FLX - Felix Resources

Quillan said:

Hi Natasha,
Why must I go to Aussie Stock Forums to find out what is going on?
Brian Flannery apparently has made several public remarks in the past month or so. None reported on the website.
Several News Items by Agencies have appeared referring to the position concerning interested parties, and also possible investments in India or Indonesia. Two potentially disastrous moves in my opinion.
If Flannery reckons a fair exit price is above $15, then he should be announcing a Buy Back of shares, if money is burning a hole on the Company coffers.
What could be a better investment?
Here's a testing question. If the Company saw a Felix miner for sale at $8 per share with all the credentials of our company, and the money was available to purchase out of funds held, would the Board bid $8?
If the answer is "Yes", it must announce a Buy Back, in my opinion.
It is said that a deal has been done to contract thermal coal recently, at $70-$72 a tonne.
This is of material interest to shareholders. We shouldn't have to dig it out from obscure sources.
Living in Europe it is very difficult to find these news items.
How about a News Section on the website which prints every piece of 3rd Party comment on matters relating to Felix? Tittle-Tattle some of it maybe, but all of interest to shareholders.
Shareholders would submit items, because you have a very astute, alive bunch of dedicated supporters."Niorua" for instance, is outstanding in his /her knowledge of the market. Well he could be a Sheila !!
I am posting this on Aussie Stock Forums for comment. I hope you keep a close eye on this excellent Forum, because it tells us more than the Company does, in respect of other opinions, and News Agency comments.
Best wishes to your excellent Team.
Don't sell us SHORT.
John

Click to expand...

Its hard in this market for anythign to take off unless its an official takeover

Nevertheless, nice mini rally etc



Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 51.8 141.4 51.0 99.7
DPS 53.0 63.3 23.0 47.9


thx

MS

Citigroup said today that BHP, the world’s largest supplier of seaborne coking coal, has agreed to sell coking coal at $US115-$US125 a tonne to Japan’s Nippon Steel Corp.

“Prices are above market expectations, even for metallurgical coal bulls. A good outcome for producers in a clearly bear steel market,” Merrill Lynch said in a note.

South Korean steelmaker Posco confirmed it has settled pulverised coal injection prices at $US90 a tonne with Australian suppliers, down 63 per cent on year.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25215587-643,00.html

Assuming these prices (72USD for thermal/ $90 for coking) persist, AUD at .68 and no premium for Moolarben coal then my model shows felix worth $17.50. All the same with $8 premium for Moolarben is $20.

There are some of us wondering if Felix Resources is one of those companies, mentioned by Straits Resources, who is interested in purchasing the Jembayan and Sebuku coal mines - owned by Straits Res subsidiary Asia Resources- in Indonesia.

MD of Felix, Mr Brian Flannery, said the company was interested in purchasing Indian and Indonesian mines.

The shares of Straits Resources were put in trading halt this morning.

Felix stock price has moved up from a low of $4.82 to close today at $8.91. This looks very good, unless you know the high in 2008 was $23.30.

With thermal coal prices set for around US$70.00 a tonne against US$125 last time; PCI coal at around US$90 per tonne against US$210 last time ; and semi-soft coke at around US$105 a tonne against US$240 last time, we can see that the profits at Felix will plunge in the year ending June 30th 2010.

The above is offset by the currency exchange rate movement from AU$1.07 to AU$1.45 to the US$1. But that difference will not be enough.

noirua said:

Felix stock price has moved up from a low of $4.82 to close today at $8.91. This looks very good, unless you know the high in 2008 was $23.30.

With thermal coal prices set for around US$70.00 a tonne against US$125 last time; PCI coal at around US$90 per tonne against US$210 last time ; and semi-soft coke at around US$105 a tonne against US$240 last time, we can see that the profits at Felix will plunge in the year ending June 30th 2010.

The above is offset by the currency exchange rate movement from AU$1.07 to AU$1.45 to the US$1. But that difference will not be enough.

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Despite the above, there continues to be confidence that Felix Resources will be able to pay dividends. The interim dividend rose from 3c to 23c, though this includes a special 20c dividend because of excellent profits in the first half year to 31st Dec 2008.

If the 50c final dividend is paid it will make 73c for the year ending 30th June 2009. At $8.91 it would puts Felix on a yield of 8.2% fully franked. The dividend would cost about $143 million. Profits after tax was $161 million in the first half + $60 million gross in coal swap gains.

