if the composite man is content to let those signals be triggered or not.

I see signs of strength and reasons to be looking to adding to more positions.

lets see

On stops
But too early to raise stops
Click to expand...
==> .038 would allow the raising of stops imo

At .038 and esp .04 ... many upside objectives begin to be activated..




Motorway
 
Ideally would like to see .038 now before any move down (~ .032 )
A move down after .038 would be fine imo ( better to see the trend tested , than untested )
Click to expand...


Done !

Now would like to see a move back to .035 ( .036 ideal )

Motorway
 
It is the lines at .03/ .031 that define an important lower level
Click to expand...

Building quite an important lateral..

How aggressive should an entry be ?

Now.. Would be very aggressive
Waiting for expansion of activity would be middling aggressive

Waiting for expansion and .032 would be 3/4 aggressive

.035 would be aggressive at one scale higher etc

could also break down towards ~ .026.

Extreme contraction of activity atm
Exhaustion of sellers
but passive support and lack or urgency of buyers.

But atm Support.

Not take much to trigger good upside targets imo

It is the lines at .03/ .031 that define an important lower level
Click to expand...

imo watch for here for any change of behavior

Motorway
 

I've been watching as well. Very low range of bars and bugger all volume. I'd wait for both to change.

gg
 

This post has upside bias, assumes price will rise from this price zone.
IMHO, there is little evidence to support that opinion.

Looking at the background, since Nov 11 when demand moved from a previous price zone (top of zone 2.5c) through to the extreme top of the next price zone (7c), supply has steadily retreated price.
Middle of this zone is between 5.2c and 3.8c where the bulk of traders have transacted holdings during the past 12mths.
You can see how in mid Feb this middle ground was left behind when again supply voted to force price lower, attempting to test the previous zone at 2.5c.
By 7th March, showed there was no desire to take price back into the previous zone (lack of supply beyond 2.5c)
Since then there has been 2 relatively weak advances made by demand (9th and 21st Mar) which were successful and another attempt on 22nd Mar which was subsequently squashed by available supply.
This leaves the last clear signal of consensus as negative, since that date no evidence is apparent either way to support a bias.
More recently you can see lows getting lower on lack of supply, this shows no demand at present, where any supply entering the market sees price fall. Easiest direction of travel remains down at this stage.
I dont see how a long trade is justified with the background as it has unfolded over the last few months.
 
could also break down towards ~ .026.

There is evidence but not enough agree !

.026 is real possibility

The thing about lateral phases is someone will be proved wrong.

we about to find out , maybe

Evidence was in the deceleration and exhaustion ( temporary? ) against intermediate scale background.

What is missing are ANY SIGNS OF STRENGTH from this lateral phase

lets see


could also break down towards ~ .026.
This has / had just as much probability.

The buy questions has stated were questions for discussion


A bullish case now (ATM) rests on depth returning and holding at .03

Some sort of spring.

But .026 is real possibility. ( then new questions )

We just seen how dynamic is analysis

The 1,000,000, + taking out of the bid is new info
it was a response to that lateral
Now it is a test.

Now we must judge the response

Motorway
 
No worries Motorway,

I prefer to back the horse coming around the last turn, rather than in the starting gate. Less individual profit I admit.

gg
 
Mistagear said:
This post has upside bias, assumes price will rise from this price zone.
IMHO, there is little evidence to support that opinion.

I dont see how a long trade is justified with the background as it has unfolded over the last few months.
Click to expand...

There are few posts by Motorway on GCN without upside bias... since circa 2003

And As I have said
It is looking good.
The Liquidity was an attraction in buying
If You are buying something no one else wants
You Can be sure It is a bargain !!
Click to expand...


Quotes from Motorway taken from the other site dated 29 July 2003. I particularly like the last line... look to the future - don't stop now just because it's been 10 years!

Motorway, congratulations on almost 10 years of dedicated ramping disguised under whatever form of technical analysis you practice. I think GCN should recognise you and your fellow ramp crew for a long service award - perhaps have the ceremony held in Mongolia, broadcast live over their IPTV channel, and give free P1 shares to all those who attend. On second though, may be only those who purchase minimum 10 drinks can qualify for the free shares. BTW, don't worry about any hangover, there is a bottle of Liver Bioguard in the showbag of free goodies.
 


This has all the makings of a scandal.

Do tell.

Do reply Motorway.

And I thought it was just a stock.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
This has all the makings of a scandal.

Do tell.

Do reply Motorway.

And I thought it was just a stock.

gg
Click to expand...

GG I have followed the stock since it listed. Posts 10 years ago were posts 10 years ago. ( that was a good post supported by research from the time on "the lottery ticket premium"

You will find a long period in between when there was no posts the majority of that period. Until very recently

SKC
Motorway, congratulations on almost 10 years of dedicated ramping disguised
Click to expand...
Provide proof or a retraction fair enough.

When did my most recent post on GCN occur on that other site ?
When was my previous last post on that Site ?

If it GCN stays listed another 10 years. That would be even a more reasons to keep an eye on it.

I have one nick on all these forums
and so anyone can search.

I also earlier mentioned and pasted a post I made on that forum myself.


A buy at .03 would still not be stopped out (.028 )
the more confirmed buys at .032 and .035 NEVER OCCURRED or were triggered.

Why .026 is a probability
I see just atm .032 as the higher probability

Because of the intermediate background

There has been a wave Up a correction
and then a failed move into the second wave

There has been a very small three wave move DOWN into the lateral

With today a move below the .03 to .029

With some increase in Volume activity.



Analysis is Dynamic.


Motorway
 
Lol motorway are you still in GCN? I hope you've taken some off the table previously yeh?...
 
motorway said:
SKC Provide proof or a retraction fair enough.
Click to expand...

I said
Motorway, congratulations on almost 10 years of dedicated ramping disguised under whatever form of technical analysis you practice.
Click to expand...
Which part would you like me to retract precisely?

Dedicated? Your HC searchable history had 525 posts total since 2003. 277 are on GCN, 117 on SSI. Plus another 100 posts on Top$ purely on GCN, and another 41 Blog Entries on GCN (out of total of 62 blog entries since Dec 2011). That's a total of 535 from 687, or 78%. You can't deny that's dedication!

Ramping? I can't go over all your 535 posts and work out the exact percent of posts with positive bias/spin. But here's an example from one of your first HC posts dated 23/01/2003 titled "Lots Happening".


And later that same day when refuted by others...


I suppose we have yet to reach the fullness of time? Enough said.

Disguised? You present your charts inevitably with a positive bias, and it was picked out twice here by other chartists. Your discussion of the chart is either in an uptrend, or when it is heading down, it is showing "absorption", "sign of strength", "support below", followed by "imminent breakout". The best one was "the billycart goes the fastest at the bottom". It is always buy or hold, it's never a sell.

Congratulations? Surely you don't want me to retract that? No. You deserve it!
 
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