GCL - Gloucester Coal

michael_selway · 16 April 2009

noirua said:
Gloucester Coal seem to have missed out on the recent run up in coal companies stock prices. Or was it that they leaped on the takeover bid that may now be holding them back a bit. Speculative now on a possible counter bid in this now tightly held stock.

Yeah could be interesting

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.7 91.0 71.5 84.5
DPS 21.0 28.5 25.5 62.5

Date: 26/3/2009
Author: Bryan Frith
Source: The Australian --- Page: 18
The Australian Takeovers Panel has made public the reasons for its rejection of the proposed merger of coal groups Gloucester and Whitehaven. The watchdog had ruled that the deal must be put to a stockholders' vote, due to the change of control involved, and it is now clear that the Panel thinks the agreement between the two was designed to thwart the takeover ambitions of major Gloucester investor Noble Group. The next step in the process may not occur until April 2009.

thx

MS

noirua · 16 May 2009

Noble Group have raised their bid again to $7.00 and this is looking close to a likely clinching offer for the company. They may have to add a bit more to get close to the 90% holding they'll need. Could still be worth waiting for another dollar.

sqwark7600 · 16 May 2009

noirua said:
Noble Group have raised their bid again to $7.00 and this is looking close to a likely clinching offer for the company. They may have to add a bit more to get close to the 90% holding they'll need. Could still be worth waiting for another dollar.

IMO you do good work.
I think this is the deal price. Anyone like to have a stab at the probable price movement for Monday?
My is a $6.81 O, $6.93 H, $6.68 L and $6.79 C, 618K V.

:sheep:

My opinion; your call. Life is your decisions in action.

noirua · 18 May 2009

Gloucester's independent directors have recommended the $7.00 a share bid by Noble Group: http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=3068

noirua · 18 May 2009

noirua said:
Gloucester's independent directors have recommended the $7.00 a share bid by Noble Group: http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=3068

The announcement by GCL says that the merger with Whitehaven will not go ahead, however, Gloucester have raised their stake in WHC to 39.6% from 26%.

noirua · 20 May 2009

Osendo Pty ( subsidiary of Noble Group) have raised their stake in Gloucester Coal to 23.57%. No news of any reduction or otherwise in the recent raised interest in Whitehaven by Gloucester.

pacestick · 20 May 2009

noirua said:
The announcement by GCL says that the merger with Whitehaven will not go ahead, however, Gloucester have raised their stake in WHC to 39.6% from 26%.

which raises the question in my mind if succesfull will noble sell off the WHC interest to a third party ,possibly felix may find it more appealing than a move on an overseas company although they would not have the majority position they have in other mines it is doubtfull if they could have pulled that off in India anyway

noirua · 21 May 2009

Noble Group have said their bid of $7.00 is final. Until, of course, they make the next final bid.

Noble Group are now buying stock on market, leaving the final trade at $7.01.

If all the non-director holders sit on their hands, then Noble will be forced to raise the offer.

pacestick · 22 May 2009

Credit Suisse has obtained a 5.5% shareholding in GCL The stake was purchased in overseas markets.

noirua · 22 May 2009

Noble Group now have 57.2% (46.7 million shares) and it looks as if they will eventually get the company. So I have sold my stock which was my third venture, in buying four times since May 2008. Prices paid $11.80, $11.37, $10.80 and $3.80, and so I was bailed out with the $7.00 bid by Noble, with less of a loss - third time unlucky.

urgalzmine · 24 May 2009

noirua said:
Noble Group now have 57.2% (46.7 million shares) and it looks as if they will eventually get the company. So I have sold my stock which was my third venture, in buying four times since May 2008. Prices paid $11.80, $11.37, $10.80 and $3.80, and so I was bailed out with the $7.00 bid by Noble, with less of a loss - third time unlucky.

Dont be so quick to assume the sale is to go through apparently credit suise has 5.5% and another jap company has 5% and they may team up to block the sale. Apparently Noble need 90% to take over..

michael_selway · 19 June 2009

urgalzmine said:
Dont be so quick to assume the sale is to go through apparently credit suise has 5.5% and another jap company has 5% and they may team up to block the sale. Apparently Noble need 90% to take over..

Hey does anyone know why GCL is falling? isnt Noble goign to take them over for $7 per share?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.7 107.1 57.6 65.2
DPS 21.0 29.5 25.0 51.5

sqwark7600 · 21 June 2009

michael_selway said:
Hey does anyone know why GCL is falling? isnt Noble goign to take them over for $7 per share?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 28.7 107.1 57.6 65.2
DPS 21.0 29.5 25.0 51.5

The Noble offer closed on 17Jun09 resulting in their owning 87% of shares; thus they are no longer a buyer in the market. Price is now dependant on how the market views the takeover, the new board and what buyers will now pay.
rgds

noirua · 9 July 2009

urgalzmine said:
Dont be so quick to assume the sale is to go through apparently credit suise has 5.5% and another jap company has 5% and they may team up to block the sale. Apparently Noble need 90% to take over..