The second half year will be more difficult, as semi-soft coal sales and particularly PCI coal sales will be difficult, despite thermal coal sales from the Minerva mine coming in far higher on sales than expected. The third quarter will be helped by higher prices for coal until 31/3/2009. After this prices fall away steeply.
Felix are selling some PCI coal into the spot market at quite low prices.

Despite all this, sales should reach around 4.2 million tonnes and gross profits should be well over $400 million, including the $60 million in coal swaps. Net profits of at least $290 million, allowing for green tax reduction, will mean payment of the years dividends at $143 million will easily be covered.

The rise in flx seems to be out of proportion to that in other coal companies. I dont have time to check against all companies but it certainly has gained faster than cey mcc glc or whc I dont really know why

Felix Resources has asked the NSW government for permission to develop a new open cut mine near Singleton and increase production from its nearby underground mine. The new mine would produce 3.6 mta and the company wants to increase its underground production from the nearby mine to 5mta

I never have been too interested in coal miners. Perhaps its because they have too many pits (pun not really intended, but could not be ignored). However, I tend to go for gold, which is just as bad. Felix, however, has still some upside potential if all goes well. Maybe I will actually watch them to try and get over my negative feeling for coal miners.

Note: also trying to get to 10 posts, I want in for April comp!

Mines in QLD are now selling PCI coal on to the spot market and this is putting downward pressure on thermal coal. Customers in Japan and South Korea are keener to take better quality PCI at close to thermal coal prices.

Felix MD, Mr Brian Flannery, has said, "the company is now selling PCI coal into the spot market".

A number of ships are now leaving, or due to leave, the RG Tanna terminal, Gladstone Port, QLD, loaded with non-specific PCI coal listed as "Queensland PCI coal".

Felix Resources are rallying strongly in a buoyant coal sector and have bounced up to $11.70, up 73c yesterday, from the years low of $4.80.
Much of the increase is said to be on yield considerations and the MD's assurance of a 50c final dividend this year, and his confidence on the progress of Moolarben: Which is set to ship coal from the new Wiggins coal terminal in March 2010, with coal sold forward to partners in the open-cut mine, at market prices, for the next 25 years.

Pacestick says Felix has asked the NSW Government or permission to open a new mine to produce 3.6.tpa, or about 75% increase in today's production.
Noirua reports the MD as confirming the 50c Final Dividend and expressing confidence in the developnment of Moolarben.
I am outraged as a shareholder that none of these details appears on the website, nor are they sent out to shareholders on the mailing list. This is shabby treatment. Twice I have mentioned this let-down to the Company. They don't bother to reply.
See also my earlier post on 2oth March.
Thanks to you lot for telling me more about the Company's plans than they do.

Quillan try web sites like
http://www.miningcoal.com.au/
I constantly do google searches on shares I am interested in as more and more companies are giving less and less information to the asx. I dont know why this is happening

Thank you Pacestick, and others.
Here is Brian Flannery's reply to my comments about lack of information, received today.

Dear John
I note your suggestions on how to run the company. There is no dividend policy. The board will consider this after the Moolarben development is completed. Once the policy is decided you can be sure the shareholders will be advised.
Don’t believe all you read on blog sites most of them are rubbish, supported by people who would be better off, spending what little time they have left on earth, serving hot meals to the poor and homeless.
Our next quarterly report is due out on 29th April .
Thank you for your support and comments about our excellent team.
Best regards
Brian Flannery
Managing Director| Felix Resources Limited.

My reply follows:[/B][/B][/B]

Information on the Moolarben Project, near Mudgie, NSW and the Ashton mines, near Singleton, in the Hunter: http://www.moolarbencoal.com.au
http://www.ashtoncoal.com.au

Dear Brian,
That is a bit over the top. Of course I have no right or intention of suggesting how you should run the Company.

Where did I suggest anything about a Dividend policy?

I have commented on the excellent job you and your team are doing. So don't get miffed at a few suggestions about keeping shareholders informed.

Since these bloggers are so uninformed, I take it that you are denying the following comments purported to have been made recently outside the Company, attributed to you or the Company, and reported by these bloggers.

1, The final dividend of 50 cents for y/e June 2009 has been confirmed.

