FLX - Felix Resources

noirua · 23 July 2006

Fourth Quarterly Report: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060721/pdf/3xn25vfzw21nl.pdf

noirua · 23 July 2006

The past year to end of June 2006 was a poor one for Felix, that is, if you compare this with early forecasts.

Felix will not be giving the full years details until 26th August and have failed to give the end of year profit figures, as yet. AGM on 27th October 2006.

Coal sales rose by 100,000 tonnes at Yarrabee, 922,000 tonnes at Ashton ( 60% owned ) and 888,000 tonnes at Minerva ( 70% owned ). How much coal was sold in the period at PCI prices, against the original expectations?

Prices of thermal coal varied during the year, starting strongly and finishing strongly, however, the average price over the year is important to the Final profits figure.

Demurrage ( shipping delay ) costs rose sharply to $5 million during the year with the biggest hit in the Final Quarter.

It will be interesting to see what dividend is declared with profits some $30 - $40 million down on expectations. Basically, with all the loans outstanding they can't realistically afford one this year.

I suppose Felix will be glad to get the year to June 2006 out of the way and show the encouraging expectations for 2007 onwards.

noirua · 24 July 2006

Felix are now at $2.32, - up 10 cents - as the rebound continues. Felix may be in talks with a possible partner in the Moolarben open-cut and underground mine; This would help with the cost of developing the latter.

noirua · 2 August 2006

Wilson HTM's analysts report for Felix Resources, " Turning the Corner ": http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20060724_Wilson_HTM_report.pdf

noirua · 3 August 2006

noirua said:
Wilson HTM's analysts report for Felix Resources, " Turning the Corner ": http://www.felixresources.com.au/analyst_reports/20060724_Wilson_HTM_report.pdf

Felix are back to $2.35 today after a bullish analysts report, should move on to test $2.50 shortly.

noirua · 7 August 2006

Well, Felix touched the all important $2.50 position on the chart last Friday and may find it more difficult to press on upwards from here.

@@@@@@@@@@@@ not quite finished yet!

noirua · 7 August 2006

Well, Felix touched the all important $2.50 position on the chart last Friday and may find it more difficult to press on upwards from here. The recovery shows a rise of over 50%, with no profit taking so far, on the back of more encouraging thermal coal prices and the valuation of the the jewel in the crown tenement at Moolarben.

Full years results are due on 26th August 2006.

noirua · 14 August 2006

Felix have fallen back a bit after the 50%+ run up. The full results are due on 26th August with continuing comments on the interest in the companies Moolarben prospect.

noirua · 14 August 2006

Sojitz have exercised their pre-emptive rights to purchase a further 15% of the Minerva Mine and Athena Project for $33 million, their stake is 45% with Felix holding 55%.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060814/pdf/3xz23hp7ydzqf.pdf

noirua · 17 August 2006

Felix are trading at $2.52 after the fall-back to $2.35 last week. May be building up steam for another run before the 2006 full results next week.

Sean K · 17 August 2006

Interesting.

If it holds above $2.50, $3.00 is looking good.

haemitite · 18 August 2006

Up over 2.70 today, a speeding ticket from the regulator is overdue

noirua · 19 August 2006

noirua said:
Felix does have a question mark, long term, costs versus profits.

Some seem to have forgotten ( that includes GSJB Were and all the other analysts and forecasters ) the other assets held by Felix Resources.

A). Phillipson Basin tenements in South Australia ( contains over 5 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal ) that include the Ingomar Trial Pit and 100 million tonnes of easily accessible coal. At present NRG Flinders Power Partnership, has an option agreement giving it the right to explore on, evaluate and purchase the tenements. If NRGF acquires the tenements Felix will receive an upfront payment and be entitled to royalties for coal produced from the tenements.
An agreement was signed in May 2004. If Flinders go ahead by May 2007 payments will markedly increase over the next 3 year period.

B). Felix have a holding in Hawks Nest ( 90% via their subsiduary S.A.S.E. )and the Peculiar Knob and Sequoia tenements. These are estimated to hold around 800 million tonnes of Iron Ore that varies between low and high grade. An evaluation is being carried out on Sequoia and Peculiar Knob, they hold approx 21 million tonnes of high grade iron ore.

C). Felix owns a 21.5% stake in ADC with Manager Ausmelt who hold 78.5%. This involves the building and supply of future top lanced ferrous technology. ADC also owns the Pig Iron evaluation plant that Felix has certain rights over through its 90% ownership of S.A.S.E.
S.A.S.E. owns the rights to the supply of Ausmelts Ausiron(R) top lanced technology in South Australia.
Felix also own 2.5% of Ausmelt.
Ausmelt have stated - http://www.ausmelt.com.au - that companies have recently shown increased interest in furthering a ferrous top-Lanced Pig Iron plant in South Australia.

D). Felix own 100% of Ballymoney Power and Associate Companies, which are being directed and Managed through Felix MD Mr Jon Parker. The Ballymoney Power mine holds approx 600 million tonnes of lignite in Ballymoney, Northern Ireland. The NI Government have put a hold on further exploration rights until November 2008.

E). Felix Gold Holdings, that were due to be floated in Canada about 11 years ago - it never happened. Felix have certain rights to royalties on these gold holdings. Felix have not made any comment on these holdings recently.

These Felix holdings remain of interest despite little or no comment on them by the new Managing Director, Mr Brian Flannery - paticularly the gold royalties. It could be that his eyes are focused only on the profit making thermal coal mines.

noirua · 21 August 2006

Felix have moved up 10 cents to $2.80 and appear to have the legs to easily pass $3.00.

Sean K · 21 August 2006

Been watching and would be worried about jumping on at a peak. Had a great run last 2 months for holders then.

noirua · 29 August 2006

Annual Report for the year ending 30th June 2006. Profit is $30.1 million, and was hit by demurrage costs. The dividend is 4 cents, record date 15th October for payment 30th October: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060828/pdf/3y5vc4w3n30d1.pdf

NB: 64 page download.

michael_selway · 29 August 2006

noirua said:
Annual Report for the year ending 30th June 2006. Profit is $30.1 million, and was hit by demurrage costs. The dividend is 4 cents, record date 15th October for payment 30th October: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060828/pdf/3y5vc4w3n30d1.pdf

NB: 64 page download.

Was it above ot below market consesus?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 10.1 11.3 22.1 24.7
DPS 2.0 3.4 6.4 6.2

thx

MS

noirua · 29 August 2006

michael_selway said:
Was it above ot below market consesus?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 10.1 11.3 22.1 24.7
DPS 2.0 3.4 6.4 6.2

thx

MS

The MD of Felix did say, before the results, that profits would be around $30 million, so market consenses may not have come into it.
The upside is well known, as far as Moolarben is concerned, and infact everything else stated yesterday.
What was not mentioned is the likely partner for the Moolarben Project and the figure they would have to pay for an interest. The possibility of interest from Westfarmers has been in the wings for sometime now.

noirua · 5 September 2006

The chart shows the next position to test is at $3.00, after Felix have moved firmly through and held well above the important $2.50 level.

michael_selway · 5 September 2006

noirua said:
The chart shows the next position to test is at $3.00, after Felix have moved firmly through and held well above the important $2.50 level.

Improved forecasts, doesnt have 2009 yet, but fwd termianl PE of 10 mightbe around $10

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2008
EPS 14.6 22.1 25.5 25.5
DPS 4.0 7.3 7.6 7.6

thx

MS

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