Spot on urgalzmine and blocked is exactly what the situation became, and I was wrong. At least I got out at $7.01 even though it was still a loss.

The situation now could be stalemate for a very longtime indeed. I seem to remember a company in the UK, it might have been Selfridges, leaving the situation for over 30 years and finally buying up the outstanding stock.
The story read something like this: Mrs T Wentworth refused an offer for her shares at £1 each some 32 years ago and has finally accepted £350 a share.

So GCL look a good hold if you can afford to wait. Put them underneath the bottom drawer.

urgalzmine · 9 July 2009

noirua said:
Spot on urgalzmine and blocked is exactly what the situation became, and I was wrong. At least I got out at $7.01 even though it was still a loss.

The situation now could be stalemate for a very longtime indeed. I seem to remember a company in the UK, it might have been Selfridges, leaving the situation for over 30 years and finally buying up the outstanding stock.
The story read something like this: Mrs T Wentworth refused an offer for her shares at £1 each some 32 years ago and has finally accepted £350 a share.

So GCL look a good hold if you can afford to wait. Put them underneath the bottom drawer.

hey Noirua,

You bought this stock on fundamentals, i would assume? Then the fundamentals are still there.

GCL is tagetting 2.8million tonnes productiong of coking coal, they ahve reduced debt from $15.8million to $8.3 million. Eventhough their contracts with Japan has reduced by 60%. I would think they are still selling coking coal for $70 a tonne?

jayinoz · 17 August 2009

The fundamentals on this stock are extremely good. Particularily in the Energy materials sector.

I can not find many broker recommendations on this stock and the trade volume per day is very poor for the size of the company.

Does anyone know why after a takeover bid of $7 that this stock is 15% below this figure.

With a PE of 5.5 and yield of near 5% it is a very attractive buy. Fundamentals alone is not a reason to buy, as history has told me.

Does the Management have issues? Sales poor- lossing most of its Japanese contracts. After a little bit of a look they seem to have great fundamentals yet lack that sales ability to generate contracts.

It has been $12 in the last year and does not seem to be recovering alongside all the other coal companies, why is this so?

Cheers

Jay

Sulfuras · 15 April 2010

Been a while since anyone had anything to say about this stock.

They are now trading at over $12. Noble is the majority stakeholder with over 80% of shares.

Looks like the EGM RE: the Macarthur takeover bid that was deferred until Monday the 19th will go ahead as planned and will probably result in a conversion of 0.84 Macarthur shares for ever 1 Gloucester share. This is positive news as Macarthur will be able to benefit from the PCI coal provided by Gloucester used to make steel. PCI coal is highly valued by steel makers because it burns more cleanly.

As of last week Macarthur has been the subject of a bidding war between Peadbody Energy, NHC and Xstrata on the condition that the Gloucester deal does not proceed. Xstrata has not made an official bid and is unlikely to make their move until after the EGM. Noble has recently announced to their home market in singapore that if this deal does not proceed they will offer remaining Gloucester shareholders $AU12.60 per share. However, I believe this offer is non-binding. Anyone have more info on this?

Can anyone shed some light on what will happen to the price of GCL shares if the proposal were to go ahead as planned? or if the proposal gets voted down at the meeting?

countryboy · 15 April 2010

not sure if this is correct but Noble did have a offer in to purchase the remaining 12 % of stock they dont have. Strange they stopped at 88% initialy as they only needed 2-3 % more to force the remaining 10 % to sell.

I bought in at $3.67 and exited at 9.20 anticpating Noble would want to wrap the remaining amount up . sure didnt expect Clouster to climb to $12 plus.
My eyes are now on other coal plays as we now have a number of predators out in the open.

position in cey and contemplating RIV and some explorers in QLD

Sulfuras · 6 September 2010

Anyone know when the Noble Offer of $12.60 will be finalised and when investors who accepted this offer will receive their cash?

Did anyone take up the retail entitlement offer at $9.25? I see the shares are now trading under GCLN at about $9.15. I've yet to receive confirmation of my holding.

Any thoughts on the new recapitalised Gloucester Coal?

noirua · 2 October 2010

Sulfuras said:
Anyone know when the Noble Offer of $12.60 will be finalised and when investors who accepted this offer will receive their cash?

Did anyone take up the retail entitlement offer at $9.25? I see the shares are now trading under GCLN at about $9.15. I've yet to receive confirmation of my holding.

Any thoughts on the new recapitalised Gloucester Coal?

A bit of a puzzle are Gloucester Coal in that it was almost taken over several times but isn't now afterall, or will it be. Many like the outfit longer term but speculation makes it difficult to work out how much the company is worth, going forward, depending what you think should be added to the mix.
Osendo Pty (BIDCO) hold 59.87% of GCL stock as of 1/10/10

GCL - Gloucester Coal

michael_selway

Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

noirua

sqwark7600

noirua

noirua

noirua

pacestick

noirua

pacestick

noirua

urgalzmine

michael_selway

Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

sqwark7600

noirua

urgalzmine

jayinoz

Sulfuras

countryboy

Sulfuras

noirua

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