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FLX - Felix Resources

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Felix shareholders will have noticed once again that an announcement by WPG today upgrades the Peculiar Knob tenement to 19.4 million tonnes ( 63.7%fe) and together with Buzzard (60%fe) is now 26.1 million tonnes. This will increase production to 3 mtpa. Felix hold shares in WPG and royalties on production.
 
Felix Resources closed up 15 cents at $5.28 on their 21.5% interest in the Whyalla project that is managed by Ausmelt; On their JV with Ziniflex.

This means that Ausmelt's plans to float ADC by 2008 looks very close to fruition.
 
Citigroup have initaed coverage with a 5.90 target, but Hold recommendation. Their key points below

Initiate with a Hold - Felix offers exposure to the thermal, semi-soft and PCI coal market and significant production and earnings growth over the next three years. Some of the upside has been captured in the share price but single digit PERs and NPV growth await the patient investor. We initiate with a Hold, High Risk (2H) recommendation and a target price of $5.90.


Moolarben the Key - This mine is expected to produce up to 13mtpa of export and domestic thermal coal from open pit and underground mines at cash costs of ~$30/t in the early years. It will dramatically improve earnings in FY09e and transform Felix's investment fundamentals. Subject to settlement of a dispute, a mining lease should be granted within the next few months.

Ashton Production Increasing - The Ashton underground mine is being ramped up and should reach the target of ~2mtpa of semi soft coal in the 2007 December half. This additional production and modest coal price increases are the stock's near term profit drivers.

Mainly Thermal Exposure - Export thermal coal currently accounts for 48% of attributable production with semi-soft at 32% and PCI at 20%.Thermal declines to ~43% in 12 months with semi-soft at 45% but then increases to ~70% with Moolarben in production.
Unstable Register - AMCI has recently taken 19.2% of Felix with board and management holding another 41%. Given the appetite for quality coal operations, a bid for the company cannot be dismissed.
 
Most reports by analysts and others forget the value of FLX's other holdings, 21.5% holding in ADC; 2.5% holding in WPG and royalties on iron ore production; and the present sale or royalties on 5 billion tonnes of sub-bitumous coal at Phillipson, S.A.
 
FLX have continued up this week, as stock continues to be taken off the fence, and closed today at A$5.70 for another 20 cent lift.
Felix stock peaked at $5.90 and fell away quickly to $4.95. Following recent excellent iron ore news and Whyalla advancement, the S.A.S.E. (90% owned by Felix) now seems set to be greatly advanced in value by analysts, lest they forgot.
 
Strong again today Noirua. Wonder if the Xstrata problem is nearing agreement and is the catalyst for the upward movement??
 
Reefer said:
Strong again today Noirua. Wonder if the Xstrata problem is nearing agreement and is the catalyst for the upward movement??
Click to expand...

Hi Reefer et al, I can't find out any further information on the Xstrata/Felix/NSW Mining Manager Legal matter, to go before the NSW Supreme Court.

Recent movement may have involved a recent bullish stock review, WPG bullish iron ore results on surveys and Phillipson steaming coal prospects in S.A. There was a large share cross of around 700,000 shares yesterday - Could this be the former MD of Felix unloading?

Recent rally's and future rally's in the Hunter Valley may be on the minds of some. In particular the effects of longwall mining.

Some information, concerning the Moolarben Longwall mine, by protestors, has been presented incorrectly. Stated to be within 200 metres of the Goulburn River when correct information, in the new application, is at least 400 metres from the rivers.

Much of the problems concern the expansion of Xstrata's Ulan Mine by the addition of a 400 metre longwall. Felix have no interest or involvement in the Ulan Mine.
 
The Mining case with Xstrata and Mitsubishi, concerning access to land owned by them, for the Ulan Mine, that extends to the Moolarben Project is to start in the NSW Supreme Court on 20th September and week starting 24th Sept 07.

Meanwhile, the holding in WPG becomes more interesting as the stock reaches 89 cents this morning.
 
Felix Resources have been under the cosh last week as speculators on a possible bid probably dumped stock. Steady today, but with all the uncertainty over Moolarben, combined with the year end on June 30th 2007, it's difficult to know what will happen next.
 
