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FDM - Freedom Oil and Gas

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Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

basilio said:
MAD is still running hard. Came across an excellent analysis of the stock which offers a very compelling current and future picture. Look down to the entry for Saturday 28th Jan.

http://www.jochimaker.com/
Click to expand...

So is today's quick change DOWN today a reaction post-asx querying why stock holders are paying so much (see mad.asx announcements)?

Does anyone foresee and improvement to the downturn today? Can't find another obvious reason...
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Nothing climbs in a straight line and MAD's has been too rapid not to take a correction somewhere. But the fundamentals remain, MAD is still attractive in terms of the pricing of 2P reserves with frequent drill results due in the next few months and I would expect that a recovery wouldn't be too far away.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

It has been a meteoric rise in the past few days. I think a correction like today might shake up some of the day traders who must have been making a mint this week and were hoping for a continuation.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

My guess last night was that there would be a retrace, but when I saw this morning that it hit low 80's, I thought I was wrong. I was tempted to buy in at that price, but luckily I didn't, because it did retrace
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

This price action is absolutely crazy. Current price requires the assumption that management will increase production from approx 1000 bopd to 2000 bopd by the end of the year with about an average of 1500 bopd for each day for the entire year. This is just valuing it purely on production and not the crazy reserves. Based off reserves a dollar isn't too far off fair value though, so it's hard to decide to sell or hold.

JM.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Well its happy days at our place. Currently teaching my Step Daughter to trade and one of her first four is MAD on which she is up 46%.

On the size of buys during the day there must be something very big behind this but there is little else but the trend to go on from what I can see.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

explod said:
Well its happy days at our place. Currently teaching my Step Daughter to trade and one of her first four is MAD on which she is up 46%.
Click to expand...

Dangerous place to be.

On the size of buys during the day there must be something very big behind this but there is little else but the trend to go on from what I can see.
Click to expand...

Trade size indicates retail.
I expect some prolonged consolidation in the near future
after a retracement of 30-50%---400% in a month will see a pause.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Tech/A Just wondering for your reasons for believing MAD will substantially retrace. What are your views on the fundamentals of the company - reserves, production and likelihood of increases in these as drilling expands ?
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

basilio said:
Tech/A Just wondering for your reasons for believing MAD will substantially retrace. What are your views on the fundamentals of the company - reserves, production and likelihood of increases in these as drilling expands ?
Click to expand...

Forums are littered with stories of those who bought into parabolic rises at the tops and watched as the stock went down as quickly as it went up. Many purchases were based on 'fundamentals' but while they waited thinking that the next drilling result/mine open/takeover was just around the corner and would push the price higher, they sat idly by as prices fell dramatically and in doing so lost a lot of capital that could of been used on multitudes of other opportunities in the months/years before they sold in their fundamental dream because they couldn't bare a loss.

I've been there done that with fundamentals and learned my lesson.

Here are some basic examples of parabolic rises followed by large falls in a very short time frame. And while it doesn't guarantee MAD will follow the exact same pattern, regardless for me the probability is very high it will retrace significantly.




See the similarities so far between these and MAD?
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

basilio said:
Tech/A Just wondering for your reasons for believing MAD will substantially retrace. What are your views on the fundamentals of the company - reserves, production and likelihood of increases in these as drilling expands ?
Click to expand...

Im a technical trader
I have no interest in Fundamentals.

Robbo
Has explained well the likely technical pattern I expect.

There is always a risk when trading off a higher high that you will get a turn around.
I expect that to occur after next open or very soon after that.
Based upon the last few days price action.

For discretionary technical traders its about minimising Risk and maximizing profit.
When risk out weighs profit then best (For me) to stand aside.
I could be wrong__
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Oil up more overnight, stock has reasonable momentum so there should be more in it.

Stop at .76 which is at the bottom of the ATR of the up channel. Just happens to coincide near my preferred 5%.

On that last point I do like to monitor overall market goings on to allow some latitude as daily swings of more than 10% have to be factored into stops.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

When is the ann coming out for this company?
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

vas77d said:
When is the ann coming out for this company?
Click to expand...

Interim report to 31 December is expected around the end of February - see last Quarterly report.

Meanwhile, the market's buying up the SP in anticipation of a good result and/or further good drill results.

I hold.

 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

is this a retrace or just another small step back before another upturn.....
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

tech/a said:
Dangerous place to be.



Trade size indicates retail.
I expect some prolonged consolidation in the near future
after a retracement of 30-50%---400% in a month will see a pause.
Click to expand...


Hmmmm!
Hows the training going?

I could be Right--well partially so far.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

tech/a said:
Hmmmm!
Hows the training going?

I could be Right--well partially so far.
Click to expand...

Took some profits late last week, I would take more today but the student is wanting to hold.

I see a break to the downside now.

Not in the stock myself by the way.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

If I hadn't seen the great rise in the recent weeks then I would be bullish. As it stands I am tempted to take note of what is said here and say it's down to sideways at best.

Looks like a pause before continuation. Reasonably low volume down day closing near highs.



Let's see what tomorrow holds....VERY glad I am not holding this one overnight. But over the month would have been fine!
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Have taken my original outlay and some profit out over the last week, however keeping the rest as I think this has still a bit to go in the long run. If there is any substantial dropback will be buying more.
As long as they can keep up the increasing momentum with the new rigs and with upgrades in reserves to add from Boling and Nash before the end of the financial year, MAD is still capable of being multiples of this price by July.
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Technically yesterday wasn't to bad
 
Re: MAD - Maverick Drilling & Exploration

Tech - been interested in a few of your posts - have been looking at RED a fair bit too (but understand why you may not be posting on that forum now due to other members). Out of curiosity, understand you're not interested in fundamentals, but as part of your TA, do you keep an eye on expected announcement dates? How do you manage the potential impact of an announcement? Or would this simply be covered by a stop?
 
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