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FGE - Forge Group

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ROE said:
Nothing change I am afraid, all collapse and value destroying companies has similar theme.
This is a decent book to read on this topic

http://www.booktopia.com.au/pigs-at-the-trough-adam-schwab/prod9781742169903.html
Click to expand...

If you want to go back a bit further; it's out of print but well worth a read if you can get your hands on a copy.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Bold-Riders-Australias-Corporate/dp/1863737022

Table of Contents

 
burglar said:
New at this, I have tried reading the candlesticks.
I cannot see it coming, even with hindsight.

View attachment 56833
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You can't read candlesticks candle by candle any more then you can read a novel analysing each word at a time. You must understand the flow of the narrative, take notice of the plot, consider the underlying themes and read between the lines. The problem with candlestick techniques is they tend to force you to read into it one candle at a time. The fact that this stock gapped down and lost 93%, been in multiple trading halts, and has no clear trend is an indication that this stock is in trouble.

A stock without professional operators in it won't react in advance to good or bad news. If you only have a bunch of retail traders in a stock, whose going to find out ANZ is withdrawing their support and then exit with such large volume as to put out warning signs? The professionals did do this when they were putting million share lots on the market at any price. When professional operators dump their entire holdings on the market at any price this is a panic situation. Normally they would slowly distribute their shares. They want out right this second that they put in a market order for everything, well in excess of the normal order book. After they exited, there was no one left. In bigger stocks with professional interests the professionals will start to wind down their holdings which can warn you if they think bad news is coming.
 
Valued said:
When professional operators dump their entire holdings on the market at any price this is a panic situation. Normally they would slowly distribute their shares.
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Slightly off topic, what would a fund that tracks the ASX200 do if a stock fell out of that category during the S&P rebalancing? Do they dump everything on the day?
 
The Equivolume chart of FGE is interesting.



As much volume changed hands in the last few months as the prior 6+ years since listing.

Interestingly someone buying on the first day following the demerger that created FGE and selling on 28/11 at 57.5 cents (mid range point for the day and likely somewhere near VWAP) would have made an annualised return of approx 17.5% from the fully franked dividends received.

Those speculating since the announcement that really put the writing on the wall, have received no income from the company, and were left holding the bag when the music stopped.

Ps

I know the above is just the aggregate picture and individuals will have had different outcomes, some better and some worse – but still it’s interesting to contemplate the average outcomes.
 
Klogg said:
Slightly off topic, what would a fund that tracks the ASX200 do if a stock fell out of that category during the S&P rebalancing? Do they dump everything on the day?
Click to expand...

I think s&p give plenty of notice prior to a stock add or will remove from the index in the next rebalance
So in theory you know weeks in advance to buy/sell
 
Klogg said:
Slightly off topic, what would a fund that tracks the ASX200 do if a stock fell out of that category during the S&P rebalancing? Do they dump everything on the day?
Click to expand...

They rebalance every quarter, and they announce the changes two weeks before the rebalance.
 

That is indeed an amazing chart Craft, a picture does paint a few words!
 
Klogg said:
Slightly off topic, what would a fund that tracks the ASX200 do if a stock fell out of that category during the S&P rebalancing? Do they dump everything on the day?
Click to expand...

S&P would announce addition or deletion, funds would exit by implementation day (in this case, it was announced last week and implemented by friday - FGE removed, NEC added)
 
In hindsight David Simpson always did look like a bit of a doofus when talking. There was just no passion or excitement. I know the industry does not lend itself to big stages and charismatic unveiling of new products but he just seemed so bland and boring and like he didn't care much.

He harped on a lot about safety but there needed to be more talk about projects and money. All he ever did was say how large the order book was.

His last name is also Simpson. I am not sure how anyone didn't see that!
 
McLovin said:
If you want to go back a bit further; it's out of print but well worth a read if you can get your hands on a copy.

http://www.amazon.com/The-Bold-Riders-Australias-Corporate/dp/1863737022

Table of Contents
Click to expand...

In 1989, as undergraduates, we got Quintex (remember Christopher Skase?) to throw a party at The Mirage, Southport, worth about $25,000 (at that time) for about 150 people (mainly students) as the opening event of an international student conference. I was the chairman of the organising committee. We even had live sheep shearing on stage! That event must have occurred very close to the collapse of Quintex. Those were the days. RIP Christopher Skase.
 
Klogg said:
Slightly off topic, what would a fund that tracks the ASX200 do if a stock fell out of that category during the S&P rebalancing? Do they dump everything on the day?
Click to expand...

When i did my initial research on STW i noticed that they actually held 203 stocks, so i dug a little and found a disclaimer along the lines of...due to movement of stocks into and out of the ASX200 from time to time the fund may hold additional stocks etc etc.
 
Didn't take long for IMF to come and start trying to pick some scraps of meat off the bones of the rotting carcass, did it?
 
Shareholders who purchased shares in Forge after 1 January 2013 and who held some or all of those securities at any time between 4 November 2013 and 11 Februrary 2014 may be eligible...
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Why are shareholders who purchased after 1 January 2013 eligible?
 
I held in that time but made up most of my loss by day trading FGE the next day. I wonder if I am still eligible. The day trades were separate. I did lose that money and it was only since I added on more to day trade with that I got back up there. I will probably give it a go when IMF asks for interested litigants. I didn't lose much but it might be nice to get a little bit back.
 

How much you made from day trading FGE is completely irrelevant to how much you lost from holding FGE through the period in question as far as the class action is concerned.
 
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