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Free Webinar -- Dr. Howard Bandy -- Quantitative Technical Analysis

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howardbandy

Joined
13 June 2007
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Greetings --

I will be presenting a free webinar with material taken from my newest book -- Quantitative Technical Analysis.
You are all invited. Here is a link to the invitation:
http://hosted.verticalresponse.com/1061225/ec25631a42/521181691/1c52283158/

------------------

Free Webinar -- Dr. Howard Bandy -- Quantitative Technical Analysis You are invited to a free webinar. Dr. Howard Bandy will be discussing his newest book.

The book is in preparation. If everything goes well, publication is expected to be about October, 2014.

There is considerable new material in the book, particularly in three areas.

One is risk. I show how to quantify personal tolerance for risk -- even plot it on a chart. Then use risk tolerance to normalize trading system performance, determining the maximum safe position size, which I call safe-f, that will hold drawdown to within your risk tolerance.

Two is objective function. Following from risk normalization, a near-universal objective function, which I call CAR25, can be read from the distribution of trading results.

Three is position sizing. Nothing about trading system is stationary. Performance changes as the data changes and the model is unable to adjust completely. In particular, position size is not stationary. Management of trading is based on recent performance, which is the only indication of system health available. A trading management technique I call dynamic position sizing adjusts position size trade-by-trade to maximize account growth while holding risk of drawdown within your personal tolerance. When the system is beginning to fail, dynamic position sizing will reduce your the position size indicated for the next trade to zero, taking your system offline before bankrupting your trading account.

The book has its own website:
http://www.quantitativetechnicalanalysis.com/

There is a draft of the first chapter on the /book page.

Comments and suggestions are welcome.

Publication schedule updates will be posted on the book's page.

Best regards,
Howard
 

Interesting, will take a look for sure Always been interested in Quant stuff
 
Hi Wysiwyg --

2:00 AM, Thursday. Yes, I believe so. The timing is great for the US and Europe, poor for Australia.

But, register anyway. You will receive a link to a recording of the webinar you can listen to at your leisure.

Those of you who are interested in quantitative techniques will like this webinar. It discusses several key issues in trading system development and management. Several (safe-f, CAR25, and dynamic position sizing) are based on my original research and are being presented to a large audience for the first time:
1. Quantifying person risk tolerance.
2. Quantifying risk in any trading system.
3. Determining the maximum safe position size for the system, called safe-f. It is almost always well less than using all available funds.
4. Description of a near-universal objective function, called CAR25.
5. Discussion of what is stationary and what is not. Nothing about a trading system is stationary.
6. Position size is not stationary. The correct position size varies trade-by-trade. Calculation of position size must not be a component of the model -- it must be done as a separate procedure. I describe a procedure, called dynamic position sizing, for calculating it trade-by-trade. Dynamic position sizing gives a metric for comparing systems and for determining whether a system should be taken offline.

Forty-plus years of research and experience in a one hour webinar. What could be easier?

See you all there.

Best regards,
Howard
 
Thanks for the invitation Dr. B! Look forward to listening to your webinar.

(Probably the recording )
 
Thank you Howard. I'll surely catch your webinar. Being 14 hours in advance of Eastern Time zone; I will post you the daily SPI200 results.
 
I registered with MTA 15 mins. before start to catch this webinar and e-mail reply says

You will receive login details for this event a few hours prior to the start time, on the day of the event!
Click to expand...

This will be too late and I should have registered days ago apparently but hopefully I will get the recorded version.


EDIT : Checked e-mail again and link is there. All good.
 
Thanks to those of you who attended the presentation live -- 2 AM Melbourne and Sydney?

The presentation was recorded. As soon as I receive a copy of the recording, I will post a link to it here.

Best regards,
Howard
 
Thanks Howard,
missed the 2Am presentation(Brisbane) but looking forward to the recording
 
Hi Howard

Do you know if there is a formula, or other efficient way, for calculating safe-f other than by trial and error?

Thanks in advance
Calen
 
obiwanchernobyl said:
Hi Howard

Do you know if there is a formula, or other efficient way, for calculating safe-f other than by trial and error?

Thanks in advance
Calen
Click to expand...
Hi Calen --

There is no trial and error. Beginning with the personal risk tolerance of the trader and the set of trades that are the best estimate of future performance, there is a unique value for safe-f and CAR25.

There is a "root finding" operation involving in determining the value of safe-f. The relationship can be approximated with a simple ratio to get close in one step. Assume the trader's personal risk tolerance is $100,000, 2 years, 5% chance of 20% drawdown that I use consistently in the articles and videos.

Given a set of trades, estimate risk of a 20% drawdown when trades are taken at fixed size, so only the percentage change is used -- no other position sizing. That is, beginning-estimate-of-safe-f is 1.00.

Begin with the calculation of the risk of a 20% drawdown at f=1.00. Say it is 35%. First-estimate-of-safe-f will be close to 20% / 35%. Safe-f will be near 0.57.

The relationship is not quite linear, but 0.57 might be close enough. As each trade is completed, safe-f changes, going up as trades are good and going down as trades are poor.

Best, Howard
 
Howard is an expert in his field and i am just beginning to comprehend the issues
he really deserves our highest respects as not only are his material prime content but Howard has always shared them in this forum without reserve.
A thank you from the heart
PS i am not very good at expressing gratitude
 

well deserved QF

Unfortunately Howard gave up posting here
He was made less than welcome by muppets who
Had very little comprehension of his work.

ASF have lost countless experts over the years with narrow minded
Often veiled attacks. He just gave up.

Pity —— the forum has lost a onetime opportunity to be filled with
People not seen in any one common place.
 
Thanks Tech/a
Was not aware of the details but not surprise by how narrow minded some are, ended up using ignore.
Many people have an opinion, do not actually build one so facts do not matter and as they have the truth, nothing else matter

You can see this in divisive issues like global warming, politics, lately the metoo and black death by police, but sadly as well it seems in even technical fields like TA.

Sad world ruled by ignorants and brain deads.
repeating is not knowledge
 
The ignore feature is excellent.
used it a few times. Now with only one
long term resident! Cuts out noise.

Im sure Im on a few!
 
If you are on ignore Duck, the ignorance is rife.
When you post, I listen.
Don't think I have found anything you have posted, that I disagreed with.

Probably didn't like some, but your calling for an explanation of opinions has made me stop and think, on more than one occasion.
Hopefully Dr Bandy may return?
 
tech/a said:
The ignore feature is excellent.
used it a few times. Now with only one
long term resident! Cuts out noise.

Im sure Im on a few!
Click to expand...
I actually often disagree with mr Tech/a but i i val his experience and knowledge and if in disagreement, i always challenge myself to either stick to my view, or change if i am found faulty.
Great to not always agree but have proper polite challenge.
 
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