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I have the same view on Felix getting through this Worldwide deep recession comfortably. Coal profits may well halve per tonne for Felix in Year Ending June 2010 but Moolarben sales will help a bit, and profits should recover to Y/E 2009 levels in Y/E 2011, as output from Moolarben becomes very profitable. The odds, imho, are reasonable for the 53c dividend (excluding 20c special dividend) being maintained in the next few years.Looks like felix increased profit by about 220% An act not noted by the media who have raved on about wow increasing profit 10%. I am still of the opinion that this company will get through the downturn better than most other coal companies and have increased my shareholding on that belief
Felix Resources are studying possible purchases or involvement in Indonesian and Indian interests.
QUOTE]
I like Felix precisely because they are based in Australia. Country risk premiums for India and Indonesia are an enormous 11% and 13% respectively! Never mind that Indonesia has been nationalizing resource projects.
Flannery doesn't have any competitive advantage in India or Indonesia. He's just going to be some dumb cashed up westerner. If they need to do something with cash then buy back shares (selling at 1/3 of intrinsic value) or pay it out in dividends.
To understand the impact of the higher country risk. A $100 a year stream of cash in Australia over 10 years is worth $600 at Felix current cost of equity. The same stream in Indonesia is worth $375. To get that at 1/3 discount is about $125.
So if Flannery can buy $100 over 10 years for $125 outright in Indonesia - THAT IS THE SAME AS BUYING BACK FLX SHARES! Is anyone in Indonesia going to sell a 10 year life mine at a 1.25 multiple.
Thermal coal out of the Newcastle Port is trading at US$65.32 per tonne, or AU$101 per tonne. This is spot for 3 months delivery and it came close to US$60 during trading on Thursday.
The fact that Felix, like MCC and GCL, are moving towards thermal coal sales at these lower prices is worrying for Year Ending 2010. Moolarben coal sold in the period March to June 2010 will still be in the early start up high cost phase.
The US$70 - US$72 price range appears to have been set for thermal coal at 6,322K/cal/kg.Chubu, Japan's third-largest utility by capacity, and Xstrata have agreed on a price of $US70-$US72 a tonne for thermal coal under a contract for the next fiscal year, two persons close to the deal said Wednesday.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25171188-643,00.html
This is reasonably bullish for Felix.
Yanzhou may be willing to offer only A$10 to A$12 per share, valuing Felix at up to A$2.35 billion, one of the people said. Felix may want at least A$15 per share, said the other person.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aJLNxQwFYtk8&refer=australia
http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINPEK1350620090311?sp=true
Yanzhou Coal Talks With Felix Resources Said to Stall on Price
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By Cathy Chan
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Yanzhou Coal Mining Co.’s talks to take over Felix Resources Ltd., whose stock gained 9 percent last year, have stalled after price disagreements, two people with knowledge of the matter said.
Shareholders of Brisbane-based Felix Resources, which supplies coal to Korea and Japan, have sought at least A$2.9 billion ($1.9 billion), one of the people said, declining to be identified because discussions are private. Yanzhou Coal, China’s fourth biggest producer, may be willing to pay as much as A$2.35 billion, the other person said. No formal offer has been made, the people said.
Talks began late last year and the two companies have been unable to agree on terms as Felix investors want at least twice as much as the current market price of A$7 a share, said the people. Chinese companies have become more prudent in making overseas acquisitions after losing billions in the U.S., Europe and Africa since the global financial crisis began in 2007.
“While China is encouraging its companies to spend more on commodities and energy assets overseas, these acquisitions are still highly regulated because on concerns of improper use of their cash,” said Huo Teh-ming, professor of China Center for Economic Research at Peking University.
Zhang Baocai, a spokesman at Shandong-based Yanzhou Coal, didn’t reply to calls made to his office. Felix Managing Director Brian Flannery is out of Australia and unable to comment, his personal assistant said. Peter Brookes, a spokesman for Felix, declined to immediately comment.
Price Gaps
Felix surged 37 percent to A$7.43 on Dec. 5, the biggest gain since February 1989, after the Australian Financial Review reported Yanzhou was in talks to buy the company for more than A$3 billion. Since then, Felix has slipped 11 percent. Yanzhou gained 5.4 percent yesterday in Hong Kong, paring the stock’s drop this year to 20 percent.
Yanzhou may be willing to offer only A$10 to A$12 per share, valuing Felix at up to A$2.35 billion, one of the people said. Felix may want at least A$15 per share, said the other person.
China’s investment in resource producers totaled $22 billion last month, including Aluminum Corp. of China’s stake in Rio Tinto Group, as prices of commodities including coal and oil fell from July’s records. Yanzhou acquired its only overseas asset, Australia’s Austar energy coal mine, in 2005.
China, the world’s largest coal producer and user, uses the fuel to generate almost 80 percent of its electricity. As part of the government’s $585 billion economic stimulus plan announced in November, China accelerated approvals for the construction of power plants, underpinning growth in coal demand.
Managers Meet
Senior management of both companies met in the third week of February in Hong Kong and made little progress, the people said, asking not to be identified because the meeting was private. No date has been set for further talks, one of the people said.
Flannery said March 6 that Felix in February shelved talks to sell itself to an unidentified company. Felix “decided to move on,” he said in an interview at the time.
Felix had said in a Feb. 27 statement that the talks with the unidentified company were unlikely to be concluded in the “near term” because of the global financial crisis.
The company’s major shareholders include Flannery, 57, and Chairman Travers Duncan, each owning 15 percent. Hans Mende is a director who controls American Metals and Coal International Inc., which owns 19 percent of Felix. David Knappick, former chief financial officer, owns 7.4 percent of Felix, according to Felix’s 2008 annual report.
American Metals and Coal International Inc., a closely held mining investment company, bought a 19.2 percent stake in Felix for A$188 million on March 21, 2007. Felix sells part of its coal through AMCI.
Felix Resources is also studying acquisitions of energy coal assets in India and Indonesia, Flannery said in the interview last week. The Australian coal producer said last month first-half profit more than tripled to A$166 million as contract prices for thermal and coking coal rose to a record in 2008 on rising demand from utilities and steel mills in Asia.
To contact the reporter on this story: Cathy Chan in Hong Kong at kchan14@bloomberg.net.
A good point gfresh as the market quite obviously does not think a takeover is at all likely. Only AMCI could possibly bid for Felix among the companies major holders and as they are a private American company, with coal crash problems in the States, a bid looks totally out of the question.I am curious as to why the shareprice of Felix has been "kept in range" in the last week.. seems unusual compared to it's regular price action and as the rest of the market has been fairly strong. Just reminds me of the action on GCL for 2 weeks before the merger announcement.. May be nothing.
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