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You really don't get it, do you.Hey, I'm not on the team fudging the migration stats to confuse poor Joe Public .... come on Red, explain how the bottom line is derived.
And I see you are back to your usual trick of ignoring the too hard questions Red......so I'll repeat the question:
how many 40k+ net deficit refugees can we absorb?
I'll take a guess and presume your answer is- by increasing our intake of skilled migrants..........
Australia's aging population requires an influx of young blood to rebalance itself. It's a reason the baby bonus was implemented, and is also an important reason behind paid maternity leave.
Your maths is quite abysmal. If there were 20 columns of data the tabled totals would be more accurate. However, the totals are just "representative" of the 8 years' data.Here Red, chew on these outcomes of the Access Model.
The figures below are the cost per migrant category (allows for the number of migrants in each category).
Have a look at 'humanitarian or refugee' in particular Red. Those 11,186 we took last financial year are going to cost the country $332,000,000 over 20 years, in real $, not nominal. Hey, and that's only for their first 20 years. After that, they start hitting the pension, and that 332M will sky rocket.
Then, gee it looks like the 'parents-contributory' group aren't making a big enough up front visa payment to cover their drain on welfare. See how the nanny state complicates migration calculus Red?
So what was our legal obligation again Red? Oh yes...to bring in our fair share of anyone with a worse std of living than Australia's bleeding hearts....
No wonder the govt and liberal progressive media want to shut down the debate by calling anyone who questions this stuff a racist.....Joe Average would have a heart attack if he knew his kids would still be paying for the privilege of hosting refugees brought in under our watch.
Your maths is quite abysmal. If there were 20 columns of data the tabled totals would be more accurate. However, the totals are just "representative" of the 8 years' data.
Doh!!! walked right into that one Red.....but au contraire, it is your math and impetuousness that is on full show.
If you had checked the 20 yr totals, you would have realized they were not a mere summing of 8 columns, but summing of a 20yr extrapolation, as per the expanded chart below. But, I have your measure now....
The refugee category turns positive after 12 years (not shown in the table). And the average working life of this category on entering Australia is considerably more than 20 years. The table also does not show the significant uptick in surplus for this cohort after 20 years, when the children of this group begin to make a contribution to our economy similar to Australian born. This cohort has, on average, more children than Australian born, meaning the average migrant family will ultimately deliver a better return.
That does not change the bottom line, which shows that in every year net migration has a positive outcome.
That's on the basis GSMs stay employed (see The Age link above) and our intake of humanitarians and refugees doesn't increase (which bleeding hearts aggressively petition to increase with scant regard for capacity to assimilate).
And your major premise is, no matter what strife the world's Muslims get up to, and self create a blow out in global refugee numbers, Australia is bound by law to take in not just 11,000pa, but 50,000, 100,000, 500,000, 1,000,000.
The problem people like me have with people like you is your unblinking support of dill laws that deny the rights of Aussies to protect their std of living.....And the higher the number of migrants coming in under family parents and humanitarian/refugees visas, the more taxpayer money gets diverted from upholding our std of living......but anyone who talks about putting a ceiling on this stuff gets branded a racist by self righteous and emotionally labile guilt industry goons, like David Marr. The Marrs of the world wouldn't have a clue why net foreign liabilities are going up.....they just presume because they are sitting on easy street, Australia is a rich country.
The other aspect which you just don't get is that the contribution of refugees is quite dissimilar to other categories due to their lower average age. Accordingly, longer run data for the cohort would likely show the average adult refugee (at time of entry) to have made a net positive contribution.
The longer any data run is, the more likely a positive net contribution, in nominal terms. But subject that to net present value consideration of opportunity cost, and you get a different story. The earlier capital is invested in net surplus operations, the greater the compounding multiplier effect.
Not surprisingly, it takes a long time for any child (migrant or otherwise) to reach working age, and their comparatively large number skew the data for the early years.
What standards of living have reduced during our 200 years of immigration? It's a line that gullible xenophobes might swallow, but few others.The problem people like me have with people like you is your unblinking support of dill laws that deny the rights of Aussies to protect their std of living.....And the higher the number of migrants coming in under family parents and humanitarian/refugees visas, the more taxpayer money gets diverted from upholding our std of living......but anyone who talks about putting a ceiling on this stuff gets branded a racist by self righteous and emotionally labile guilt industry goons, like David Marr. The Marrs of the world wouldn't have a clue why net foreign liabilities are going up.....they just presume because they are sitting on easy street, Australia is a rich country.
First, the model was originally developed in the Howard era, and updated in 2008 to better incorporate longitudinal study results and changes to visa categories and support systems. That aside, the original cohort delivers a net positive financial benefit for every out year, increasing year on year, so it becomes somewhat superfluous to prove the point further.One has to remain suspicious of why Access Economics only used a 20 years time frame. If a longer time frame would have benefited Labor migration policy, then you'd think they would have exploited that to allay public concern about excessive migration.
All this blue text is driving me crazy. Helicart, please read this thread on using the quote tags correctly: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2737
Agree totally Joe.
Blue is a lousy colour.
Would maroon be ok?
gg
...
But they like to suppress what is going on with the many who don't, such as is ever more common amongst Lebanese/Islamic and Sudanese communities....and ethnic based gang violence and crime.
...
What standards of living have reduced during our 200 years of immigration? It's a line that gullible xenophobes might swallow, but few others.
Unable to present a cogent case of your own you prefer to use derogatory terms for those with opposing views. It's an unproductive and gutless way of debating.
hahahaha.....so gutless isn't derogatory?
What is gutless is your repetitive refusal to address changes in Australia's birth rate and housing affordability stats.
First, the model was originally developed in the Howard era,
your point being?
we can understand Howard hiding pro migrant data.....but what about Rudd?
and updated in 2008 to better incorporate longitudinal study results
oh so Rudd did stretch the term.....but not beyond 20 years hey?
and changes to visa categories and support systems. That aside, the original cohort delivers a net positive financial benefit for every out year, increasing year on year, so it becomes somewhat superfluous to prove the point further.
All this blue text is driving me crazy. Helicart, please read this thread on using the quote tags correctly: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2737
Your assumptions have been poorly based, and this one is no exception.You still haven't demonstrated how the study derived the bottom line, presumably because you have no idea, just like me.
Your assumptions have been poorly based, and this one is no exception.
You have not proved any of the points you raised (except when stating the bleeding obvious). You have not disproved any of my points.
You want me to respond to broad questions which you cannot link to the thread's theme, but ask repeatedly.
They only seem broad to you Red cos you are a micromanager, and have never had responsibility for, or had to consider the consequences of, connecting the dots. Like the typical social democrat that you are, you spend all your time reading about how to redistribute the pie, and zero about creating a bigger sustainable pie.
If lefties knew anything about economics, and could sustainably fulfill their platform promises, they'd never get voted out.....the electorate would be in welfare heaven. But reality is different.
When cornered you change the topic.
Only in your head, Red
I have seen no evidence that migration is overwhelming our borders, nor (on the whole) that it has a deleterious impact on our society or economy.
Observer bias again Red.....$332 million and the NPV opportunity cost of that just went down the gurglar based on last year's humanitarian/refugee intake....just think about all the solar tech research that could have been funded by 332m....gee I could have stayed in academia for much less than that, doing the pure research to create cleaner analgesics than opiates.....
What further bugs me about bleeders like you Red, is that you would preferr Mahatma Gandhi had stayed in London and be a solicitor, rather than go back to India and advance the cause of all Indians.......
You can continue to beat your drum here, but I am moving on.
myopic perspective
Well I don't think you could accuse rederob of being colour blind?:
But..
In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is King.
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