Felix have recovered 10 cents this morning, but it looks unconvincing with all the stocks concerns about the Xstrata/ Mitsubishi Legal Matter that is set to be settled as far away as October 2007. The NSW Mining Warden may well announce a decision, on a Moolarben go-ahead, before the Legal outcome and leave the courts to make the final ruling on the matter.
 


With so many eyes on the Moolarben Project, in the Hunter Valley, some other projects are left forgotten, and that by analysts as well.

Athena, a prospective underground thermal coal mine, is a massive tenement in which Felix has a 51% stake, Soljitz 45% and Kores 4%. Positioned as it is alongside the open-cut Minerva mine.

With two strong partners pushing for an immediate go-ahead, production could reach 4 million tonnes per annum and could raise Felix's estimates of 15 million tonnes per annum of coal under management by 2010, to 19 million tonnes.

An announcement of coal upgrades, from inferred resource, could be announced quite shortly.
 
Felix have continued to weaken today and fell below the $5.00 level.

Felix seem to be getting as much coal away from Gladstone Port in June as possible - Year ends for FLX on 30th June 2007.

Coal to be exported by FLX during June from the RG Tanna Terminal at Gladstone Port. The coal comes from Felix's mines at Yarrabee and Minerva.

-Ship-..................-Date-..............-Tonnage-............Mine..............
Shin HeirYu.............18/6/2007.........36,900T...............Yarrabee
In Port

Hanjin Portkembia.....16/6/2007.........124,300T.............Minerva
Left Port

Hyundai Oceana191..19/6/2007.........13,600T...............Yarrabee
In Port

Gina Iuliano.............19/6/2007.........30,000T...............Yarrabee

China Excellence023..19/6/2007........17,000T...............Yarrabee

Amber Halo
Left Port.................7/6/2007..........22,000T...............Yarrabee

New Joy.................25/6/2007........135,000T...............Minerva


Total Tonnage for June - 378,700 tonnes. ( Minerva and Yarrabee mines )


Felix in their last Quarterly Report ( 9 months ) showed that 849,000 tonnes of coal had been sold from their mines at Minerva, Ashton and Yarrabee, in the last three months. Sales for the first 9 months were 2,680,000 tonnes of coal.
 
Felix Resources Lignite interests in Ballymoney, Northern Ireland, have had the issue of mining licenses suspended until November 2007. Prospects of any go-ahead has now been put back until 2009/10. The main opposition has come from the ruling DUP, now in Government.

The latest comments are as follows and are sometime ago: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/imported/article969822.ece

"Lignite in Ballymoney": http://www.geographyinaction.co.uk/Issues/Lignite.html

"Lignite in Ballymoney, arguments against": http://www.geographyinaction.co.uk/Issues/Lignite_anti.html

The ruling DUP Party comments on Lignite in County Antrim North: http://www.dup.org.uk/CanProfile.asp?CandidateID=145
 


The above link included an error and has therefore been corrected. It now takes you to the view expressed by the DUP concerning Lignite mining in North County Antrim. Apologies for duplicated post.
 
Felix finished down at $4.95 yesterday with trading near 1 million shares.
750,000 shares went through in small blocks of 25,000 and 50,000, all at $5.95 and at the end of the trading day.

This seemed not to be a matched trade.

In the last 12 months the larger shareholders added stock.

Gaffwick Pty added 2,300,000 and now hold 29,948,706 - 15.3%,
Ilwella Pty added 2,250,000 and now hold 29,450,000 - 15.0%,
Fibora Pty added 1,325,000 and now hold 14,550,000 - 7.4%,
Leopold Station added 750,000 and now hold 9,700,000 -4.9%,
Remond Pty added 750,000 and now hold 9,700,000 - 4.9%,
Covelane Pty reduced by 742,033 and now hold 3,733,800 - 1.9%.

( AMCI hold 19.2% of Felix; Purchased from RMM recently.)
 
In the last few days, numerous blocks of shares from 50,000 to 150,000 have gone through the market and always sold as a complete block.

A shareholder, Clovelane Pty., had reduced their holding in Felix before, and are thought to have sold about 1.5 million shares since Thursday, priced between $4.93 and $5.02. They probably hold about 2.2 million shares after Fridays transactions.
 
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