2. You have expressed interest in the Company possibly investing in mines in India and or Indonesia, [but not reported to shareholders on the website.]

"March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Felix Resources Ltd., an Australian supplier of coal to Korea and Japan, is studying acquisitions of energy coal assets in India and Indonesia after last month shelving talks to sell itself to another company.

“Indonesia and India are the two areas we are having a look at,” Brian Flannery, 57, managing director of Brisbane-based Felix, said in an interview. The company is talking to “large groups” in India that are looking to build new power stations, he said. Indonesia is the biggest exporter of energy coal".

[Of no interest to shareholders?]

.
3 Felix Resources has asked the NSW government for permission to develop a new open cut mine near Singleton and increase production from its nearby underground mine. The new mine would produce 3.6 mta and the company wants to increase its underground production from the nearby mine to 5mta"
[ Ditto? No Name supplied for either mine mentioned.]

4. "Felix MD, Mr Brian Flannery, has said, "the company is now selling PCI coal into the spot market".

5. Your interview for the Mudgee Guardian on 19th February was not exactly the easiest to find from 12,000 miles away, but thanks to a blogger who you think should be running a soup kitchen, I got to see it.

6.Yanzhou Coal Talks With Felix Resources Said to Stall on Price. Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Cathy Chan

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Yanzhou Coal Mining Co.’s talks to take over Felix Resources Ltd., whose stock gained 9 percent last year, have stalled after price disagreements, two people with knowledge of the matter said.

Shareholders of Brisbane-based Felix Resources, which supplies coal to Korea and Japan, have sought at least A$2.9 billion ($1.9 billion), one of the people said, declining to be identified because discussions are private. Yanzhou Coal, China’s fourth biggest producer, may be willing to pay as much as A$2.35 billion, the other person said. No formal offer has been made, the people said".

I regard all comments as very relevant to all shareholders, and therefore should be on the website, and disseminated in emails to those who have asked to be kept informed of all Company developments.

If you deny any of these comments, maybe you are right about suggesting some bloggers would be better employed helping the disadvantaged. But thanks to many of them, we get to hear about some of the comments being made, and interviews given. Most, I believe, have a genuine interest in the future of the Companty.

With best wishes,
John.

pacestick said:

Quillan try web sites like
http://www.miningcoal.com.au/
I constantly do google searches on shares I am interested in as more and more companies are giving less and less information to the asx. I dont know why this is happening

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Perhaps they are cutting down on costs as the ASX charge a fee every time. I notice a small company I'm invested in sent email updates only that they usually put through the ASX as well, not yesterday however.

Quillan said:

Thank you Pacestick, and others.
Here is Brian Flannery's reply to my comments about lack of information, received today.

Dear John
I note your suggestions on how to run the company. There is no dividend policy. The board will consider this after the Moolarben development is completed. Once the policy is decided you can be sure the shareholders will be advised.
Don’t believe all you read on blog sites most of them are rubbish, supported by people who would be better off, spending what little time they have left on earth, serving hot meals to the poor and homeless.
Our next quarterly report is due out on 29th April .
Thank you for your support and comments about our excellent team.
Best regards
Brian Flannery
Managing Director| Felix Resources Limited.

My reply follows:[/B][/B][/B]

Click to expand...

Well done Quillan, at least you got a reply.
Felix do pay dividends now so I no longer have to queue for my hot meals. Perhaps Mr Flannery could set up a refuge for the poor and homeless, mostly sacked from their jobs as miners recently.
I notice from the half yearly report that our illustrious MD was paid $100,000 for allowing land access by Minerva (51% owned by Felix). Perhaps he could consider donating it for his new soup kitchen.
Mr Flannery did say that he expects the Felix final dividend of 50 cents would be paid, but a decision is made by the board of directors at the appropriate time.

noirua said:

Perhaps they are cutting down on costs as the ASX charge a fee every time. I notice a small company I'm invested in sent email updates only that they usually put through the ASX as well, not yesterday however.

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makes you wonder about continuous disclosure obligations required by asx dosent it. Despite all that has been said recently and the nuisance of having to play sherlock to find out what the company is doing I am very happy with the companys potential growth its recently appreciation sp and the competence of the MD

This report from CNBC in February, with a $17.57 target price, was the main reason for the lift in the Felix Resources stock price: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1026789049&play=1